tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post700757138116934720..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: In Which It Looks Like I Was WrongJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-52270461781051829322011-12-14T15:50:20.259-06:002011-12-14T15:50:20.259-06:00@ModeratePoli
I see your point, but I also think j...@ModeratePoli<br />I see your point, but I also think judging this depends on what one thinks GOP leaders' true goals were. I think they accomplished their political goals, aimed at the 2012 election, quite well; passing policy measures seemed of secondary importance to them -- great if it happened, but not crucial.<br /><br />They didn't get major budget cuts passed, but they commanded the terrain of debate, were able to express deficit hawk political postures before their supporters, and significantly hurt the public's confidence in Obama by helping to stagnate the economy in the short-term. By July, the populace may have in some sense expressed dissatisfaction with games of chicken by everyone, but who cares if it's Obama who suffers the consequences come Nov 2012.<br /><br />These may be dubious wagers on the GOP leaders' part, but I think they're carrying out their partisan political plan quite well. This year-end standoff is just another opportunity for them to do it once again.PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-43865984458474005812011-12-13T16:16:18.063-06:002011-12-13T16:16:18.063-06:00@PF, Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I ...@PF, Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I thought all the stand-offs earlier this year ended with Obama angry, but having a continuing resolution passed. So, a very loud game of chicken. <br /><br />The only big deal was with the debt ceiling, and further debt ceiling increases are now a done deal. And there was a lesson there from the populace not to play chicken.<br /><br />Am I forgetting something? (a definite possibility).ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-49744815484879073102011-12-13T13:13:04.132-06:002011-12-13T13:13:04.132-06:00And thus in a sense JB remains correct: this is a ...And thus in a sense JB remains correct: this is a big story. But now it's just that it's a story about the dog that didn't bark (but by all rights should have).PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27713269137969291102011-12-13T13:11:15.726-06:002011-12-13T13:11:15.726-06:00@Mod
But a big part of the reason to assume that a...@Mod<br />But a big part of the reason to assume that a fall shutdown was likely was that it's of a different nature than a debt ceiling crisis. Stakes are lower and temporary shutdown of government services hurts Dem constituencies more than GOP ones, and it has less direct dire consequences for the financial system. Basically things were all lined up for them to use leverage against Obama in ways that worked well in early 2011 and even in August and probably would have worked just as well if not better now.<br /><br />I guess I'm surprised how much Tea Party fervor has dissipated, or rather surprised how that fervor has channeled itself into the primary season and wholly forgotten about real legislation.PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-33420372523811453582011-12-13T12:42:33.089-06:002011-12-13T12:42:33.089-06:00Maybe you apologized too soon.
From TPM: "De...Maybe you apologized too soon.<br /><br />From TPM: "Dems to GOP: Deal Fairly on Payroll Tax or Shut the Government Down"<br /><br /><br />http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/dems-to-gop-deal-fairly-on-payroll-tax-or-shut-down-the-government.php?ref=fpaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-68042182315530969682011-12-13T12:19:49.948-06:002011-12-13T12:19:49.948-06:00Is it really Boehner who knows what he's doing...Is it really Boehner who knows what he's doing, or one of the others involved in negotiating the August deal? I'm still gobstopped over how the Democrats <a href="http://moderatepoli.blogspot.com/2011/11/unbearable-debt-deal-quantified.html" rel="nofollow">turned the tables</a> with that deal. <br /><br />The deal enforced the message that status quo (with a start on the spending cuts) was better than another fight like this. A lot of people in Congress got the message, not just the leadership.<br /><br />About your acknowledgement that you were wrong, it's great to hear anyone connected with politics say that.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.com