tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post1827534211679231626..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Read Stuff, You ShouldJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77383903400877021262012-11-01T07:30:06.227-05:002012-11-01T07:30:06.227-05:00I don't have any examples at hand, so trust me...I don't have any examples at hand, so trust me or no, but I'll stand by what I said. <br /><br />Just as there are plenty of people who don't believe in science and math in part because they don't understand them, there are plenty of people who *believe* in science without understanding it -- who believe in it the way that others believe in seances or tarot cards. Just because science is not, in fact, magic, doesn't change that.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-31900777430161776382012-10-31T18:30:38.700-05:002012-10-31T18:30:38.700-05:00Some of the problem must be that many of Silver...Some of the problem must be that many of Silver's supporters don't really understand the upshot of his work; specifically, Silver currently has Obama at 77% odds of winning, which many of Silver's fans take to mean he's "picking" Obama to win. In a statistical sense, you can't say Silver "picks" Obama until Obama's at 95% - or even 99% - probability of winning. As it stands, all Silver is saying is that Obama is "more likely" to emerge victorious, but Romney could also very well win, so if Romney wins don't come bitch at him the way you dilettantes complained about intrade after it said that the mandate had a 37% chance of being upheld by SCOTUS...from which intrade was therefore, you all declared, "proven wrong".<br /><br />The upshot of the uncertainty inherent in a 77% chance of Obama winning has a bearing on how you should regard Silver too. Since all Silver is saying is "Obama will probably win but very well might not", then the value you place in him is a function of whether you believe his inputs or, alternatively, someone you trust confirms that his inputs are valid. Anyone can pull a bunch of assumptions out of his/her keyster and say "Candidate X will probably win but Candidate Y very well might win too" - the only way that statement has utility for you is if you have reason to value the place it came from (as opposed to the proverbial keyster).<br /><br />To be sure, I think Silver is pretty good and is not pulling his data from somewhere untoward. But given the underappreciated uncertainty in any of his (below 95%) forecasts, if you're not comfortable with where he gets his assumptions, its not unreasonable to disregard his work.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-23248468881004271452012-10-31T17:46:13.572-05:002012-10-31T17:46:13.572-05:00In terms of the accuracy of the polls, the element...In terms of the accuracy of the polls, the element you mention that may turn out to matter is the Spanish language and Latino polling problem. I saw a Latino publication's poll that showed very high voter interest, and very high preference for President Obama. <br /><br />What's confusing me now are the contradictory claims about early voting. Ezra Klein etc. sees Obama campaign meeting its goals, some others agree that Obama is doing very well, but still others (Pew) say it's about even and one (Gallup, apparently) says Romney is ahead. <br />Captain Futurehttp://dreamingup.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-34349019203173802782012-10-31T13:57:46.010-05:002012-10-31T13:57:46.010-05:00STFU spammerSTFU spammerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-53783484740235705152012-10-31T13:27:28.377-05:002012-10-31T13:27:28.377-05:00To back up JB, I'll quote (actually paraphrase...To back up JB, I'll quote (actually paraphrase) one of my favorite authors, Arthur C. Clarke. "Any significantly advanced technology, seen from the perspective of a less developed culture, is indistinguishable from magic and may be treated as such." <br /><br />Now, Clarke meant that it might be treated as such in terms of a fictional narrative. But the psychological insight is fungible. To persons who are not very well versed in high-level mathematics, never mind statistics and probability theory, Nate Silver's model is indistinguishable from a magical formula, and may be treated as such with regard to the way the mind constructs explanations of the world. (Harry Potter waves a wand and speaks college-sophomore Latin, producing a silver Patronus to repel the Dementors. Hurray! Nate Silver clicks his computer keys, mutters mathematical and computer jargon, and produces a prediction to dismay Republicans. Hurray!). Either way it seems to work, and trying to understand it would a)require more background and basic aptitudes than most people have; b) require an expenditure of effort beyond what most people are willing to put out; and c) not really help the average person in any appreciable way. Therefore, call it White Magic (or Black Magic if you don't like it) and move on to the chase scene (i.e. election day).Anastasiosnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-44161875189085775442012-10-31T10:56:22.009-05:002012-10-31T10:56:22.009-05:00I don't have any examples at hand, so trust me...I don't have any examples at hand, so trust me or no, but I'll stand by what I said. <br /><br />Just as there are plenty of people who don't believe in science and math in part because they don't understand them, there are plenty of people who *believe* in science without understanding it -- who believe in it the way that others believe in seances or tarot cards. Just because science is not, in fact, magic, doesn't change that.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-33741214605911328112012-10-31T10:50:28.759-05:002012-10-31T10:50:28.759-05:00I actually do think there are some people who mist...<i>I actually do think there are some people who mistakenly have treated him as a wizard; I don't think his detractors made that up</i><br /><br />Um, yeah, his detractors did make that up. <br /><br />Nobody thinks Nate is a "wizard". Many people marvel at the complexity of his model, but no one thinks he is capable of magic. Everyone understands he is just taking publicly-available data and churning out an educated, <i>scientific</i> guess.<br /><br />It's an insult to call what Nate does "wizardry" -and that's exactly what Nate's detractors had in mind when they conjured it up.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-69321557532383169702012-10-31T08:35:36.571-05:002012-10-31T08:35:36.571-05:00If read the information below, you will understand...If read the information below, you will understand that the emails sent from our Consulate in Benghazi had started our military response, orders were given to stand down, our military leaders tried to help anyway, and they have now been fired by Obama, or someone just below him.<br /><br />The Full Story on Benghazi, our Military Response, Security, and Obama<br /><br />http://strategicthought-charles77.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-full-story-on-benghazi-our-military.html <br />charles77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14430092306483676052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-64310368135130620462012-10-31T08:35:18.041-05:002012-10-31T08:35:18.041-05:00The Obama national security team, including CIA, D...The Obama national security team, including CIA, DNI, State Department and the Pentagon, watched and listened to the assault but did nothing to answer repeated calls for assistance. It has been reported that President Obama met with Vice President Joseph R. Biden and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta in the Oval Office, presumably to see what support could be provided. After all, we had very credible military resources within striking distance. At our military base in Sigonella, Sicily, which is slightly over 400 miles from Benghazi, we had a fully equipped Special Forces unit with both transport and jet strike aircraft prepositioned. Certainly this was a force much more capable than the 22-man force from our embassy in Tripoli. <br /><br />Read more: LYONS: Obama needs to come clean on what happened in Benghazi - Washington Times http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/28/lyonsobama-needs-come-clean-what-happened-benghazi/#ixzz2Asp10odi <br />Follow us: @washtimes on Twittercharles77https://www.blogger.com/profile/14430092306483676052noreply@blogger.com