tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post2404852174754298300..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: (How) Does The Information Loop Matter?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-78078722201720515162010-04-27T11:43:57.912-05:002010-04-27T11:43:57.912-05:00I don't think the importance of Fox, Rush etc ...I don't think the importance of Fox, Rush etc is in their misinformation as much as it is in motivating their base. They reach that 20 - 22% of the population that are authoritarian followers, and get them to the polls. That;s why preaching to the choir is important. 20% of the population is a damned potent block, on top of other conservatives and whatever centrists they can sway. <br /><br />One problem with democracy is that fools vote, while some of the thinking people say, "what's the use?" and stay home. Presidential Elections are seldom far from 54-46. A solid, dependable voting block can make a big difference.<br /><br />Only part of why we are so screwed,<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-5414238280931738332010-04-27T09:56:33.336-05:002010-04-27T09:56:33.336-05:00Barry,
I think Clinton's lousy approval ratin...Barry,<br /><br />I think Clinton's lousy approval ratings (worse than the economy would have predicted) were a factor, and then the question is whether his approval ratings were low because of GOP attacks, Dole's success, and/or Clinton's mistakes. <br /><br />Andrew,<br /><br />I think that's a pretty selective version of the economic news, especially the "adding jobs" portion of it -- we've had all of one month of adding jobs, and 2009 was brutal. Now, if economic growth in 2010 matches 4th quarter 2009, and we have steady job growth from here through November...well, if that happens, then I very much doubt that the GOP is going to win big in 2010. As it is, people overwhelmingly still believe the recession is still here, just as they did in November 1992, and I think that's the obvious reason for Democratic weakness.<br /><br />Oh, and I should have once again cited Alan Abromowitz's projection based only on the size of the Dem majority and the fact of a Dem president, which was a 37 seat GOP pickup. I saw Charlie Cook yesterday saying 30-40, so I'd say the current projections are exactly what one would expect without any Fox News effect at all.<br /><br />http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/12/forecast_suggests_gop_could_win_37_house_seats.htmlJonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-85414677242018821892010-04-27T09:35:57.673-05:002010-04-27T09:35:57.673-05:00Those things haven't actually happened, and so...<i>Those things haven't actually happened, and so crediting them to anyone seems awful premature to me.</i><br /><br />No, they haven't happened yet.... but they are <i>projected</i> to happen.<br /><br />Frankly, if I was a GOP strategist in 2009, and you had told me that as of spring of 2010:<br /><br />- GDP growth is strong<br />- The economy is adding jobs<br />- The unemployment rate is declining<br />- The Dow is soaring<br />- Obama passed his trademark domestic initiative<br /><br />and yet, <i>still</i>, the polls indicated a bloodbath for Democrats in November.... well, I would be very, very pleased. I would have no reason to think things would dramatically turn around before November. <br /><br />And I just might be tempted to give credit to the right-wing media machine for some of this good fortune!Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-60345456374430579512010-04-27T09:03:31.260-05:002010-04-27T09:03:31.260-05:00"But after that...in which elections did Repu..."But after that...in which elections did Republicans do better than one would expect based on economic and other fundamentals? "<br /><br />The GOP really didn't do better than the economic fundamentals would have predicted in 1994, IMHO. I've seen a timeline of job losses/gains for the recession of 1991, and the curve juuuust started to go up in 1994, after two/three flat years, and one declining year. <br /><br />Given that 'flat' means 'same number of jobs for a growing labor force', and the ratio of jobs to workers probably was decreasing right through sometime in 1994, at least.Barry DeCiccohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04735814736387033844noreply@blogger.com