tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post374068203844119551..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Catch of the DayJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-92070708478115894472012-08-25T06:12:49.368-05:002012-08-25T06:12:49.368-05:00Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight
http://fivethirty...Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight <br /><br />http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/<br /><br />Understands how to leverage economic fundamentals into an election forecast better than anyone else I know of. He's posted a lot on what is and what is not predictive, and importantly, he understands error bars and how much statistical noise there is in the historical record.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02167853931127184984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2144429614494456832012-08-24T18:16:28.306-05:002012-08-24T18:16:28.306-05:00This is something I've been saying over and ov...This is something I've been saying over and over again. Forget complicated models and regression--we only have so many examples of an elected incumbent President losing, and does anyone really think that the 2012 we're seeing is comparable to what was going on in 1992, in 1980, or in 1932(!) as far as the "fundamentals" are concerned?<br /><br />Here's H.W. Bush's term:<br /><br />http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chart.png?s=usurtot&d1=19890101&d2=19921130<br /><br />and here's Obama's term:<br /><br />http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chart.png?s=usurtot&d1=20090101&d2=20121130 <br /><br />I know that's just one measure, and it's not like the economy's great--but again, I really don't think it <em>has</em> to be comparable, and the <em>only</em> other explanation is "ha ha, it's really all about campaigning after all!".Xenocrypthttp://xenocrypt.dailykos.comnoreply@blogger.com