tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post2390880732207744465..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Unemployment Makes a Comeback (Presidential Campaign Version)Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-18307789573295201662011-02-25T15:55:38.965-06:002011-02-25T15:55:38.965-06:00Matt,
I don't think you guys recognize how mu...Matt,<br /><br />I don't think you guys recognize how much of a joke the New Hampshire GOP electorate is to most Republicans. It's the same way you guys felt towards the West Virginia Democrat Party electorate. Both electorates are just stray way too far from the average Republican electorate to have any real significance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-91291145044308872632011-02-25T15:30:56.002-06:002011-02-25T15:30:56.002-06:00Anonymous:
I would put Bachmann as a less serious ...Anonymous:<br />I would put Bachmann as a less serious contender than almost anyone on the planet. She's routinely says absolutely bat-shit crazy stuff. Justin Buchler has a fun little project where he tracks how many epithets come up in Google when you search for pols, and Bachmann trips every single one of those. While the GOP base is embracing the ideologically crazy, Bachmann is just too far out there. Her name recognition is actually very high, according to the Google measure at least. I found one survey that shows she has 60% name recognition amongst potential GOP voters in Iowa, so that ain't too bad, probably higher than Daniels or Pawlenty.<br /><br />Or, if you go off intrade, she's running at 3.8%, whereas Daniels is running at 11.2 and<br /> Tpaw at 11.1, so the hive mind thinks they're more likely.<br /><br />And, for a Romney path in that field: places 2nd in IA to Huck, wins a relatively uncontested NH, places 2nd in SC to Huck again, and has the money to beat Huck into the ground in FL/Super Tuesday. It's a plausible path, I think. I still don't think it holds, though...I don't think he'll do very well in SC at all, and I'm just not sure that he will want to spend as much of his money this go around as he did last time. So, like you, I'm relatively down on his chances. <br /><br />Of course, as Jon has noted more than once, this is an odd field. Almost every one of them has a fatal flaw. Not just a flaw, but the kind of thing that should prevent them from getting the nomination. But someone has to win. I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won. But, right now, I'm placing all my bets on "I have no clue who will win"Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-8223928043850433042011-02-25T14:55:48.849-06:002011-02-25T14:55:48.849-06:00By the way, I agree that Bachmann has no chance. ...By the way, I agree that Bachmann has no chance. She's simply a spoiler right now for Romney and the more moderate candidates.<br /><br />the problem for Romney is that there are more Daniels/Pawlenty types getting into the race than Bachmann types.<br /><br />I don't see why you would believe Perry is strong. The DailY kos pollster found him behind both Palin and Huckabee in Texas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-65929674521778347412011-02-25T14:54:11.237-06:002011-02-25T14:54:11.237-06:00Under what logic are Daniels and Pawlenty more ser...Under what logic are Daniels and Pawlenty more serious contenders than Bachmann?<br /><br />Bachmann polled higher than Daniels and Pawlenty in Gallup even though her name recognition is probably not as high as theirs. I recognize that there's a huge myth out there that nobody knows who Daniels and Pawlenty are but that's just not reflected in the polling. The people who know them just don't support them (it's similar to the myth that Palin is that much more well-known that Huckabee or Romney or Newt).<br /><br />Once again, national polling matters contrary to what everyone says. There simply isn't that much of a chance of states acting a completely different manner than what the national polling suggests unless you really believe that only people in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina watch the news.<br /><br />Can someone outline a scenario for a Romney victory in this race: Palin/Huckabee (only one runs), Pawlenty, Daniels, Romney, Huntsman?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-1098843330653040222011-02-25T14:23:11.787-06:002011-02-25T14:23:11.787-06:00Well, Barbour will be out of a job next January wh...Well, Barbour will be out of a job next January when his term is up in Mississippi. How do you rate someone who is in public office during the invisible primary but not during the nominating contests? Employment status as of the point of having won enough delegates to secure the nomination? If he were to win the nomination he will have wrapped it up out of office.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90202580743996940562011-02-25T13:56:18.715-06:002011-02-25T13:56:18.715-06:00Perry does kind of stand out, doesn't he? He&...Perry does kind of stand out, doesn't he? He's the longest-serving governor in the U.S., he's the governor of the GOP superstate, as far as I know he doesn't have any of the various factions mad at him, and maybe he could ride some of that "Texas vs. California" crap. I mean, I have no idea what his actual record has been, but neither does or will anyone else, so whatever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com