tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post3499148830515411713..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: New Hampshire and Beyond NotesJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-35078435561637099742011-12-31T00:04:06.747-06:002011-12-31T00:04:06.747-06:00Yes, you should be careful about such claims. I...Yes, you should be careful about such claims. I've supported mine in several ways -- including evidence that no such candidate has come anywhere close to a nomination. And the process that makes it work -- which in fact we've all seen working in the cases of Bachmann, Cain, and Newt. So, yes, you should be careful of that sort of claim, but that doesn't mean that they're all wrong.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-38530589279590406242011-12-30T23:35:25.317-06:002011-12-30T23:35:25.317-06:00Beware anyone who trots out "never happened&q...<i>Beware anyone who trots out "never happened" claims</i><br /><br />You mean a claim like, a candidate with non-traditional credentials and experience winning the nomination has never happened?Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-44643760248214603072011-12-30T18:01:20.967-06:002011-12-30T18:01:20.967-06:00Iowa didn't do much for Huckabee in NH. It di...Iowa didn't do much for Huckabee in NH. It did bring Buchanan a victory in the state... but Perry and Santorum really have no traction there. Perry is tied with Buddy Roemer and Santorum isn't doing much better.<br /><br />Ron Paul, on the other hand, seems to have settled into second place in NH. If Iowa ends up as a Paul v. Romney contest, Paul seems best poised for a Buchanan-type upset there.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90543585618853612042011-12-30T17:11:10.333-06:002011-12-30T17:11:10.333-06:004. "stay relevant to the cable media".
...<b>4. "stay relevant to the cable media".</b><br /><br />I think that's what you're going for, even if I can't phrase it as elegantly as you would manage?<br /><br />Me, I can't see Bachmann moving on from a single-digit, sixth-place finish in her birth state, as the polls appear to be pointing to at this time. Gingrich can keep his book tour rolling at least into March if he wants to, but a fifth-place Iowa finish doesn't leave room for much fundraising upside to wage an upper-tier campaign.<br /><br />If either of them can defy current polling, and remain relevant to the cable news shows (and so in the national discussion), I think that's the dividing line between being nominally part of the actual nomination race, and plowing forward on their boutique "business plan" campaign.JSnoreply@blogger.com