tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post4006350937149027128..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Looking at the ResultsJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-33719279549704026422009-11-05T12:11:48.919-06:002009-11-05T12:11:48.919-06:00I know I'm beating the same drum again, but......I know I'm beating the same drum again, but...<br /><br />On the interpretation of NY-23, you're leaving out the most important thing: what drives the folks who created the Hoffman craze in the first place, which is money. As I've blogged, this was nothing but a huge success for them -- enormous fundraising by CfG, Alan Keyes's groups, and a bunch of others; big boost in traffic (and prestige) for RedState et al; huge money for Red Sea and other conservative consultants; etc. etc. Of COURSE they'll do it again, and make the 2010 primaries about this, and recruit candidates for independent campaigns. It's their business model.<br /><br />The most important thing about NY-23 is that the Dick Armey/Club for Growth crowd demonstrated, yet again, that they now control the Republican base -- and anyone else, from Pete Sessions to Newt Gingrich, can join or get run over.David S. Bernsteinhttp://thephoenix.com/blogs/TalkingPolitics/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-19287351699038998032009-11-04T13:37:02.761-06:002009-11-04T13:37:02.761-06:00Methinks that the triumph of getting 45% for a 3rd...Methinks that the triumph of getting 45% for a 3rd party will embolden the knuckle-draggers. I kinda think they're right, or at least that we need to revisit the accepted wisdom on Duverger's Law. <br /><br />Perhaps its enough for contests to reduce to any top two candidates on opposing sides of the district's median, without requiring that it reduce to 2 parties. In a sense, it provides more evidence for the Aldrich view of parties as slaves to their masters. I'm curious what Jon and Seth make of this for the whole 'invisible parties' literature. Does it mean we should be using the term "invisible coalition" instead?Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2589739549098371862009-11-04T11:12:25.904-06:002009-11-04T11:12:25.904-06:00FYI: Here's the list of "redistricting by...FYI: <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/?tabid=16617" rel="nofollow">Here's the list of "redistricting by commission" states</a>.<br /><br />I think Dave is right to bring up the executive/legislative divide in redistricting politics. If New Jersey didn't have its commission, the legislature is still controlled by the Democrats, but Christie would have the ability to shoot any proposal down. It is sad we won't get to see that potential battle, especially considering New Jersey is seen as a state that <a href="http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/08/closer-look-at-aftermath-of-2010-census.html" rel="nofollow">may lose a seat</a> after the census.<br /><br />I don't know about Virginia, though. Yes, the Democrats control the Senate, but only narrowly (21-19). That narrow majority might have its will tested in a battle over new lines.<br /><br />Speaking of redistricting and NY-23: There has been <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/three-big-questions-in-ny-23.html" rel="nofollow">some chatter in recent days</a> about the district being eliminated following the census. <br /><br />As for the blame-placing in last night's election, I fall somewhere in the middle. Tim Pawlenty, for instance, continued to talk about the lack of a primary for selecting the nominee in the North Country district. That is something that will resonate and falls at the feet of the party elites that selected Scozzafava. At the same time, though, those same elites may have had their hands tied by Hoffman's showing last night. As Mike Murphy retweeted yesterday, <a href="http://twitter.com/fhq/status/5413065007" rel="nofollow">"@murphymike: RT @JonHenke: Doug Hoffman wins the Republican Primary in #NY23. The general election is 2010."</a> Hoffman has until the September primary (<a href="http://frontloading.blogspot.com/search/label/Military%20and%20Overseas%20Voter%20Empowerment%20Act" rel="nofollow">if New York isn't forced to move it up to an earlier date</a>) to do exactly what Pat Toomey is doing in the Pennsylvania Senate race: moderate to some degree (ideally, to the candidate, as little as possible). Silly conservatives or not, Hoffman likely earned the right of first refusal for next year.Josh Putnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-17088673635839983832009-11-04T01:55:24.757-06:002009-11-04T01:55:24.757-06:00In addition, because the VA legislature is divided...In addition, because the VA legislature is divided between the parties, the next redistricting will probably go to the courts regardless of who's governor.<br /><br />I also think the disloyalty question in NY-23 is complicated, to say the least, by the Republican candidate's decision after dropping out to endorse (and tape a robocall for) the Democratic candidate, which may well have sealed his victory. That's pretty disloyal itself, any way you look at it, and has the effect of validating the conservative complaint that Scozzafava was not a "real" Rep/Con but instead a liberal in GOP clothing.<br /><br />I think part of the nerdy political science take here should be that the events of NY-23 help to demonstrate one of the advantages of primary elections for parties even though they take power away from party organizations. I think it's likely that the nationally-mobilized conservative opposition would not have been as strong had Scozzafava been chosen in a primary and thus able to claim a certain amount of popular legitimacy as the Republican candidate. (Whether she would have won a primary against Hoffman or another conservative opponent is, of course, an open question.)<br /><br />Finally, I'm wary of overinterpretation of special elections, but I think the results represent another data point in favor of the view that a significant portion of the conservative movement fails to perceive a tradeoff between ideological purity and electoral success that, at least in some cases, holds in reality. Certainly, one increasingly visible consequence of this view is the Republican Party's endangered status in the Northeast, at least in federal elections. Gee, somebody should write a dissertation about that...<br /><br />DaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-39521842911927095922009-11-04T01:00:00.322-06:002009-11-04T01:00:00.322-06:00I did not know that. I'm pretty sure that Iow...I did not know that. I'm pretty sure that Iowa and Arizona have goo goo commissions, but I didn't know about NJ. <br /><br />Very interesting.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-29481627538879836412009-11-04T00:53:28.474-06:002009-11-04T00:53:28.474-06:00Good points, but one quick comment: New Jersey has...Good points, but one quick comment: New Jersey has a bipartisan redistricting commission, with Larry Bartels sometimes breaking the tie. Yes, it's definitely good for the GOP to control the governor's office, but it won't help much come redistricting time.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.com