Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Ignore Those Polls!

I really hate these questions:
From what you saw and heard about the Court hearings on the health care law, opinion of the [health care law/Supreme Court] hasn't changed; less favorable; more favorable
What Pew gets from the question is that reactions were sharply partisan to last week's SCOTUS dog-and-pony show, which is of course no surprise and is no doubt true.

Still, I hate the question. I mean -- 35% of all Republicans claim that they have a less favorable view of ACA, while 59% report no change. But what does that mean? I have no idea. After all, anyone who already believed that ACA was the end of freedom in the US was unlikely to actually think even worse of it after three days of hearings, right? Does this finding mean that a third of all Republicans hadn't really payed attention to the arguments against ACA until now, and were now adopting the views of other (unchanged) Republicans? Or does it mean that about a third of all Republicans search out the most partisan answer -- so that they really didn't change their minds at all about health care reform, but dislike it so much that they want to give the most negative answer? Or maybe it's a group who did in fact hate ACA before -- but now, like Brian trying to get into the PFJ, they now hate the ACA a lot.

I have no idea. Nor do I really trust people to remember what they thought about things two weeks ago.

I'm not saying that these questions are totally content-free; after all, the fact that responses are highly partisan suggests that it's picking up something real. It's just that it's not particularly easy to figure out exactly what is being picked up. And when I have no idea what the answers mean, my guess is it's best to just ignore them.

Read Stuff, You Should

Happy Birthday to Mike Ness of Social D, 50.

Sorry for the slow blogging yesterday. You know what's good times? A 24 hour stomach thing. At least I hope it's only a 24 hour thing...

And some good stuff:

1. Brendan Nyhan on the GSA scandal.

2. Via Sarah Kliff, Andrea Seabrook and Alex Blumberg have some fun data about Hill fundraisers.

3. You know what makes Stan Collender cranky? Bowles-Simpson talk.

4. You know what makes Ezra Klein even more cranky? GOP inconsistency on health care. See also Kevin Drum's conclusion.

5. And even more on the George Romney/John Lindsay thing, from John Bohrer.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Vicious TV Attacks on 1960s Politicians

So those who don't watch Mad Men woke this morning to find that a TV show had taken a shot at Mitt Romney's dad. Let's get into it!

First: the character who calls Michigan Governor George Romney a "clown" is an operative for New York City Mayor John Lindsay, and for that matter not one who we in the audience are supposed to be, as far as I can tell, particularly fond of.* At the time, both Romney and Lindsay were positioning for the 1968 Republican nomination, on the hope that the Goldwater debacle of 1964 would make a liberal Republican the choice -- and, as Garry Wills tells it, on the assumption that Kennedy-like "charisma" was needed against LBJ (see also  here for more Wills quotes on G. Romney; and here for Brad DeLong on Nixon Agonisties).

Dave Weigel says:
This episode of Mad Men was set in 1966, when George Romney was about to be re-elected governor. He was one of the best-known critics of the GOP's conservative wing; he trashed Barry Goldwater for his Civil Rights Act vote, and would say in speeches that "state's rights" was a weasely term that excused racism. A liberal New York Republican would like Romney.
 Would Francis feel otherwise because Romney threatened his client's national ambitions? Maybe, but the "clown" line still sounds out of place. The myth of Romney's foolishness really got going when he gave an interview in 1967 about his shifting position on the Vietnam War. He said, mea culpa, that he'd had "the greatest brainwashing" from generals and the diplomatic core.
See also Ezra Klein, who says that "In 1966, George Romney was an incredibly admirable politician."

Two things. One is that Wills has Robert McNamara helping Romney to get his political career going (remember, they were both auto industry executives), but later believing that the problem with Romney was "no brains." Unfortunately, Wills doesn't tell us where he got that from, or more to the point when he got it from, and I couldn't find it after a quick search (and remember -- it was McNamara's DOD and generals that Romney was criticizing). My impression is that (as Wills basically says) George Romney was always vulnerable to getting a "no brains" reputation, and that one reason the "brainwashed" gaffe hurt him was that it was taken to confirm something that political insiders already believed.

The second and more important thing is that it's certainly very possible that a politician could hold positions on matters of public policy which one agrees with, and which may even be courageous in a way, but still be widely viewed as a moron; indeed, it's possible that such a politician might actually be a moron. There's a natural tendency to attribute smarts to those who agree with us on issues, and moreover to assume that the side politicians take on pressing issues of the day tell us something about those politicians. But neither of these is a safe assumption. It's true that many choices politicians make come from their beliefs about the world; it's also true that choices politicians make are just responses to the incentives they are faced with. Granted, one might believe that a politician is admirable even when (and again, not saying it's true in this case) she's a moron and her positions are just what her pollster told her to take, but I probably wouldn't agree.

As for George Romney...I really don't know whether his reputation among insiders was already formed in 1966, pre-brainwashing. But I suspect so.Nor do I have any idea at all whether the reputation was deserved. I am certain, however, that admirable positions on public policy give us surprisingly little hint about the intellectual firepower of politicians.



*100 years from now, Lindsay will be even more forgotten than he is now -- but will achieve immortality as Gotham Mayor Linseed on the Adam West Batman show. Hey, you take what you can get in politics.

Read Stuff, You Should

Happy Birthday to Reggie Smith, 67. Smith is a severely underrated player; he was, I think, clearly a HOF-type player. Well, not actually a HOF-type: he didn't do the kinds of things that HOF players do. But he was better than a lot of guys who are in. There's a class of players that he belongs to: Smith, Fred Lynn, Bobby Bonds, Cesar Cedeno, Ellis Burks, Bobby Murcer. Chili Davis, even. They came up young as all-star CFs but shifted away early enough that they're not always thought of as CFs -- especially if they wound up with a good run as a slugging corner outfielder. But they don't wind up with the HR numbers to really make them thought of as great sluggers. And their career paths leave them with a reputation for being disappointments. Most of them are hurt by having wide-ranging talents rather than specializing in one thing; a lot of them tended to do things that have traditionally been overlooked. Any way, Reggie Smith was a much better ballplayer than, Kirby Puckett and Jim Rice, was almost certainly better than Andre Dawson, and may well have been better than Tony Gwynn. And, of course, he helped the Giants almost steal a division title they had no business winning.

On to the good stuff.

1. Lots and lots about privatizing infrastructure, by Brad Plumer.

2. Good piece on ACA from Harold Pollack, responding to Ross Douthat.

3. Kevin Clarke and David Primo, on how to go about doing social science.

4. Conor Friedersdorf argues that antiwar activists should put their energies into electing Senators, not presidents. I'm not sure I agree with him overall about several of his points, but I certainly agree with him that electing Senators is important.


5. And Alyssa Rosenberg is absolutely correct about YA literature.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Sunday Question for Liberals

I last asked about this a year ago, when Nancy Pelosi had just turned 71. She's now 72. She was, in my view, an extremely effective Speaker -- but is it time for Democrats to look to replace her as their House leader in the next Congress, or should they try to keep her as long as they can (or at last until the 2014 elections)?

Sunday Question for Conservatives

Who are the rising Republican stars in the House? Especially interested in anyone who hasn't yet received national attention, whether it's a new Member or someone who has been around for a while.

What Mattered This Week?

Well, there was that thing with ACA and the Supremes.

Syria again, and I guess the Iran sanctions.

For the new regulations on coal, see here. Not sure whether that means it matters or not.

The House budget vote was this week...certainly doesn't have any substantive importance (although I guess it does tell us what Appropriations will be doing on the House side), but it's another vote that people are going to be attacking this fall.

What else? What do you think mattered this week?
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