tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post8034830453934220441..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Health Care: Who Should Liberals Believe?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-7814954074728676642009-12-16T04:46:42.559-06:002009-12-16T04:46:42.559-06:00... but, very rarely it politivs hold it;s purity....... but, very rarely it politivs hold it;s purity.<br />Hey I'm talking about social democratic party of indiatezLAhttp://sdp-india.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-38263204354213633852009-12-15T23:32:00.104-06:002009-12-15T23:32:00.104-06:00Seth -- Thanks!
Heterodox --
Interesting commen...Seth -- Thanks!<br /><br />Heterodox -- <br /><br />Interesting comment. I'll reply at length...<br /><br />On (8): if you think that individual mandates with subsidies would be unpopular, I think that's a fair reason to oppose this bill. I think the evidence leans the other way, though. My guess is that people who currently want insurance but can't get it (because of cost, but especially pre-existing conditions) will be very happy with the results; people who don't want insurance will be somewhat unhappy with it. OTOH, assuming it fully closes the donut hole, which I expect the final bill will, then it's clear that Medicare people will be very, very happy with it, despite being solidly against it now. I'll grant, however, that anyone who is unhappy with health insurance/health care may blame the bill & the Dems, even if their problems have nothing to do with the bill (but that may also be true if the bill fails). Then, also, there's the shorter term factor about the party & Obama keeping their promises. Put it all together, and I think it's solidly a net plus for Dems to pass it.<br /><br />Oh, and the time horizon that matters most is 2010, mostly because it'll tend to fade as an issue regardless, but also because the consequences of a bad election for Dems in 2010 will affect later elections.<br /><br />On (10), I strongly disagree. What hurts the liberal agenda is lack of liberals in Congress (and the rejectionist GOP strategy in the Senate). But overall, a president with a reputation for getting things passed is going to find it easier to get things passed.<br /><br />On 11 & 12: that's pretty straightforward. If the Liebermanned bill passes, liberals can start agitating the next day for putting a public option into reconciliation in 2010 or (more likely) 2011 (I think reconciliation in 2010 is going to be for cap-and-trade). Also, I'm pretty sure that opening up the exchanges could be done through reconciliation...even if it can't, it's pretty easy to imagine expanding the exchanges as a rider to something else.<br /><br />But if this thing fails, it's very hard to see Obama trying again. Ever. We'd probably get S-CHIP expansion, and maybe a little other stuff, but it really would be 1994 all over again.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-44308822169738659192009-12-15T19:30:23.764-06:002009-12-15T19:30:23.764-06:00Excellent post.Excellent post.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-9459762699397974682009-12-15T18:11:16.046-06:002009-12-15T18:11:16.046-06:00I'm going to disagree a bit with respect to 8 ...I'm going to disagree a bit with respect to 8 through 12.<br />8) Looking only at 2010 seriously underestimates the negative impact, electorally, this bill could have. The mandates do not kick in until after 2010, so by selecting that as your evaluation point, you've biased the answer.<br />8a) Same as above with respect to time horizon.<br />9) Obama's approval may tick up slightly, but there is no reason to believe there will be persistence of effect.<br />10) The liberal agenda has been kneecapped by this process. Blue Dogs in the House and ConservaDems in the Senate are just getting started on emasculating the liberal agenda. Their victory in denuding health care is only going to embolden them. (see, for example, past few months of Nelson and Lieberman)<br />11 & 12) Let me turn this one around on you-- what is the plan to improve this bill in the next ten years if Congress passes it? if Congress fails to pass it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com