tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post2963367096863397467..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: What Are Those Neutral GOP Actors Up To?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-61361420353693134072012-01-10T10:46:22.093-06:002012-01-10T10:46:22.093-06:00@ModeratePoli, thank you for the compliment. Was ...@ModeratePoli, thank you for the compliment. Was thinking on the topic a bit more yesterday and recalling a discussion here several months ago re: Limbaugh's claim that he would vote for Elmer Fudd over Barack Obama. Jonathan defended Limbaugh's position, on the assumption that Fudd were the Republican nominee.<br /><br />Romney's pretty much the Republican nominee. He surely can't be as bad as Fudd, no? Which makes it seem unlikely that Romney-specific problems are leading to hesitation for party actors; at this point (with the primary essentially decided and no viable alternative), the process should no longer be a beauty pageant but rather about WINNING (in November). <br /><br />Speaking of Limbaugh and on a related topic, if anyone's interested, here's a research idea: caught a bit of Limbaugh's show the other day, and he was railing against the Obamas' sense of entitlement leading to the Halloween party. Pretty boilerplate stuff, but what made this interesting was Limbaugh dumping in beltway Republicans among the despicable Washington crowd animated merely by this sense of entitlement.<br /><br />The Republican part was merely a parenthetical, and Limbaugh obviously didn't name names. As someone who infrequently consumes right-wing media, it seems to me that the jockeys are dialing up the Republicans - for criticism - much more than in the past. Not a lot, but certainly more, which should be measurable.<br /><br />The explanation might be that, with the coming schizophrenic implosion of the Republican party, the radio jocks are increasingly throwing the leadership to the dogs in order to gain plausible deniability as things deteriorate in the GOP.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48867979748472914572012-01-10T10:01:40.605-06:002012-01-10T10:01:40.605-06:00@CSH, great comment capped by a stellar last line....@CSH, great comment capped by a stellar last line.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-41494083373009823982012-01-09T23:59:42.627-06:002012-01-09T23:59:42.627-06:00Its possible that we're looking at this in too...Its possible that we're looking at this in too granular a fashion, attempting to infer too much about Romney's bona fides. Bigger picture, perhaps the Republican Party has ideologically imploded, and the party movers not endorsing is the equivalent of ducking for cover.<br /><br />Re the tea party comment: this week the US debt surpassed 1X GDP. The biggest drivers of the deficit are sacred Republican constituencies, the elderly and the military-industrial complex. And perhaps unfettered capitalism, which may need more deficit spending here to find its footing. OTOH, maybe deficit spending is damaging American capital formation.<br /><br />There's nothing so far in this post we haven't discussed a million times. In the context of endorsements, and leaving aside Romney's religious or liberal or smarmy baggage, just in the abstract, which Republican Presidential candidate would you endorse?<br /><br />The deficit cutter, thus endearing yourself to the tea party hordes but alienating old folks and military types?<br /><br />Or the deficit spender, thus incurring the wrath of the tea party and the business community?<br /><br />Or neither, and allow the guy standing next to you to speak up and receive the inevitable knives that will follow.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-23151234586821026622012-01-09T20:08:00.865-06:002012-01-09T20:08:00.865-06:00One other thing: One-third of the superdelegates a...One other thing: One-third of the superdelegates are state party chairs, and many of them purposely stay neutral until after their state votes. The same was true of many Dem chairs in 2008, but state chairs were a much smaller % of a much larger group. -Matt from DemocraticConventionWatch.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48185156145621735502012-01-09T16:01:45.042-06:002012-01-09T16:01:45.042-06:00I don't think the two options are mutually exc...I don't think the two options are mutually exclusive. GOP elites who are themselves conservative are sitting there looking at the field and saying "yikes." Romney is going to be the nominee, and they'll back him, because President Romney would be better for them than President Obama. And, given the circus this go-around, there's just no guarantee that "wait until 2016 for a viable conservative candidate" is a good idea.<br /><br />But that doesn't mean they have to like the idea. And, if they're thinking strategically about party factions (and not just their own butts), they're thinking that showing that there's a lot of GOP elites that would have preferred a credible conservative is a good thing.<br /><br />Keeping quiet now:<br />-doesn't hurt Romney in the general<br />-forces Romney to pay attention to them, both in platform and if he wins<br />-boosts conservatives in 2016<br /><br />Endorsing Romney now:<br />-um, accepts defeat? Seriously, between Paul and those that believe that there's an ABR vote out there, the endorsements aren't going to matter in the short run. Might as well let it play out<br />-Gets you in slightly better with a potential Romney Admin than those that wait. Worth something, but I think that's all that it really has going for it.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-45011063532676745802012-01-09T15:16:08.062-06:002012-01-09T15:16:08.062-06:00That's a good question, and I don't know t...That's a good question, and I don't know the answer specifically for GOP supers...but I do know that for GOP high-visibility endorsers overall that they're well behind where they were in 2000 (and I think that's right about 2008, too, although I'd have to go look it up, and of course in 2008 they were far more split than they are now).Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-49691386687857153472012-01-09T15:11:18.004-06:002012-01-09T15:11:18.004-06:00Do superdelegates usually commit this early? Do th...Do superdelegates usually commit this early? Do they usually commit at all? Didn't we learn in 2008 Dem. race that they tend to wait and vote for whoever wins the primaries?<br /><br />Do we know how many superdelegates had declared for GOP candidates before NH in 2008?swainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08696058464538049417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-6881721817613791582012-01-09T15:01:25.688-06:002012-01-09T15:01:25.688-06:00Yes, but it didn't stop them from doing so in ...Yes, but it didn't stop them from doing so in 1999 (or Democrats to do so in 1999 and 1983).Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90047231670180667012012-01-09T14:51:53.333-06:002012-01-09T14:51:53.333-06:00Maybe they're fine with Romney but don't w...Maybe they're fine with Romney but don't want to be seen as closing down the nomination process before it starts. If they endorse after he's won some primaries, he may have more legitimacy among activist Republicans.<br /><br />(then again, maybe not).Nick Beaudrothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02794690208464883973noreply@blogger.com