tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5326434763612883413..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: The Big Myth of RejectionismJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-21021193714076916932012-06-13T15:30:33.258-05:002012-06-13T15:30:33.258-05:00Strangles it in the crib, you betcha!Strangles it in the crib, you betcha!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-41558737671955041782012-06-13T10:21:49.996-05:002012-06-13T10:21:49.996-05:00I think rejectionism fits the mood of the Republic...I think rejectionism fits the mood of the Republican electoral base toward the Obama Administration, and therefore Republican members of Congress like Senator Lugar who are not rejectionist toward the Obama Administation risk primary defeat. My own Congressman, Chris Smith (R-NJ 4), one of the least conservative Republicans in the House on economic matters, just engaged in rejectionist rhetoric in mailings to Republican primary voters to defeat unknown and poorly financed conservative primary opponents in last week's New Jersey primary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-52451510881028983462012-06-12T19:26:23.794-05:002012-06-12T19:26:23.794-05:00I think those are good points, and my response is ...I think those are good points, and my response is basically: I can't say for sure. <br /><br />I will add one more potential risk: I suspect that rejectionism is a poor incubator for good public policy.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-22865301085330973722012-06-12T19:20:20.136-05:002012-06-12T19:20:20.136-05:00I think if you compare the policies as passed to w...I think if you compare the policies as passed to what Dems and Republicans campaigned on in 2008, you're going to find that the policies are far closer to the Democratic platform. <br /><br />I wouldn't call any of what they did "leftist", but I think all three of those measures fit well within where mainstream liberals are. And while it certainly could have moved the bills to a more liberal direction if there were have a dozen Jim Jeffords types in the GOP conference, that wasn't where the opportunity was; a compromise ACA would have probably had lower subsidies and possibly some (additional) giveaways for GOP-aligned interests, but it wouldn't have added any features that liberals like. <br /><br />And BTW, I don't think there's anything inherently "left" or "right" about tax cuts as a form of economic stimulus during a recession.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-51778852777582347652012-06-12T16:46:48.538-05:002012-06-12T16:46:48.538-05:00This makes a lot of sense to me. But let me offer ...This makes a lot of sense to me. But let me offer some pushback, if only so you might correct me about my ingrained but mistaken and muddy reflexes:<br /><br />You say: "Rejectionism can contain risks, too. It can hurt the reputation of a party if elites believe that the party is not acting constructively"<br /><br />This is one of the risks that has never really and fully manifested itself. It's striking. Several elites at the margins who previously saw the GOP as respectable and deserving of support have stopped, but not many. And mainstream, non-partisan opinion still takes both parties just as seriously as it always has; the GOP has faced barely any costs among elites for its strategic periods of rejectionism, whether focused on the economy or blanket in nature. That fact above all else does a lot to enable rejectionism as a viable political strategy.<br /><br />And although we might have to wait until 2012 to say so definitively, startling rejectionism has not led to poor electoral results among the broader electorate, even when some polls have shown that the GOP brand has suffered to a significant degree. This disjuncture is either real and striking, or we just have to wait until post-Labor Day when people who've tuned out since 2008 will tune in, and the GOP and Romney should suffer accordingly.PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-89585886682945781452012-06-12T16:38:09.460-05:002012-06-12T16:38:09.460-05:00A key concept that is seldom discussed when arguin...A key concept that is seldom discussed when arguing electoral politics is the assumption that Party A = Party B. That is to say, it is assumed that any given tactic will be equally effective regardless of which party uses them. Tucked into that reasoning is the idea that the same tactics will work the same under different conditions. This isn't true in warfare. This isn't true in sports. Why should it be true in politics?<br /><br />Just like a football team cannot run the same play on every down, political parties need to switch up their tactics. Similarly, the team must run plays that cater to their particular strengths while exploiting weaknesses in their opponents and also take into account the factors of the game such as the current score, time remaining, grass or turf, weather, you name it…<br /><br />I don’t want to get into the implications (obvious as they are) but it seems to me that the only real conclusion that can be made about rejectionist/obstructionist tactics is that they seem to be working for the Republican party <i>right now</i>. That isn’t to say that one cannot derive general rules about the conditions under which such tactics are most effective. But it is a mistake to argue over whether the tactic is effective or not when it clearly <i>can be</i>. <br /><br /> * * * <br /><br />Tangentially--and I have no notion of a remedy--I am perpetually bothered by the notion that the federal government needs to be so active. The “do-nothing” pejorative should be a compliment when applied to congress. I’ve often heard it <i>lamented</i> that the framers created such an inefficient legislature. One can only lament that fact if they are either <b>a)</b> ignorant of the framers’ intent, or <b>b)</b> at odds with the framers. <br /><br />I’m going to leave that last thought sit, and anyone who cares to take it up may do so. But they must also take it up with this: the law is meant to provide certainty where it otherwise does not exist. When new uncertainties arise, new laws may be created to deal with said uncertainties. However, when the creation of law becomes itself the source of uncertainty, then there is a real problem. That problem can only arise when the lawmakers are overactive. We have that problem now.tryanmaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09881154741574720094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-44929408526591165542012-06-12T16:34:52.754-05:002012-06-12T16:34:52.754-05:00I think the problem with your analysis is that you...I think the problem with your analysis is that you are arguing that because successful implementation of "my way or the highway" has predated political gains, it's a useful strategy. Afterwards, one can do whatever one wants. I mean, just look at John Boehner as an example of someone getting all his policies goals done!<br /><br />Jonathan is arguing that if one accepts a seat at the table, one can effect policy changes that benefit one's side even if one is the minority. This is what Frum argued after ACA passed, for which he became unemployed.<br /><br />There's also two more ideas: first, that the minority may have ideas of merit when it comes to governing, and second, that by actively getting along on the small stuff, routine matters like raising the debt ceiling don't have to cause widespread financial shocks to the economy. <br /><br />The cost of scorched earth politics is too high to allow anyone but the party leaders to progress on their goals. I think a big reason why Republican thinkers are in favor of it is that they really distrust any ideas junior level Republican politicians might have.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-81557803863643130022012-06-12T15:51:53.980-05:002012-06-12T15:51:53.980-05:00Consider this thesis:
Via outright rejectionism t...Consider this thesis:<br /><br />Via outright rejectionism the GOP in the 111th congress DID achieve it's policy goals (as well at its electoral goals).<br /><br />ACA: The bill passes is basically the GOP plan. By being stuck negotiating with its most conservative members to come up with votes, the Dems had to drop popular items like the Public Option.<br /><br />Stimulus: Lots of tax cuts.<br /><br />Dodd-Frank: Quite bank-friendly. <br /><br />Maybe, that was a one-time thing. But the Dems on their own passed very centrist rather than leftist legislation.swainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08696058464538049417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-13388709470369142182012-06-12T15:43:50.718-05:002012-06-12T15:43:50.718-05:00You know, I kinda started my dissertation down par...You know, I kinda started my dissertation down part of this path, and retooled and did the dissertation on another. I could write something up, if you want (it'd be long).Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-13697651695742042202012-06-12T14:00:51.426-05:002012-06-12T14:00:51.426-05:001. I get that, but wouldn't you agree that ob...1. I get that, but wouldn't you agree that obstruction of fiscal expansion (in the name of deficit reduction) undoubtedly helps the out-party because it tamps down the economy? Wouldn't you also agree that an out-party can single-handedly take a broadly popular policy and make it a partisan issue by opposing it in lockstep? Out-and-out rejectionism implies both of these things; and it avoids the necessity of having to pick and choose which of the majority's proposals to support.<br /><br />2. True, the GOP was not able to repeal ACA (which, I assume, is what you mean by "the GOP agenda on health care") in the 112th Congress. But, given how enthusiastic most Dems have been about the legislation, (and assuming it survives SCOTUS) I certainly believe repeal will happen in 2013 if Republicans control the WH and Congress.<br /><br />I also don't see any reason why a GOP-led congress couldn't pass end-of-life counseling, if they really want to. It doesn't matter that they opposed it when it was part of ACA. As you have noted, what's bad about end-of-life counseling (from the GOP perspective) is that <i>it is part of Obamacare</i>. As soon as it's not part of Obamacare, it becomes acceptable again. (Same goes for almost every other provision in the law, other than the mandate.)<br /><br />Note also that, in the last two years, the GOP has made progress on their primary policy goals: reducing government spending and reducing taxes. Hard to imagine the debt-ceiling deal happening, for example, if the GOP hadn't engaged in full-on obstructionism.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-46453422364293102122012-06-12T13:34:43.555-05:002012-06-12T13:34:43.555-05:001. If there's a top ten list of things that I ...1. If there's a top ten list of things that I really want to get across to people, it's not to assume that everything done by winning campaigns helped and not to assume that everything done by losing campaigns hurt.<br /><br />2. On policy goals: really? How much of the GOP agenda on health care has been enacted this year? If ACA survives the Supremes, how likely are Republicans to achieve their health care goals next year -- even if Romney wins and they take the Senate, neither of which is by any means certain? <br /><br />OTOH, it's pretty clear that Republicans could have achieved a fair amount by agreeing to compromise on health care in 2009. <br /><br />Now, it's very possible that most Republicans don't actually have any policy goals on health care, and it's possible that on such a high profile bill the electoral calculus might -- might -- have kicked in. Very hard to say. <br /><br />But for example: there were Republican Members who strongly supported end-of-life counseling. That fell victim to rejectionism. Do you expect it to pass in a GOP-led Congress anytime soon?Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-53867768845030188432012-06-12T13:22:50.033-05:002012-06-12T13:22:50.033-05:00We have two recent examples of an out party engagi...We have two recent examples of an out party engaging in out-and-out rejectionism: 1993 and 2010. Both examples resulted in electoral landslides of historic proportions in favor of the out party.<br /><br />I think that fact is all you need to know in order to gauge how effective out-and-out rejectionism is as an electoral strategy. (The fact that the Democrats scored similar victories in 2006 and 2008 without using such tactics is irrelevant.)<br /><br />What you seem to be saying is that the out party don't have to oppose <i>everything</i> in order to reap the rewards of full-on obstructionism - they just need to oppose the majority's signature proposal, as well as any initiatives that might boost the economy.<br /><br />I fail to see how that makes "rejectionism is the obvious strategy for the out-party because it works" a myth.<br /><br /><i>if Members do have policy goals, rejectionism will likely be terrible strategy most of the time.</i><br /><br />To the contrary, an out-party Member that has strong policy goals would be foolish not to follow the 1993/2010 GOP playbook. If history serves as a guide, that obstructionist Member will be part of a huge majority the next time Congress convenes. Which, presumably, would be a pretty good result for someone with a specific policy goal.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37495301432673860342012-06-12T13:18:31.089-05:002012-06-12T13:18:31.089-05:00I basically agree with your analysis. I think rej...I basically agree with your analysis. I think rejectionism can generally be a successful tactic only when it does not call too much attention to itself.<br /><br />The view that rejectionism is always the best tactic can be disporved simply by looking back a few more election cycles. Rejectionsim was disastrous for the Republicans in 1948, when Truman successfully ran against the Republican Do-Nothing Congress.Garyhttp://selfmadepundit.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com