tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post7428717805402627490..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Friday Baseball PostJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-58570153447052762872011-01-31T03:01:26.274-06:002011-01-31T03:01:26.274-06:00Pick up APBA
better than roto though more work.
H...Pick up APBA<br />better than roto though more work.<br /><br />Having Jeff kent during his heyday in Roto was a no-brainer.<br /><br />having him as a 2b6 where the ratings go from 5 (Larry Walker at second ) to 9 (legendary i.e. a Frank White) where 7 is average and 8 is a Boone caliber defender ...<br />well all those miscues start adding up.<br /><br />It also gets you understanding under-rated.<br />Cain rocks in APBA.<br />Oh and give me a high OBP and team where everyone hits near or above 40 doubles even though they are all below 20 HRs ...and I will outscore almost any other team.<br /><br />One thing I have seen translated between APBA and roto.<br />Building up the middle always works.<br />Pitching staff, C, 2B, SS, CF.<br />Then fill in the rest with whatever tier you can find.<br />Yea in roto CF is same as any other OF ... but you get the point.<br /><br />Oh and you damn well better not root against the giants!!!chromehawknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-89966978675015639432011-01-30T19:09:49.404-06:002011-01-30T19:09:49.404-06:00doc,
Yup. What presumably can work is: find the s...doc,<br /><br />Yup. What presumably can work is: find the stuff that is currently undervalued, and play that up until it's no longer undervalued, and repeat forever. Is there always something undervalued enough to beat the house take-out? Hard to tell.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-34597603900171746132011-01-30T18:01:59.805-06:002011-01-30T18:01:59.805-06:00Jonathan, I quite agree that no "brute force&...Jonathan, I quite agree that no "brute force" system can work. But I'd extend that. I don't think any system can work, for precisely the reason you point out. Once the way in which the system has worked has been discovered (or reverse-engineered), then the gambling market will arbitrage away its effectiveness.<br /><br />So while it's possible for someone to have an effective system in the short-run (ala Anonymous's comment, or what shows up in one of Dick Francis's books--I'm blanking on the title), that system will work only so long as its existence as a system is unknown.Don Coffinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07198988872512792834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-83538681304776243152011-01-30T06:11:10.630-06:002011-01-30T06:11:10.630-06:00I knew a guy (now deceased) who was a retired stat...I knew a guy (now deceased) who was a retired statistician from the IRS. He retired to S. Florida and lived on his boat. I knew him from sailing on the Chesapeake and kept up with him from time to time over almost 30 years. I believe what he told me.<br /><br />He used to hang in local bars and once met a guy who after a suitable period of acquaintance asked my friend if he would mind putting down a football bet from time for him with local bookies. They were substantial but not attention attracting amounts and the guy didn't mind if my friend put down some of his own money too. It happened only once or twice a season. What amazed my friend as a professional statistician was that the guy never lost despite sometimes betting against the prevailing odds.<br /><br />So apparently there is a way to win more often than you should at football betting but unfortunately the knowledge resides among shadowy folks with networks of anonymous friends to place the money about and collect the winnings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90669935505703793182011-01-29T22:50:03.170-06:002011-01-29T22:50:03.170-06:00I'd be shocked if any brute force type of syst...I'd be shocked if any brute force type of system worked; presumably, the smart money would move to it until the odds moved and it no longer worked.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-25554027643834944482011-01-29T16:35:20.907-06:002011-01-29T16:35:20.907-06:00Multi years ago, I chaired the Statistical Analysi...Multi years ago, I chaired the Statistical Analysis (research) Committee of the Society for American Baseball Research. We had a newsletter (that continues under other editorship) called By the Numbers, and in it we ran a couple of articles based on simulating a couple of betting strategies. One, as I recall, tested the strategy of betting on teams that had lost 3 or more games in a row and on teams that had won 3 or more games in a row (which struck me, anyway, as an internally contradictory system). The finding was that it was a good way to lose money; the outcomes tended to be random, and, given the vig, the expected loss was about 10%. For baseball, I suspect that would be a typical finding.Don Coffinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07198988872512792834noreply@blogger.com