tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post410579353072999567..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: No, Really, Don't Think About the Electoral College YetJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-60066056936591859512012-04-30T11:03:58.428-05:002012-04-30T11:03:58.428-05:00Second that.Second that.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-30202532211202323832012-04-30T10:07:55.382-05:002012-04-30T10:07:55.382-05:00But if you're trying to figure out who is goin...<i>But if you're trying to figure out who is going to win the election, or the margin of victory, you're just going to be a whole lot better off if you pretend the electoral college doesn't exist until at least after the conventions.</i><br /><br />I agree 100%--but I'd add that even the national polls are pretty much useless until after the conventions (and after any post-convention bounces from either candidate have faded). I seriously think the only poll worth paying attention to at this point is presidential approval. Even that's subject to change, but it tends to be more stable than head-to-head polls and a more accurate view of the shape the incumbent is in.Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.com