tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post707953865343720492..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Against the TideJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-14379045348678421842010-08-16T13:56:53.709-05:002010-08-16T13:56:53.709-05:00Weigel downplays why Angle has been tagged the &qu...Weigel downplays why Angle has been tagged the "crazy" candidate. All he mentions is her desire to privatize Social Security (which makes her no crazier than Bush). He ignores her wildest statements, such as her "Second Amendment" remark which sounded quite audibly like a threat to Reid's life, not to mention a call for armed rebellion against the government. We all need to step out of our political commentary mode for a moment and pause to think how incredibly disturbing this is. Maybe Reid wanted her as his opponent, and maybe the GOP have shot themselves in the foot by nominating her, but statements like that are not merely stupid but a harbinger of the breakdown of democracy.Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75365138281280447512010-08-16T11:27:33.032-05:002010-08-16T11:27:33.032-05:00One reason I think this might be slightly more imp...One reason I think this might be slightly more important is that control of the House might turn on a half dozen races. Most prognostications have the Republicans picking up between 30 and 40 seats. 40 means they take over. 34 means they're just short (I think, I'm glad to have my math reexamined).<br /><br />So I agree that we're only talking about marginal effects, but it seems like this election's gonna be fought in the margins.<br /><br />I wonder, though, if the word is getting out about too many of these crazies. Sure, Angle and Paul are well known, but what about some Tea Bagger running for Congress somewhere? I haven't heard about too many, and I'm not sure local news has what it takes to discover them anymore.Colbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14262426400735202537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-7736942022774423302010-08-16T10:21:57.019-05:002010-08-16T10:21:57.019-05:00I'm not really sold on the "being prepare...I'm not really sold on the "being prepared this time" part of it being very important. My guess is that there's probably less to it than meets the eye -- it's a combination of selective memory from 1994 and a bit of bravado about 2010. I do think the quality of GOP challengers matters quite a bit, and I'd still like to see more reporting about how many Sharron Angle types (or worse) are being nominated in otherwise competitive races. I think I've seen one reported estimate of around 30, but nothing more concrete.<br /><br />I'd say that half a dozen lost races for the GOP because of candidate quality, with an upside higher than that, sounds plausible to me.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-35371474637687625162010-08-16T10:08:25.607-05:002010-08-16T10:08:25.607-05:00I think there may (possibly, maybe) prove to be a ...I think there may (possibly, maybe) prove to be a larger effect than might be expected, due to the intersection of the two points you mention.<br />House primaries have an even greater propensity than high-profile Senate races to produce challenger nominees with a little of the crazy in them. And, by taking those challengers more seriously from earlier on, vulnerable Dem incumbents (or nominees for open seats) are likely to be much more prepared to discover, publicize, and exploit evidence of the crazy.<br />Not that it will a central driving force of the election cycle, but I think there are already districts where the combination has the Democrat breathing a lot easier, and I would not be surprised if at least a half-dozen GOP candidates (and maybe a lot more) in theoretically "tossup" districts end up losing because of it.David S. Bernsteinhttp://thephoenix.com/blogs/talkingpolitics/noreply@blogger.com