Okay, we're down (in my view) to eight serious possibilities for the Republican nomination for President of the United States of America. Three are actively running right now: Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour. Five are at various stages of semi, barely, or not at all running (but could, in my view, still get in and have a chance): Palin, Huck, Jeb, Daniels, and Rick Perry. Out of that group, who do you want to win? Who, if anyone, do you find totally unacceptable?
Of those 8? Daniels, Pawlenty and Jeb - in that order. Jeb...?ReplyDelete
Somehow, I wonder what Christie is really up to. I heard that he wowed the NRCC this past week...why is he making these speeches? I know he says he's not running. I know he says he's not ready. But part of him enjoys these "national" speeches/events...
I'm not sure by what rationale you write off Bachmann. If neither Palin and Huck run, which appears more likely than not at this point, she could lock down the Tea Party/social conservative vote and run strong among women, while the rest of the field splits the reasonable/establishment/moderate wing of the party.ReplyDelete
Lester Freamon, I'm challenging your notion Bachmann would 'run strong with women." It's true, both Palin and Bachmann run strong with a very small subset of women, they don't run strong with women in general, I think. Instead, I suspect they run strong with white men over 50.ReplyDelete
"Runs strong with women" often translates into "men like her, so think women do, too."
>I know he says he's not running. I know he says he's not ready. But part of him enjoys these "national" speeches/events...ReplyDelete
Yes. And after Obama's rapid turnaround in 2006 on whether to enter the race, all bets are off for any future candidate who claims he is absolutely and assuredly not running.
One problem, though, is that if Christie walks back on this promise, it may damage his straight-shooting rep that is part of what has made him so appealing to some Republican pundits.
If Christie gets in the race, expect to see plenty of political commercials with him saying he's not ready. Inthe primaries as well as the genreal election (if he gets the GOP Nomination).ReplyDelete
The kind of women that Palin and Bachmann run strong with are, I suspect, a substantial proportion of the women who vote in Republican primaries.ReplyDelete
I'm pretty persuaded by Steve Kornacki's argument (http://www.salon.com/news/2012_elections/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2011/03/04/christie_president_hesitation) that Christie knows if he runs for President he can't have a second term as Governor and is really quite ready to bide his time until there's less of a downside to running, e.g., 2016.ReplyDelete
The kind of women that Palin and Bachmann run strong with are, I suspect, a substantial proportion of the women who vote in Republican primaries.
My recollection is that polls show Palin doing better with men than with women in every demographic. I don't think I've seen any polling on Bachmann.
If Christie is going to run in 2016, does he even run for re-election in 2013?ReplyDelete
Also if you exclude him from the plausible 8, you should exclude Jeb and Perry who have been comparably adamant about not running. Unless the argument is Christie couldn't win if he ran, which seems silly to presume. Huck, Palin, Daniels at least say they're on fence.
As an aside, I've long agreed with theory in DB's tweet that 2012 is comparable to 2004 Dems. And the Massachusetts flip-flopper, linkable to president on issue that most galvanized the base could again win. Also, Romney, like Kerry, has a background suited to the specific election: business in recession, war veteran to challenge wartime incumbent. One difference from 2012: there were few candidates who had consistently opposed the Iraq War. Kucinich wasn't taken seriously, Graham dropped out in 2007 and Dean imploded in Iowa. This time, all non-Romneys did not pass mandatory healthcare. However, the GOP's traditional reluctance to nominate first time candidates could offset Romney's disadvantage.
Will the GOP candidates be able to reject Paul Ryan's entitlement reform proposals or will doing so be politically fatal? I'd guess it'll ultimately be difficult and the (increasingly unpopular) Tea Party will push the nominee rightward. Especially if a candidate like Bachmann, Cain or Palin gets any traction.
I'm supporting Gary Johnson (he’s not on your list, but he’s certainly running). It doesn’t really concern me that he’s a long shot. The primary is my chance to support the best candidate.ReplyDelete
Rejecting entitlement reforms will be the ONLY way to win a Republican primary. There are too many people with their fingers in the pie, far more than there are those paying in. Theater and not real reform is what is demanded, otherwise you are writing off 30% or more of the likely primary electorate, in one fell swoop.ReplyDelete
Forgive this Canadian his dumb question, but why isn't Gary Johnson perceived as a strong candidate? He ticks a lot of boxes.ReplyDelete
Johnson supports abortion rights and gay marriage. In today's GOP primaries, both are no-nos.ReplyDelete
Godforbid Rick Perry runs for President. That man is a crook through and through.ReplyDelete
I think Gary Johnson would be a very strong candidate in the general election, possibly the best bet Republicans have. But he will struggle in the GOP primary because he is a libertarian. In addition to supporting civil unions and calling himself “pro choice,” he wants to legalize marijuana and end the war on drugs. He also supports a noninterventionist foreign policy.
Daniels, Barbour, Pawlenty, Romney. Rest are unacceptable.ReplyDelete