tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post2184736769950048994..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Friday Baseball PostJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-33472994503248303552012-05-12T22:57:21.796-05:002012-05-12T22:57:21.796-05:00Upon further reflection, there are 18 players per ...Upon further reflection, there are 18 players per game (who could each have a four-HR game). So that's as common as an unassisted triple play. The perfect game is the common one.Dan Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12947782079761530102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77713699776970398592012-05-12T19:38:01.059-05:002012-05-12T19:38:01.059-05:00Yep. Basically every sport has at least some thin...Yep. Basically every sport has at least some things like this. Just this year, Messi became the first ever to score five goals in a Champions League game.Clarehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11096144651776881954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-4574129695382592942012-05-12T13:00:24.220-05:002012-05-12T13:00:24.220-05:00"I've said this before -- there's jus..."I've said this before -- there's just nothing like this in other sports."<br /><br />Because baseball keeps way more stats than any other game? If basketball allowed four point shots and the reverse nerfherder then it would have more records to break too. If they made baseball even slower, more deliberate, and more turn-by-turn then the records could really fly.backyardfoundrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-43020444331870301252012-05-12T12:50:47.916-05:002012-05-12T12:50:47.916-05:00It seems to me that unassisted triple plays are in...It seems to me that unassisted triple plays are in actuality rarer than the other two. After all, the number of chances for a perfect game to have occurred is equal to the number of games that have been played (there can only be one perfect game per game played). Same goes for the four-HR games, more or less. But theoretically an unassisted triple play could occur in any given half-inning, so there have been 18 times as many chances for it to happen.Dan Millerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12947782079761530102noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-72147773908173085562012-05-12T11:30:42.609-05:002012-05-12T11:30:42.609-05:00Er...in a 4 PA game...Divide games by by 5 for a 5...Er...in a 4 PA game...Divide games by by 5 for a 5 PA game.Don Coffinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07198988872512792834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-34140063750020704292012-05-12T11:27:14.098-05:002012-05-12T11:27:14.098-05:00Addendum: the likelihood (once every X games) of ...Addendum: the likelihood (once every X games) of 4 HRs in a 5 PA game at various HR rates:<br /><br />2%......6,250,000<br />3%......1,234,568<br />4%......390,625<br />5%......160,000<br />6%......77,160<br />7%......41,649<br />8%......24,414<br />9%......15,242<br />10%.....10,000<br />11%.....6,830<br />12%.....4,823<br /><br />I said I am strange. Do you believe me now?Don Coffinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07198988872512792834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-86092474897668629752012-05-12T11:19:35.352-05:002012-05-12T11:19:35.352-05:00I'm strange, and I admit it. How *likely* is ...I'm strange, and I admit it. How *likely* is it that a player who hits home runs at a rate comparable to Hamilton's will hit 4 HRs in a game?<br /><br />Hamilton has hit 135 HRs in 2649 PA, or about 5% of his PAs are HRs. A player who hits HRs at that rate will hava about a 1-in-150,000 chance of hitting HRs in 4 consecutive PAs. Assume 5 PAs in a game, and that's once every 30,000 games.<br /><br />Assume 15 players per year with a 5% frequency of HRs. Since 1920, that's 1,380 player-seasons. At 150 games/season, that's 207,000 player-games. So our *expectation* would be about 7 games with 4 HRs in a game. Of course, some players hit HRs at a higher rate [Ruth (7% of his PAs), McGwire (7.6%)]. Accounting for that would (roughly) double our expectation. So the actual total of 16 seems about right.<br /><br />Which leave unexplained Mike Cameron (once in 650,000 games) and Mark Whitten (once in 1,250,000 games).Don Coffinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07198988872512792834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20201359673449878662012-05-12T11:01:51.894-05:002012-05-12T11:01:51.894-05:00Righetti's no-hitter is the first sporting eve...Righetti's no-hitter is the first sporting event I have a recollection of. 4th of July party at my parents house in upstate new york, I was 4. Probably 25 Yankees fans in attendance. Against the Red Sox. Obviously left quite an impression on the children.Matt Glassmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-73425071941420854932012-05-12T10:40:33.955-05:002012-05-12T10:40:33.955-05:00You've got your no-hitters mixed up. Righetti ...You've got your no-hitters mixed up. Righetti ended by striking Boggs out, Charlie Hayes caught a popup to end one of the Yankees' no-hitters of the late 1990s -- or wait, maybe the 1996 World Series.<br /><br />I was there for Strasburg's second game ever, in Cleveland, which was also pretty compelling.Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18440356770947146690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75166633871114155502012-05-12T09:40:27.513-05:002012-05-12T09:40:27.513-05:00I saw John Valentin's unassisted triple play, ...I saw John Valentin's unassisted triple play, and of course, like all of them, the noteworthy part is how surprised the player is at the end of doing it.<br />I also saw Matt Young's no-hitter that wasn't when he lost in Cleveland 1-0 and the Commissioner Fay Vincent said that didn't count in the books because he only pitched eight innings. Losing a no-hitter both on the scoreboard and the record book is quite the anti-feat.Michael Geehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15720463703069139975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-19508530579761461032012-05-12T09:09:13.134-05:002012-05-12T09:09:13.134-05:00An unassisted triple play is like a thunderbolt: i...An unassisted triple play is like a thunderbolt: it's over in an instant. The multi-homer games crescendo over the course of the game, as do no-hitters & perfect games. I don't know which is more memorable -- or if the difference is worth pointing out. I was at Righetti's no-hitter vs. the Red Sox on July 4, 1982, & the only thing I remember about it is the final out (Wade Boggs fouling out to the 3rd-baseman, whose name escapes me: Charlie-something?) The most electrifying game I've ever attended that kept up the drama over several innings was Strasburg's Nats debut a couple of years ago. Total fascination with virtually every pitch he threw from start to finish. And complete domination over the Pirates.Arlington BigFishnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-44229800829203715222012-05-12T01:49:38.906-05:002012-05-12T01:49:38.906-05:00That was back when I watched Mariners games. x-xThat was back when I watched Mariners games. x-xCrissahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389565751169783614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-49691826448107767402012-05-11T23:59:13.235-05:002012-05-11T23:59:13.235-05:00It's also interesting that cycles and no-hitte...It's also interesting that cycles and no-hitters are, in a rough way, about equivalent in rarity, too. I think there's been about a hundred-something of both. But that info is outdated by a few years, and I don't remember how close they actually were. Not wildly different, anyway. Basically you get a couple-three a year, usually.Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18440356770947146690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-10917356550883964422012-05-11T23:56:41.250-05:002012-05-11T23:56:41.250-05:00I've never seen a no-hitter in person, but I w...I've never seen a no-hitter in person, but I was at the game in which Randy Velarde pulled an unassisted triple play against the Yankees. The interesting thing was that, it took about a tenth of a second, seemingly. Line drive, tag, bag -- boom, inning over. It took a few seconds to grasp the magnitude of what had happened. I'm really glad I had my eyes on the field!Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18440356770947146690noreply@blogger.com