tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post3428754426604625087..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Iron Laws of PoliticsJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37947861282306472292010-09-21T18:22:05.188-05:002010-09-21T18:22:05.188-05:00The above comment might have been me, posting as a...The above comment might have been me, posting as anonymous (it was nearly a year ago, I don't remember), but something I've been thinking about lately:<br /><br />35 of America's presidents have served as Vice President, Governor, or Senator.<br />4 were significant Army generals renowned as national heroes.<br />3 were extraordinary Cabinet Secretaries (the most significant and prominent figures in their administrations).<br />1 was the House Majority Leader, and a Senator-elect, who ALSO doubled as a general of some renown.<br />And 1 was Lincoln, a former Congressman, who I think gets a sui generis pass.<br /><br />The pattern of nominees, save a few odd exceptions (Greeley, Davis, Willkie), follows much the same pattern.<br /><br />In considering the claims of future aspirants to the job, therefore, we have to consider how extraordinarily unlikely it would be for someone who doesn't fit the above categories to overcome the immense hurdles in terms of campaign experience, fundraising, media coverage, political nous and political connections involved in a presidential race.<br /><br />I mention this because my particular field of intellectual interest is that one week in 1996 when it was conventional wisdom that Pat Buchanan was the likely next nominee, which serves as a useful check on taking the press seriously ever again.Douglashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06345079564133624529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-54578279039570570612009-11-21T05:43:58.749-06:002009-11-21T05:43:58.749-06:00Just a sidenote on the House seat rule:
There'...Just a sidenote on the House seat rule:<br /><br />There's never a politician so talented or so absolutely sure of themselves that they think they have a better chance of becoming President than becoming governor or senator, and being governor or senator is always, ALWAYS, better than being a Congressperson.<br /><br />Therefore, the only ones who run for President are the ones who have no chance of becoming governor or senator, and are therefore unable to be elected anyway. Gephardt and Udall are the only exceptions in recent history; Udall was aided by a famous family and a very poor field for liberals, and Gephardt...well, I don't understand why Gephardt did so well in 1988, but it's illustrative that he never came particularly close.<br /><br />So the moral is: if you're a congressperson, you can blow it all on a tiny chance to be President or you can make the rational decision and become a senator.<br /><br />Yes, all this is perfectly obvious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com