tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post3090087321332944043..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Shutdown Showdown NotesJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-4459229320574049212011-04-08T21:52:02.511-05:002011-04-08T21:52:02.511-05:00I'm probably dead wrong here, but I fear a shu...I'm probably dead wrong here, but I fear a shutdown could be far lengthier and uglier than the "Its-down-to-Planned-Parenthood" meme would suggest.<br /><br />Obama is driving the Democratic train here, yes? If he and Reid disagree, Reid surely changes his mind. Whether the ACA, Libya, or any of a number of other events in his Administration, Obama has shown a preternatural ability to keep his powder dry. Considering what happened to the Republicans with the mid-90s shutdown, Obama has the motive, to go with the temperament, to wait.<br /><br />Boehner's got the problem of the bloodthirsty mobs in the Tea Party, who have shown a willingness to nuke otherwise solid GOPers who do not hew to their ideology. It wasn't long ago that this blog concluded that Boehner's best bet, given the braying of the Tea Party mobs, was to continue to obstruct and obfuscate...but in this exercise that's impossible, because eventually he has to sign off on a deficit-cutting number, and the odds are very high it will be too small for the Tea Party purists.<br /><br />So both sides have strong motivations to wait much longer than the climate would predict right now...(having written this it will probably be settled before I hit post!).CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-63372293779019970332011-04-08T20:40:44.486-05:002011-04-08T20:40:44.486-05:00@phat: saving their asses from primary challengers...@phat: saving their asses from primary challengers, since they think their general elections are safe. At least, around 150 of them think that. A bunch of these TeaParty freshman think that the voters are with them back home, and they'll find out the opposite is true when the red tide recedes.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-74233876948099369032011-04-08T19:13:38.830-05:002011-04-08T19:13:38.830-05:00I honestly can't see an upside for the Republi...I honestly can't see an upside for the Republicans in this and I can only see downside. What on earth are they doing?phathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07711722602776883761noreply@blogger.com