tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post3628870909852808783..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: "Break the Fever" Is Futile -- Especially For BoehnerJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-24842369645854912462013-09-18T19:05:12.110-05:002013-09-18T19:05:12.110-05:00It won't save any money because most of the ex...It won't save any money because most of the expenses will just be delayed, until the shutdown is over. GOP can accomplish something with a shutdown, and I am surprised Bernstein didn't identify it. At present it is merely a conjecture that Republicans will be blamed for the shutdown and that they will pay an electoral price. It is quite possible that once a shutdown is put into place polls will not give clear-cut evidence of electoral disaster for Republicans in which case they have every incentive to continue the shutdown until the Democrats yield. If it turns out that House Republicans see convincing evidence that they could well pay an electoral price they can always pass a clean CR. They won't have to vote for it, all they need do is allow Boehner to bring it to a vote. Seems to me the risk is small and they can learn something useful.<br /><br />Given a choice between allowing Obamacare and a Democratic House, I think Republicans will chose the former. But if they *don't* face such an outcome, then why not?mike alexandernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-91935411962747774512013-09-18T16:07:55.238-05:002013-09-18T16:07:55.238-05:00There's not really a 'fever' to break ...There's not really a 'fever' to break - most of the Representatives do drink the 'tea' and have been raised on the idea that all government (except the military) is evil. They don't understand the economy, and they don't understand the value of public services. They are not interested in legislating, aside from specific requests of their individual donors (typically less regulations and taxes on the rich), aside from that they are only interested in 'scoring points' against their opponents. <br />Aside from reflexively opposing anything proposed by a Democrat, they don't have an idea of what they are supposed to be doing. <br />And so the democratic party has the unenviable role of explaining that the Republican proposals are insane and their continued control of the house is dangerous to the Republic, as it results in the sabotage of the sequester and threatened sabotage of shutdowns and unnecessary debt defaults. agorabumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20944680857069103012013-09-18T15:59:34.513-05:002013-09-18T15:59:34.513-05:00I doubt the fever can be broken. Too many people ...I doubt the fever can be broken. Too many people making too much money in the fight to ever let it go.<br />The outrage has to be sustained or the donations and book sales drop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-30795403684153563822013-09-18T15:53:07.223-05:002013-09-18T15:53:07.223-05:00Last time the government shut down for just about ...Last time the government shut down for just about a month in 1995-1996, all federal employees were still paid because it would have cost more money NOT to pay them due to administrative costs, etc. So, the argument from Anon is illogical on its face.Yupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-66792164845091296202013-09-17T20:39:18.902-05:002013-09-17T20:39:18.902-05:00@Matt, you're arguing in vain with someone who...@Matt, you're arguing in vain with someone who thinks that the US is doomed anyway, but that the GOP are noble for waging the hopeless fight. This guy is steeped in a fantasy world of political good and evil, so isn't susceptible to rational argument. ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-69487884249036407892013-09-17T17:45:07.040-05:002013-09-17T17:45:07.040-05:00Ah, so you meant to both insult and misinform!
A ...Ah, so you meant to both insult and misinform!<br /><br />A one month furlough will only save on government employee salaries (from the non-protected employees, so not military, or postal, or public safety, or....). <br /><br />An estimate I've seen is that total wage and benefit costs for executive branch employees is 7% of the budget. <br /><br />So, 1/12th of 7% is.... 0.58% of the budget. It's not a drop in the ocean. It really and truly is not that different from nothing. In so doing, it leads to a really terrible decline in the value of the services provided. At some point, wouldn't you rather pay 100% to get some service versus 99.42% to get much, much worse service? Service doesn't decline by 0.58%...it declines for one month by a lot more than that, and your dealings with government will be screwed up for months to come. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the economic harm from shutting down the government for a month, in fact, causes MORE damage to the deficit keeping it open would have. Businesses will not be able to make some profits because their permits got delayed. Government employees won't spend money on lots of stuff. The list goes on. I imagine an economist could suss out what the ultimate effects might be on the government's bottom line; I think it's very likely much less than 0.58%, and really think a terrible decline in value provided by the government isn't worth it.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27517585199711537002013-09-17T15:43:43.810-05:002013-09-17T15:43:43.810-05:00Thanks for your comment. What exactly will Republi...<i>Thanks for your comment. What exactly will Republican legislators have accomplished if they shut down the government and don't repeal of Obamacare?</i><br /><br />They will have saved the American taxpayer one month's worth of needless expenditures. I know it's only a drop in the ocean, but something is better than nothing. By and large, I see the job of Republicans as being a long, doomed fight in defence of civilisation against the forces of the-word-I-can't-say. I have no reason to doubt that Bernstein is right and Republicans will have to cave eventually, so they may as well save the taxpayer as much money as possible in each skirmish on our path to barbarism.<br /><br /><i>(P.S. Sorry to play "grammar police", but the second word in your final sentence should be "Democratic".)</i><br /><br />No, it really, really <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrat_Party_(epithet)" rel="nofollow">shouldn't</a>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-23880920874323174242013-09-17T15:11:42.845-05:002013-09-17T15:11:42.845-05:00I wish there was more reporting on the so-called G...I wish there was more reporting on the so-called GOP Establishment. Some reporters get plenty of off-the-record quotations that various high-level GOP party actors are really annoyed by or genuinely hate Cruz, the Tea Party, etc. But then we hear precious little about whether these closet relative moderates are doing any substantive organizing to quash the wackos or out-of-control grifters. At what point do those dogs bark?<br /><br />It seems to me that if I were Boehner and his well-connected, exasperated aides, I would be working behind-the-scenes with key media elites, business groups, and party funding apparatuses to assure cowardly GOP representatives that they will have tons of primary funding to flatten challengers, thus it's OK to vote with Boehner against these fantastical schemes.PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-80082579511466819492013-09-17T14:12:01.476-05:002013-09-17T14:12:01.476-05:00Shut down government for just a month? What a squi...Shut down government for just a month? What a squish. It's people like Anon who've ruined this once great country and turned it into a fourth world hellhole. Geoff Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17117921607237662932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-15330497105584972722013-09-17T13:02:54.340-05:002013-09-17T13:02:54.340-05:00So, anon, let me see if I understand. A futile, sh...So, anon, let me see if I understand. A futile, short-lived gesture is all fine and good, and is what we are paying our legislators for? You seem to be for pyrrhic victories as though they were real victories. Do I need to add that this makes no sense?ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-54549691549714530752013-09-17T10:57:10.426-05:002013-09-17T10:57:10.426-05:00Thanks for your comment. What exactly will Republ...Thanks for your comment. What exactly will Republican legislators have accomplished if they shut down the government and don't repeal of Obamacare?<br /><br />(P.S. Sorry to play "grammar police", but the second word in your final sentence should be "Democratic".)massappealhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17883213166005005577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-5188025133204153682013-09-17T10:24:57.835-05:002013-09-17T10:24:57.835-05:00I believe it was Ronald Coase who said that if a w...I believe it was Ronald Coase who said that if a wealth-killing regulation was being passed that would cost $1bn per year, and an economist managed to delay its implementation by just two weeks, he would have more than justified his lifetime salary.<br /><br />By the same token, if Republicans legislators can "shut down the government" (and no, defunding the government will not actually shut down most of its functions) for just a month, they will have more than justified their salaries. How Democrat legislators can justify theirs is left as an exercise for the reader.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20313861864547734922013-09-17T10:16:16.259-05:002013-09-17T10:16:16.259-05:00Resolved, then: the GOP is not primarily a politic...Resolved, then: the GOP is not primarily a political party pursuing policy, influence, and political power. It is a short-term fundraising scam creating, sustaining, and exploiting easy marks. It is not legitimate to call on GOP leaders to use their influence to stop the creation of easy marks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-61675858904367913472013-09-17T10:13:20.591-05:002013-09-17T10:13:20.591-05:00Excellent post, thank-you. When you have time, I&...Excellent post, thank-you. When you have time, I'd be interested in your thoughts about Jonathan Chait's latest piece framing this as a legitimacy crisis, rather than traditional political maneuvering. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/09/obama-republicans-and-the-crisis-of-legitimacy.htmlmassappealhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17883213166005005577noreply@blogger.com