tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post3824164693356242931..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: One More Time on Subsamples (Ignore Those Polls! Addendum)Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-33949955637419725532013-11-27T08:55:13.754-06:002013-11-27T08:55:13.754-06:00Form the article: "For results based on the ...Form the article: "For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.." That's the margin of error for the survey of everyone, and there's no dispute that Obama's popularity is going down overall. The results for the subgroup analysis are not based on the total sample, that's what makes them subgroup analyses. The margins of error will be much higher.arthurnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-3607641534249239522013-11-26T23:12:20.509-06:002013-11-26T23:12:20.509-06:00Speaking of Silver and offensive tweets, in the li...Speaking of Silver and offensive tweets, in the linked poll the decline in approval among Easterners (-9), the wealthy (-9), and postgrads (-8) all fell well outside the reported MOE (+/-2). Of course, the repoted MOE is not the "real" MOE, due to the "unreported" data on the cutting room floor.<br /><br />Curious though: if the data swamp causes us to disregard polling results 4 or so times as large as the MOE - why do we pay any attention to any polls, at all, ever? CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-43740112863999338412013-11-26T21:51:56.769-06:002013-11-26T21:51:56.769-06:00Due for re-launch in early 2014: http://www.usato...Due for re-launch in early 2014: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/11/19/fivethirtyeight-staffing/3644841/David Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09260587086663631888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-73371987294385918042013-11-26T15:59:51.347-06:002013-11-26T15:59:51.347-06:00ESPN.ESPN.theBitterFignoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-53635680605664293102013-11-26T15:53:24.943-06:002013-11-26T15:53:24.943-06:00Wither goest thou, Nate Silver?Wither goest thou, Nate Silver?The Amazing Spider Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13309943624044131642noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-5267166083435564662013-11-26T15:35:08.695-06:002013-11-26T15:35:08.695-06:00Please tell me that tweet was meant as parody.
Please tell me that tweet was meant as parody. <br />swainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08696058464538049417noreply@blogger.com