tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post3402647012541041763..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Elsewhere Today: Debate Preview, Vanity Super PACs, and Deadlock NightmaresJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75287008678389080522012-02-22T09:58:56.135-06:002012-02-22T09:58:56.135-06:00A rump convention seems tailor-made for Santorum. ...A rump convention seems tailor-made for Santorum. We've had Mugwumps, make way for the Santo-Rumps! "I have nothing against rumps - most people have them, and I do too. But just having one is not a license to do things in the sexual realm that are counter to how things are supposed to be.”Geoff Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17117921607237662932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-41079958555574686132012-02-21T19:36:48.543-06:002012-02-21T19:36:48.543-06:00Not that it's actually going to happen, at lea...<i>Not that it's actually going to happen, at least not this time around.</i><br /><br />Suppose we assume the entirely plausible delegate split in your Salon article; actually, with uncommitteds allocated let's assume it ends up 1100 Romney and about 400 for each of the other three.<br /><br />That moment would be a far far cry from other contested primaries; it couldn't be more different from HRC gradually being defeated in 2008, with the consolation prize of a day at the convention, announcing Obama's victory, and a Sec of State post to mollify the PUMAs. In the above entirely plausible scenario, Romney's the "winner" by a large plurality, but not the official winner - lacking a majority - even though all the pundits forecasted a Romney victory for months.<br /><br />What happens then? Romney's 1100 delegates screams the "party doesn't want you" (because its not the 2000 or so delegates you would have expected from Romney against a field like this). But there's no simple way to go for any of the distant runners-up.<br /><br />If Romney and his 1100 delegates are not deemed the winners of the nomination, then it seems very likely they walk across the street and proceed with the rump convention - that's arguably the logical thing to do. Given Romney's long-standing frontrunner status, and the lack of viable competition, there's a pretty good chance that the party wouldn't be motivated to cut a deal elevating Romney and his 1100 delegates (if the party wanted to elevate Romney, they had 4 years to do so before the convention).<br /><br />Maybe not "likely" - but probably not as unlikely as you suggest; indeed, any outcome with Romney less than 1,144 would seem to open the very real possibility of a rump convention.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-91416321308310553312012-02-21T17:01:52.916-06:002012-02-21T17:01:52.916-06:00I believe the real impact of the vanity Super PACs...I believe the real impact of the vanity Super PACs is the ability for campaigns to run negative ads with plausible deniability. It's not just that they can keep zombie candidacies alive, it's that they let the zombie candidates eat the brains of the living candidates, turning them into zombies.William Ockhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13795149116565627671noreply@blogger.com