tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5226252373568774001..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Question Day!Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37978685149314585532013-09-18T23:56:36.534-05:002013-09-18T23:56:36.534-05:00Mayor of Chicago. Similar to NY, right -- huge cit...Mayor of Chicago. Similar to NY, right -- huge city, seriously different from the rest of the state. I don't think most Californians think of LA as similarly foreign to the rest of the state, but still -- several have tried to move up from there, and I don't think anyone has. <br /><br />Ed Rendell did make it from Mayor of Philadelphia to Governor...mostly, though, it's just real tough to turn "big city mayor" into a stepping stone, especially from very big cities.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2967519151891478612013-09-18T12:56:09.729-05:002013-09-18T12:56:09.729-05:00@ JB are there any other political offices like ma...@ JB are there any other political offices like mayor of NYC that are dead-end jobs? Or are the politics in NYC so unique that there really is no other office similar to it? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2297486646020982942013-09-18T11:45:35.292-05:002013-09-18T11:45:35.292-05:00@Matt Do you think the overrating of certain presi...@Matt Do you think the overrating of certain presidents (particularly John Adams, John Q Adams, and Ike) is a result of their achievements outside of the Presidency? <br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-51877384736272411952013-09-17T10:45:10.824-05:002013-09-17T10:45:10.824-05:00Well, true. But I guess I mean more Republican eli...Well, true. But I guess I mean more Republican elites. I'm sure we can name 4-5 senate nomination contests where if the 'establishment' candidate had won, the Republicans would probably control the Senate right now. That would make everything about Obama's second term very different. <br /><br />I also mean more as a comparison with the Democrats, where outside of Lieberman losing in a primary, I'm not sure of an outsider candidate taking down a Senator in a nomination contest. The Democrats nomination process seems much more orderly, and I bet Republicans wish that theirs was as simple. Could you see them changing the rules (go back to nominations by Party Committee) to avoid getting Sharon Angle's nominated again.Yaramah Zhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11545126290793710143noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-66835879339932384022013-09-17T00:54:01.881-05:002013-09-17T00:54:01.881-05:00No idea. I like to think they are correlated. I ca...No idea. I like to think they are correlated. I can't really prove they are.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37640207509277513792013-09-17T00:53:22.769-05:002013-09-17T00:53:22.769-05:00I'll think about it and maybe write more later...I'll think about it and maybe write more later, but one important point: spending on players is an investment. Spending money to field a winning team does not mean losing money; if done well, it should generate more profits than spending very little money on a terrible team.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-86648167423406729402013-09-17T00:50:33.636-05:002013-09-17T00:50:33.636-05:00Damn, that's not a fair question.
Fully unde...Damn, that's not a fair question. <br /><br />Fully understand Fed 10 (my interpretation, of course)? Fully understand the concept of separated institutions sharing powers? I don't know.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-24503361771850616322013-09-17T00:48:09.954-05:002013-09-17T00:48:09.954-05:00Most likely? They muddle through. There is a risk ...Most likely? They muddle through. There is a risk that they'll lose a generation or more of Latino voters and really become a minority party, but it's just as likely or more that immigration and some other issues recede, and that Latinos wind up splitting their votes between the parties and wind up moving away from ethnicity as a major political identity. Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-64294663884392820982013-09-17T00:44:13.362-05:002013-09-17T00:44:13.362-05:00Republicans do have control of the nomination proc...Republicans do have control of the nomination process! Tea Partiers aren't a fringe of the GOP; they are a large part of the GOP.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-64020976342463014442013-09-17T00:42:56.032-05:002013-09-17T00:42:56.032-05:00I would make the Democrats favorites, although not...I would make the Democrats favorites, although not by much, to hold the Senate.<br /><br />Dems to win the House would be pretty much unprecedented, so for it to happen would take something unexpected and unusual. Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-4913345741078882652013-09-17T00:40:37.161-05:002013-09-17T00:40:37.161-05:00Not just president; the Iron Law is that it's ...Not just president; the Iron Law is that it's a dead-end job. Can't win statewide, either.<br /><br />Why? Because the choices involved in governing NYC are just that different from "normal" politics in the rest of the state, much less the nation. Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-51194998317651110872013-09-17T00:37:13.251-05:002013-09-17T00:37:13.251-05:00Mostly just the necessity of actually passing some...Mostly just the necessity of actually passing some bills, which means the necessity of cutting deals. Otherwise, very little, I would think.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-85093120077648682872013-09-17T00:36:08.224-05:002013-09-17T00:36:08.224-05:00Ambition!
Longer answer: it's a very good que...Ambition!<br /><br />Longer answer: it's a very good question. It is likely, however, that most Members really do want to be politicians, and are willing to take less money to do so. Especially since the "career"-end reward is always out there.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-62117826887981915462013-09-17T00:34:09.783-05:002013-09-17T00:34:09.783-05:00Alan Ware argues that the Dems would have won in 1...Alan Ware argues that the Dems would have won in 1912 even if the GOP didn't split.<br /><br />Other than that...yeah, I think that's right. This stuff "works" in the contemporary US because since the Solid South ended, the parties have been basically close to even for presidential elections. There's a (Downsian) argument that there should always be rough parity between the two major parties in a two-party system, but that doesn't seem to hold empirically.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-80590167679409574762013-09-17T00:30:41.494-05:002013-09-17T00:30:41.494-05:00I really don't know. But I do think that on pe...I really don't know. But I do think that on personnel, recent presidents have been excessively risk-averse on appointments. Bringing in someone new does risk a scandal if something is uncovered. <br /><br />I have no idea whether that's a significant part of it or not.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-26163222447597809312013-09-17T00:28:53.778-05:002013-09-17T00:28:53.778-05:00Not much to add to what Matt said.
I do think th...Not much to add to what Matt said. <br /><br />I do think that part of what's gone on isn't as much polarization as it is nationalization; there really weren't national political parties until very recently. Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-15106359947543875372013-09-17T00:27:15.271-05:002013-09-17T00:27:15.271-05:00I've been neutral on term limits for judges......I've been neutral on term limits for judges...<br /><br />On Superbill: <br /><br />http://plainblogaboutpolitics.blogspot.com/2010/07/superbill.html<br /><br />(And, yeah, I should add a link to it. On the list.)Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-88307291485746786192013-09-16T20:02:11.110-05:002013-09-16T20:02:11.110-05:00How much of a predicter of presidential success (h...How much of a predicter of presidential success (however you would define that) is running a very efficient campaign? I mean...didn't Nixon run ruthlessly efficient presidential campaigns, at least after 1960?Thomas Parkernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-22899502951051733792013-09-16T18:11:39.373-05:002013-09-16T18:11:39.373-05:00Baseball/Politics hypothetical question.
Imagine ...Baseball/Politics hypothetical question.<br /><br />Imagine a deranged billionaire bought the St. Louis Cardinals and then "gave" (through a trust of whatever) to the city of St. Louis. The GM would become an elected position. The team can give profits to the city if the voters demand it. The city can (but does not have to) give extra money to the team.<br /><br />What impact would this have on the team? Would voters prefer to spend money to field a winning team, or would they prefer a losing team that creates money for the city?<br /><br />What impact would this have on local politics? Would voters care more about sports than other local issues? Would local politicians prefer to have the GM election during the general election or local spring elections? What other distorting effects could this have on local politics?Matthew Carroll-Schmidthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10892616596858483760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-74794534881123617082013-09-16T18:07:50.410-05:002013-09-16T18:07:50.410-05:00If you could magically make the entire electorate ...If you could magically make the entire electorate understand one thing about politics, what would it be and why?Matt glassmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-12605627383193806982013-09-16T16:44:06.824-05:002013-09-16T16:44:06.824-05:00I would argue that things can go well or go poorly...I would argue that things can go well or go poorly, but if one party is truly dominant, it has to really be terrible to get them out. The US looks that way from 1864-1964, really. The only surprising elections in that period come at a period of weaker partisanship (1880s) or when the dominant party splinters (TR) or goes up against the guy who single-handedly killed every single Nazi with his bare hands (Ike...with hyperbole, but his name really was strong enough to overcome the weakenening Dem loyalty, particularly in the urban parts of the South).Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-59530178207564602702013-09-16T16:40:09.562-05:002013-09-16T16:40:09.562-05:00For my money, Cleveland should be slightly higher ...For my money, Cleveland should be slightly higher than he is in most surveys. He's around #20 in most surveys, and going down over time. I'd lean towards #15, myself (again...SLIGHT difference).<br /><br />I also think Ike's revisionism is a bit too much. I'd lower him a few slots (he averages about #8, and I think he wouldn't break my top ten).<br /><br />I also think JQA is overrated at 18. Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90587904727510900582013-09-16T16:34:45.080-05:002013-09-16T16:34:45.080-05:00Interesting question! Don't know that I've...Interesting question! Don't know that I've ever read the answer to this...seems like an excellent dissertation topic!<br />Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-16596240304877684452013-09-16T15:50:29.613-05:002013-09-16T15:50:29.613-05:00I have a hard time seeing how Republicans survive ...I have a hard time seeing how Republicans survive as a party in the medium to long term, when so much of their base is too racist to want to be in a political coalition with non-white voters. They could try for a bigger share of the white vote, but it seems like the more the parties' tend to polarize around racial lines, the more racist the white party would tend to be, and the more likely they are to turn off non-racist whites.<br /><br />So what's the most likely future of the Republican Party: an openly racist permanent minority? turning their backs on the racists like the Dems did in the 60s, followed by a generation or so of weakness until they can build a new coalition? greater racial polarization between the parties?Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16387816156204378075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-74263513080462703482013-09-16T13:30:19.390-05:002013-09-16T13:30:19.390-05:00How can Republicans get control (or more control) ...How can Republicans get control (or more control) of their nomination process back, so they aren't so beholden to the Tea Party and other fringe groups? It seems to me that is the biggest structural difference between the parties and biggest driver of polarization. Yaramah Zhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11545126290793710143noreply@blogger.com