tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post6603864947512999338..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Disaster?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-38766024813091102462012-06-05T06:25:30.712-05:002012-06-05T06:25:30.712-05:00You need to throw in "Israel or the US bombs ...You need to throw in "Israel or the US bombs Iran, leading to massive oil price increases and global economic meltdown" somewhere in there.William Burnsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-46700081412043030502012-06-04T20:20:08.427-05:002012-06-04T20:20:08.427-05:00Looking at the original computation of odds, that ...Looking at the original computation of odds, that just doesn't seem valid in a closely interlinked global economy. They are not independent variables; success/failure with any of them increases the prospects of success/failure with the others.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.com