tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post2257066310136682693..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Train Wreck 2011?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-16464545690853863312010-07-18T20:21:04.238-05:002010-07-18T20:21:04.238-05:00Well, I expect that the generic ballot question pe...Well, I expect that the generic ballot question percentages will turn around for the Dems right before the election, Silver will tweak his model and his reputation will be intact. The scam is almost perfect. Because the very last polls before an election are generally fairly close to the actual result, we are treated to an exciting and completely false horserace narrative. Because he gets the final prediction correct, Silver will be perceived as retroactively right for his April prediction. The fact that I can confidently predict that the Dems will lose no more than 30 and more likely 15-20 seats will be dismissed. Nobody agrees and nobody even thinks it is possible to predict the outcome this early. I'll just say this. Until about 6 weeks before the election, the polls don't do a significantly better job of predicting the outcome of a House election than the outcome of the previous comparable election (2006 in this case). If you have to make a bet today, bet that the outcome of this election will be exactly like 2006.William Ockhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13795149116565627671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-41329151014319771282010-07-18T19:59:00.833-05:002010-07-18T19:59:00.833-05:00>People in the media (and that includes Silver ...>People in the media (and that includes Silver now) have a huge incentive to sell the horserace narrative.<br /><br />Silver came to prominence because of his remarkably accurate predictions about the primaries and the general election in '08. If his estimates of the '10 elections are off, it will hurt his reputation.Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-12596454103450353982010-07-18T19:36:46.627-05:002010-07-18T19:36:46.627-05:00The passage you quoted is exactly why Silver's...The passage you quoted is exactly why Silver's post is nonsense. His whole premise is that the Dems are going to drop to about 47% of the vote. That would be down from 58% of the vote in 2008 and 56% in 2006. Just go look up the data and tell me the last time there was that big of a swing in a midterm election. <br /><br />To have that big a swing, the only possible explanation is a huge number of people voting on the basis of economic performance. That just doesn't happen anymore. Look at the graph here:<br /><br />http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/07/what_might_happ.html<br /><br />I don't completely agree with Gellman's analysis, but his graph is very instructive. <br /><br />Finally, the reason I say I don't understand why people accept this nonsense is that it seems rather obvious that if you look at the data, you should be able to see that the error terms on Silver's analysis are huge. Go back to the his post and click the link on the word "debate" in the first sentence you quoted. <br /><br />People in the media (and that includes Silver now) have a huge incentive to sell the horserace narrative. Just go back and look at all the stories had the presidential race in 2008 "deadlocked" or even McCain ahead long after it was clear to me and anyone else paying attention that the Dems were going to win. The hope of the Republican party taking back the House is much more interesting for pundits, bloggers, and even poli sci profs. The truth is that unless they make serious changes, the Republican party is pretty much doomed. By 2016, there will be enough Hispanic voters in Texas that my home state will become competitive. When that happens, the Republican party is pretty much doomed in a two-way Presidential contest. It will be harder and harder to sustain the illusion that they will get back in power.William Ockhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13795149116565627671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-12292542136526766002010-07-18T02:20:36.876-05:002010-07-18T02:20:36.876-05:00William Ockham:
The simple answer is that the 538...William Ockham:<br /><br /><i>The simple answer is that the 538 post you point ignores the changing demographics of the American electorate.</i><br /><br />How does that affect Nate Silver's analysis? This is the key assumption:<br /><br />'Although analysts debate the precise magnitude of the difference, on average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats' performance in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote -- which works out to a loss of 51 seats, according to our regression model.'<br /><br />I suppose demographic changes could affect the relationship between the generic ballots polls and the actual vote, but it's not obvious why or in what direction.<br /><br />Btw, Silver has another post arguing that district by district analysis supports a similar conclusion.<br /><br />http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/npr-survey-of-swing-seats-is-consistent.html<br /><br /><i>Everyone has missed the fact that economic voting has been declining dramatically since the 90's.</i><br /><br />Evidence?<br /><br />If this is true, again I don't immediately see how it affects Silver's analysis.<br /><br />If your analysis is based on observations you believe others have missed, why did you begin by saying you don't understand why others disagree with you? Was that just for rhetorical effect?David Tomlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-74745456440742457942010-07-17T21:46:50.107-05:002010-07-17T21:46:50.107-05:00I just don't think Boehner is anywhere near as...I just don't think Boehner is anywhere near as crazy as Gingrich, who had a self-destructive streak that was a sight to behold.Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48274414562244932022010-07-17T20:57:51.856-05:002010-07-17T20:57:51.856-05:00The simple answer is that the 538 post you point i...The simple answer is that the 538 post you point ignores the changing demographics of the American electorate. There are simply far more partisans who won't change their vote based on economics. Everyone has missed the fact that economic voting has been declining dramatically since the 90's.William Ockhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13795149116565627671noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-3939218318840695322010-07-17T18:09:40.048-05:002010-07-17T18:09:40.048-05:00William Ockham
I still do not understand why peo...William Ockham <br /><br /><i>I still do not understand why people are taking seriously the notion that the Republicans can take back the House.</i><br /><br />http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/generic-ballot-points-toward-possible.html<br /><br /><i>It is simply nonsense.</i><br /><br />Because?David Tomlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-14959664226885766162010-07-17T16:49:26.268-05:002010-07-17T16:49:26.268-05:00I still do not understand why people are taking se...I still do not understand why people are taking seriously the notion that the Republicans can take back the House. It is simply nonsense. It is more likely that the Democrats will gain seats (not that that will happen either).William Ockhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13795149116565627671noreply@blogger.com