tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post2514275656778691701..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Blaming Sandy Would Be GreatJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-104408988650078402012-11-02T06:34:02.665-05:002012-11-02T06:34:02.665-05:00Just to nit pick slightly, Nixon was never a losin...Just to nit pick slightly, Nixon was never a losing VP nominee, just a losing presidential nominee.<br /><br />He ran for VP twice and won both times, for president three times and won twiceAdam Drummondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16926249890018777092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-17502477837234791932012-11-01T20:01:15.555-05:002012-11-01T20:01:15.555-05:00"We should not expect the fact that the GOP i...<i>"We should not expect the fact that the GOP is broken to have much of any effect on whether people will vote for them at the presidential or congressional level."</i><br /><br />I think there's a fair question that while the GOP voters may remain very loyal to the party, and would for the foreseeable future if the Republicans do not change their views..<br /><br />.. but there's also a question of whether the 2016, 2020 national electorates will remain demographically the same as today. As Lindsey Graham put it, 'angry white guys' is not exactly a growth demo. Voter suppression efforts are not a long-term solution.JSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20847549754419207332012-11-01T19:53:04.704-05:002012-11-01T19:53:04.704-05:00I'd say 2008 was pretty well a foregone conclu...I'd say 2008 was pretty well a foregone conclusion a couple weeks out from election day. ElectoralVote.com had Obama on 357 EV by mid-October, and over 280 in 'safe' Dem states. (Also, too: "maybe" '96? - back when I was Republican I voted for Dole, but that was not remotely a close election.)<br /><br />- - - - - - - - - -<br /><br />Anon: If the race stayed perfectly static from here on out, the 538 projection will drift modestly toward Obama just because days are coming off the calendar. On election day, the projection and the "nowcast" would finally intersect.JSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-78318226027516258402012-11-01T17:24:58.420-05:002012-11-01T17:24:58.420-05:00Couves, the Obama campaign apparently made a strat...Couves, the Obama campaign apparently made a strategic decision not to rely on the flip-flopper charge. They figured they were better off painting Romney as a sincerely radical right-winger who really would pursue the extreme policies he associated himself with during the primaries, whereas talking him up as a flip-flopper could backfire by accidentally reassuring people that he wouldn't be as "severely conservative" as he claimed once in office. Whether this was a smart decision or not on their part, I really don't know.Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-1548924673393859832012-11-01T16:51:16.335-05:002012-11-01T16:51:16.335-05:00Anon, you're right, it has been out there... s...Anon, you're right, it has been out there... so I take that back. I was just expecting it to have larger role in framing the whole Democratic case against Romney than we've seen. Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-35336169673154707512012-11-01T16:38:52.539-05:002012-11-01T16:38:52.539-05:00That's a good question! We would probably tur...That's a good question! We would probably turn to the usual Democratic boogeymen, like Fox News, talk radio, Karl Rove, or the Koch Brothers. Some will say we should have ditched Obama for Hillary, or found a new running mate instead of Biden. I think those would be examples of unhealthy responses.<br /><br />Democrats also have a "Sandy" argument, that the hurricane will lower voter turnout. They could also blame Voter ID laws. Plus, Romney's "win" in the first debate. None of which are necessarily true, but would fit Jonathan's definition of a "healthy" explanation.Thomasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-61520450334674950282012-11-01T16:06:22.751-05:002012-11-01T16:06:22.751-05:00Maybe the "Romney is a liar" thing isn&#...Maybe the "Romney is a liar" thing isn't big where you are? Hard to imagine; it was the essential response of the entire Democratic party and liberal press to the first debate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-71415479365319263402012-11-01T16:05:50.288-05:002012-11-01T16:05:50.288-05:00Right, Scott, come to think of it, that's more...Right, Scott, come to think of it, that's more likely.Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-61692402615876433562012-11-01T16:04:09.688-05:002012-11-01T16:04:09.688-05:00Hopefully the 538 percentage will be higher than 7...Hopefully the 538 percentage will be higher than 79 percent (and higher than 83 percent, for that matter), come Tuesday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-19916560136331092392012-11-01T15:29:38.490-05:002012-11-01T15:29:38.490-05:00Then they must not be doing a very good job at it....Then they must not be doing a very good job at it. Most of what I've seen from the Obama camp has been along the lines of Romney being a "capitalist heel."Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-3248059667136207572012-11-01T15:28:39.169-05:002012-11-01T15:28:39.169-05:00Indeed an honor! Indeed an honor! CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-18119471989844198452012-11-01T15:18:14.022-05:002012-11-01T15:18:14.022-05:00". . . or we'll suddenly hear from a bunc...". . . or we'll suddenly hear from a bunch of righty pundits about how terribly worried they were privately over all these apostasies, albeit without wanting to say so publicly at the time so as not to hurt the nominee."<br /><br />Or they'll suddenly remember that they did say so after all. You just weren't listening.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-85414023824139612282012-11-01T15:13:11.556-05:002012-11-01T15:13:11.556-05:00Now they can blame Bloomberg, too.
He's endo...Now they can blame Bloomberg, too. <br /><br />He's endorsed President Obama because of . . . climate change. It's finally an election talking point! Lot I don't like about Mayor Bloomberg, but I'm grateful to him for bringing this to the table, even at this late date.<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nyregion/bloomberg-endorses-obama-saying-hurricane-sandy-affected-decision.html?hpzicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-76544641319065482452012-11-01T14:30:08.475-05:002012-11-01T14:30:08.475-05:00Davis, that of course is not my view, it's the...Davis, that of course is not my view, it's the way I think he's seen on the GOP right -- and certainly the way he'll be painted if he's running in primaries against someone like Ryan, Rubio or Rand Paul:<br /><br />http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77325.html<br /><br />http://robertringer.com/roberts-insights/jeb-bush-comes-out-of-the-closet/Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-86798592238428655592012-11-01T14:28:32.380-05:002012-11-01T14:28:32.380-05:00CSH totally wins the thread. Obviously.CSH totally wins the thread. Obviously.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-29498089594526374712012-11-01T14:25:03.872-05:002012-11-01T14:25:03.872-05:00Yes?
There's a more complicated answer, too. ...Yes?<br /><br />There's a more complicated answer, too. I should probably write a full post about it though.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-11337215887046118922012-11-01T14:21:28.802-05:002012-11-01T14:21:28.802-05:00Ooh! Ouch!
When was the last time you saw a pho...Ooh! Ouch! <br /><br />When was the last time you saw a phone booth, old man?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-59389871489956568752012-11-01T14:20:20.657-05:002012-11-01T14:20:20.657-05:00Couves, they re-worked it into the "you can&#...Couves, they re-worked it into the "you can't trust that bullsh**tter Romney" meme. They hit it 24/7. Are you commenting half-asleep? You usually make more sense.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2124979050714949082012-11-01T14:11:33.201-05:002012-11-01T14:11:33.201-05:00I think you're BOTH right. Right wingers will ...I think you're BOTH right. Right wingers will LOVE Ryan as a presidential nominee. I bet he gets the nomination with very little trouble at all. But the rest if the country now seems to have had their fill of the extremists. So, Ryan will not fare any better in the general election then than he has in this one. I think nothing could be better for the Democrats than to go up against Ryan as a presidential candidate in the next election. Rebeccahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07395686312754791503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75496024615271584012012-11-01T13:39:55.408-05:002012-11-01T13:39:55.408-05:00The real question to me is why this uncontrolled r...<i>The real question to me is why this uncontrolled rush to destruction is not part of the moderate left.</i><br /><br />My guess? There are approximately enough leftists in the US to meet in a phone booth and still leave room for the cash bar.<br /><br />Their disappearance would leave a pretty small hole -- no one would notice.Davis X. Machinahttp://davisxmachina.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-50364376898992801832012-11-01T13:37:32.790-05:002012-11-01T13:37:32.790-05:00I am keen to visit any quadrant of the galaxy wher...I am keen to visit any quadrant of the galaxy where Jeb Bush is any kind of leftist, even a 'crypto-leftist'...Davis X. Machinahttp://davisxmachina.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75857466332268505632012-11-01T13:35:19.003-05:002012-11-01T13:35:19.003-05:00There's also the "Romney wasn't a tru...There's also the "Romney wasn't a true conservative" explanation. I'm actually surprised the Obama camp hasn't really used the "flip flopper" attack that worked against Kerry.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-12920499437235471242012-11-01T13:32:16.447-05:002012-11-01T13:32:16.447-05:00Great. Here's more Heston: "It's PEOP...Great. Here's more Heston: "It's PEOPLE!! Corporations are people..... it's people....."Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-52368877654953977652012-11-01T13:30:24.179-05:002012-11-01T13:30:24.179-05:00What a wonderful thread. Going back to Obama'...What a wonderful thread. Going back to Obama's apparent 79% chance of winning, here's another suggestion for liberals if we wake up in Romnerica next Wednesday:<br /><br />Gnash your teeth, rend your garment, and wail in your very best Shatner...<br /><br />"Tuesday! Why oh why did the election have to be held on a...TUESDAY! Any...other...dayoftheweek, AND WE WIN! Damn you, Tuesday, damn you all to hell!"<br /><br />Worked in a bit of Heston there too, but anyway, it could be a lot of fun.<br /><br />CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20676006256289410822012-11-01T13:23:10.876-05:002012-11-01T13:23:10.876-05:00Anon, I hope you're right, but I expect there ...Anon, I hope you're right, but I expect there will still be a lot of buzz on the right around Ryan, regardless of what eventually happens in '16. Sarah Palin was still polling as high as Romney among Republican voters as late as March 2011:<br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/26/sarah-palin-mitt-romney-l_n_867513.htmlJeffnoreply@blogger.com