tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post8869226154107041617..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: The Immaculate NominationJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-84270746762805396092012-03-18T12:46:44.186-05:002012-03-18T12:46:44.186-05:00I understand, but since, like you, they already *k...I understand, but since, like you, they already *know* it's over, and they haven't moved yet, they are already sending a strong signal that they will not be the ones to tell their base that Santorum is not viable. For that, they're going to wait for a big enough external event. That could be Santorum committing some kind of Ford-level gaffe. But most likely it will be an overwhelming Romney victory, something that will look and feel decisive enough for them to hide behind. I bet it happens on April 24, if Mitt easily takes CT, DE, NY, and RI, even with Santorum winning PA.andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-29806175868033507452012-03-18T00:42:36.059-05:002012-03-18T00:42:36.059-05:00Remember, endorsements aren't usually importan...Remember, endorsements aren't usually important because of their direct effect on voters; they're important because they have been good indications of what party actors in general are thinking (and in fact may be used to signal other party actors). <br /><br />So Jeb and DeMint both could contribute useful resources to the campaign, but generally a whole bunch of endorsements would be a strong signal that party actors consider the race over.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-677578911066953732012-03-18T00:39:33.618-05:002012-03-18T00:39:33.618-05:00Just a quick clarification about what I've sai...Just a quick clarification about what I've said: I said that it was over after Florida, and that I should have said it was over after South Carolina. However, the line of thought in this post -- which again, as I say, is speculative -- suggests it really was all over once Perry was done for (which, to be sure, might have been as late as Iowa, but was probably earlier).<br /><br />As to the question you ask...I don't know. I think that #1 is plausible. That's all.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-59894468882084178032012-03-17T12:49:29.889-05:002012-03-17T12:49:29.889-05:00I disagree with some of what you wrote. The GOP di...I disagree with some of what you wrote. The GOP didn't go hard right in response to Obama winning. It started in the base before that with the Bush implosion that became even clearer in 2008. This isn't based on memory--I wondered about the start of the Tea Party movement and <a href="http://moderatepoli.blogspot.com/2011/12/republican-regret-in-2008.html" rel="nofollow">researched conservative blogs</a> back to 2007 to trace the hard right swing.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-54874567293260205092012-03-16T18:11:17.142-05:002012-03-16T18:11:17.142-05:00Perhaps, if they're not that strategic, it cou...Perhaps, if they're not that strategic, it could start out as an effect of their general reluctance to commit to Romney. With time, as they see the effect taking hold, they might see the value in milking it for all it's worth. Hard to prove either way, I suppose.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-46328635392867142962012-03-16T17:19:39.529-05:002012-03-16T17:19:39.529-05:00well Jindal endorsed Perry, so his judgment is not...well Jindal endorsed Perry, so his judgment is not really in high demand right now. All the others have said they won't endorse. I believe Barbour and DeMint. but Daniels, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush still could. However, given the circumstances, I doubt they will mean much. If Daniels did, I imagine he would wait till just before the IN primary, and that might help a bit but it would still be rather late. Kasich and Rubio missed their big chance, and any endorsement now would probably come after some big Romney win, and would seem pretty inconsequential--it would only be a sign of conservative acceptance, not a persuader. Jeb Bush is the one who could still turn all heads, but he's been so loathe to do so, I can't see it happening now.andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-15617470685105790022012-03-16T16:41:25.849-05:002012-03-16T16:41:25.849-05:00See, I'm not sure that they are. During the wh...See, I'm not sure that they are. During the whole debt ceiling debacle in summer 2011, they largely played like responsible adults. It seems like they're unable to play truly nasty hardball in the Democratic House.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-28651884466896714132012-03-16T15:53:43.168-05:002012-03-16T15:53:43.168-05:00Are you saying those votes would come mainly from ...<i>Are you saying those votes would come mainly from House Democrats?</i><br /><br />If I'm a GOP insider, I wouldn't expect a single vote from a Democrat when a unified Republican government has no choice but to raise the debt ceiling. The Democrats are obviously smart enough to demagogue such a vote and remain on the sidelines.<br /><br />The question is, then, which phony Republican to hang this thing on? Over to you, Mitt.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-67222528596270466482012-03-16T15:44:16.667-05:002012-03-16T15:44:16.667-05:00That's pretty likely one of the effects. But, ...That's pretty likely one of the effects. But, is it a cause? Are they THAT strategic? I don't know the answer; just thought I'd toss it out there.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-68221262527603757062012-03-16T15:20:56.804-05:002012-03-16T15:20:56.804-05:00Maybe conservatives are waiting because want him t...Maybe conservatives are waiting because want him to keep sweating and keep committing himself to more and more conservative positions to win their favor. Too early a victory allows hims to forget them and to navigate back toward the center.Scott Monjehttp://foreignpolicyblogs.com/author/scottmonjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-45195582752315360632012-03-16T15:07:56.169-05:002012-03-16T15:07:56.169-05:00I'd say DeMint, Daniels, Jindal, Kasich, J. Bu...I'd say DeMint, Daniels, Jindal, Kasich, J. Bush, Barbour, and Rubio are all pretty big names. Overall, only 12 of 29 GOP govs have endorsed a current candidate, and only 17 of 47 Senators. I don't expect the Congressional leadership to endorse until it's all over, and there are always some who don't at all, but it's still a pretty low total.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-79539169596541642432012-03-16T14:49:34.610-05:002012-03-16T14:49:34.610-05:00Even if current non-endorsers DID break for Romney...Even if current non-endorsers DID break for Romney, I doubt it would do much.<br /><br />For conservatives or pretend conservatives, Romney's already got:<br /><br />Alexander, Ayotte, Blunt, Burr, Coburn, Cochran, Hatch, Hoeven, Johanns, McCain, Portman, Risch, and Thune; Brewer, Christie, Haley, McDonnell, and Snyder (I'm sure he told Walker and Scott to stay away); Pawlenty; Dan Quayle; Cantor, Chaffetz, Foxx, Issa.<br /><br />So who are the remaining "conservative leaders" who could form the as yet unrealized stampede?<br /><br />McConnell, Kyl, DeMint, Grassley, Inhofe, Sessions, Shelby, Toomey, Boehner, Ryan, Hensarling, Jordan, Blackburn.<br /><br />That's about it, isn't it? And a few of them just are not going to endorse at all. I guess Ryan would have the most juice on his own. If several of them endorsed at once, along with a big chunk of the more anonymous members of the RSC, that could be a big deal. <br /><br />Otherwise, I don't see much of a boost for Romney coming from conservatives.andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-62776239704932564252012-03-16T14:38:24.960-05:002012-03-16T14:38:24.960-05:00But President Romney would still need 217 votes in...But President Romney would still need 217 votes in the House for a debt limit increase. Are you saying those votes would come mainly from House Democrats? I guess that's possible.... but it seems likely that the base would blame Congressional Republicans for the increase anyway (why couldn't they filibuster it?!???!).<br /><br />Governing ain't easy! If the GOP sweeps this November, the Tea Party will find that out the hard way.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20303510848070185282012-03-16T14:10:35.960-05:002012-03-16T14:10:35.960-05:00could such leaders believe that supporting a RINO ...<i>could such leaders believe that supporting a RINO would put them at risk?</i><br /><br />Two words: debt ceiling. Per current projections, it will need to be increased just before the election. The GOP no doubt plans to hold the house, plus win the senate and the Presidency in November. <br /><br />Depending on how the 2012 debt ceiling fiasco plays out, if all goes according to GOP plan in November, that party will have to fully own one or two increases of the ceiling in the 113th Congress, unless they get the miraculous relief of skyrocketing revenues from something like another tech bubble.<br /><br />Those debt ceiling increases will not go over well among grass-roots Republicans, especially with no liberals to blame them on, no? President Romney the RINO will likely be the pariah-in-chief at that time; his friends list will double as a grassroots enemies list.<br /><br />Which raises an intriguing speculation: assuming the Right wants to win in November (why wouldn't they?), they have the realistic problem of not being able to avoid ownership of a debt ceiling increase. In that case, they'll need someone to take the heat.<br /><br />What a perfect candidate RINO Romney is for a moment like this.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-73095361525123944822012-03-16T13:16:19.821-05:002012-03-16T13:16:19.821-05:00I wonder if there's another dynamic here. For ...I wonder if there's another dynamic here. For a long time, Republicans have seemed to set great store in saying one thing, while doing another. Talk of fiscal responsibility while running up the deficit's a great example. A lot of the focus-grouped buzz words we've had in recent years -- Clear Skies, health forests, no child left behind, say one thing, do another. <br /><br />Sort of a 'do as I say, not as I do' politicking. It's the appearance that matters, the reality only matters if you get caught in a wide stance.<br /><br />If that's the case, then Romney needs to say the right things rather then do the right things.zicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-6658069897856787552012-03-16T12:11:08.901-05:002012-03-16T12:11:08.901-05:00This is all party of the public shaming that conse...This is all party of the public shaming that conservative elites want Romney to go through to prove that he regrets being a moderate and not a movement conservative. The "mau-mauing" of Romney is what Chait calls it and I think that's a decent term for it. Conservative elites have lots of reasons to distrust Romney, namely that he's not really one of them. So before they hand the keys to the party over to him, he's got to go through this shaming process which involves much more than just parroting back policy positions. Again, this is all painful to watch as Romney squirms as if to say, "Just tell me what you want me to say, I'll say it!" But this ugly process gets them what they want: the "moderate" candidate who's been forged into a movement conservative.jcbhannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-11007560703695482482012-03-16T12:01:33.406-05:002012-03-16T12:01:33.406-05:00My dad would call this Republican nomination a rac...My dad would call this Republican nomination a race up a ladder.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-22717684361824116172012-03-16T11:58:53.870-05:002012-03-16T11:58:53.870-05:00How do you reconcile this with the recent Fox News...How do you reconcile this with the recent Fox News interview where Romney was forced to watch a videotape of himself endorsing a federal health care mandate in 2009?<br /><br />Or do you think that interviewer was acting independently?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-35586942803101869482012-03-16T11:48:16.551-05:002012-03-16T11:48:16.551-05:00interesting theory. I think you're overthinki...interesting theory. I think you're overthinking it a bit much. Conservative elites know that Santorum is a loser so they're not going to embrace him. Ever. They don't like Romney because he's not one of them. Never has been. But he's willing to endorse every single policy position that they want him to and I'm sure he's given every assurance necessary that he'll govern as a movement conservative, even if he isn't one. So the result of all these calculations is that Romney will win this by default and conservative elites get exactly what they want: the candidate with the best chance to beat Obama, and a candidate that has adopted the policy positions of a movememnt conservative. If this is all weird and unprecedented, this shouldn't be surprising. The GOP went hard to the right in 2008 after Obama won, when normal survival instints for a party should have kicked in and told them to moderate. <br /><br />Thus we have the paradox that explains the 2012 election: the GOP's hard right turn and obstruction made Obama beatable (by watering down his policy achievements and blocking him from further fiscal stimulus), however it also pushed the party so far right it was difficult to nominate a competent, moderate politician that could capitalize on Obama's vulnerability. The reluctant but inevitable embrace of Romney is the GOP's attempt to thread that needle.jcbhannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-39244740437862647922012-03-16T11:43:21.375-05:002012-03-16T11:43:21.375-05:00This sounds like post-hoc justification for the Ro...This sounds like post-hoc justification for the Romney-as-inevitable thesis that you've been pushing since at least January.<br /><br />I do agree with your premise: it <i>is</i> odd that conservative leaders complain about Romney all the time and yet they haven't thrown their support to any viable alternative. So, what's the explanation for this? Here are two possibilities:<br /><br />(1) Even though they whine incessantly about Romney, "virtually every[]one" of these prominent party leaders actually secretly supports Mitt (because they're afraid of Santorum getting demolished in the GE) and yet they are afraid to say so because of some hypothetical backlash from constituents that "[n]ormally" doesn't even exist;<br /><br />or<br /><br />(2) They don't like Romney and they don't like Santorum (and it goes without saying that they don't like the other two also-rans); so they are genuinely undecided.<br /><br />Which explanation seems more likely?Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-86353304589822234492012-03-16T11:39:28.047-05:002012-03-16T11:39:28.047-05:00Let's see if I understand the logic:
a) It...Let's see if I understand the logic:<br /><br />a) It's toxic in today's GOP to support a RINO<br />b) Only a RINO can win the general<br />c) Better to have the RINO thrust upon you by anonymous collective default.<br /><br />This dynamic suggests a kind of reversal of the conventional GOP psychoanalysis: the ego wants ideological purity but the id wants to win.<br /><br />A further twist is the self-cancelling nature of Romney's campaign logic: only a moderate can win/I'm not a moderate. Rather than running to the right now and the center later, he's sort of doing both at once.Andrew Sprunghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17601269968798865106noreply@blogger.com