tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5922666258206658614..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: The House (Non-) LockJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-44776092057980556012013-08-06T09:28:38.054-05:002013-08-06T09:28:38.054-05:00As Carville said: it's the economy, stupid. If...As Carville said: it's the economy, stupid. If the GOP forces a debt default and the (global) economy tanks, then Democrats winning back the House in 2014 might even be possible. <br /><br />Otherwise we'll eventually have another recession and if it happens to occur on an election year or perhaps the year before the election if the following recovery is slow or the recession is especially deep, then the out party will have a good chance of winning the House (and the Presidency).Ron E.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-80219420900582537162013-08-05T18:09:37.244-05:002013-08-05T18:09:37.244-05:00Thanks for the article. It was really very insight...Thanks for the article. It was really very insightful. I'd like to read more like this.Julian De Medeiroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12030661268101219958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77547211658147837952013-08-05T15:56:29.687-05:002013-08-05T15:56:29.687-05:00I meant 2021-22 of course... I meant 2021-22 of course... David Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09260587086663631888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-69001616551079382532013-08-05T15:55:52.239-05:002013-08-05T15:55:52.239-05:00Well, the parties can't gerrymander the govern...Well, the parties can't gerrymander the governors' races, so if 2018 is a good year for the Democrats, it will be hard even for Republican legislatures to get too outrageously pro-GOP maps enacted in 2011-12; they will need not just majorities, but veto-proof majorities...David Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09260587086663631888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-43390115781996495192013-08-05T14:57:05.931-05:002013-08-05T14:57:05.931-05:00It doesn't take very long for district demogra...It doesn't take very long for district demographics to change enough so that previously uncompetitive districts become competitive. Certainly not ten years. By election day, the census data will be four years out of date.<br /><br />And if Democrats are so screwed by redistricting that we don't have a prayer until the next redistricting, how are we ever going to get the advantage we need in order to be able to draw new more favorable districts?Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16387816156204378075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-55996149649654768522013-08-05T13:55:57.333-05:002013-08-05T13:55:57.333-05:00Were you arguing that Democrats would net 17 seats...Were you arguing that Democrats would net 17 seats in a single election? I personally believe that it's possible to get the House back; not through a single, landslide election, but over a few elections, absolutely.<br /><br />If Democrats can net 3-4 House seats next year, they could be in place to takeover by 2018, which still puts you four years ahead of 2022. (All I have to do is assume economic growth*, and three Democratic Presidents working some key Congressional races makes it more likely than not.)<br /><br />* I assume this to show that redistricting has little predictive power compared to incumbency and economic growth.Aaron Morrownoreply@blogger.com