tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post4051858064580702219..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Ignore Those Polls!Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-38417919890753462572011-12-16T18:19:11.600-06:002011-12-16T18:19:11.600-06:00All the vowels and the ambiguous vertical stroke i...All the vowels and the ambiguous vertical stroke in Iowa make your hashtag hard to parse. (Is that a capital i or a lowercase L?) Maybe it would have been easier with #iowapollspleaseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-10360056998960894502011-12-16T14:54:15.148-06:002011-12-16T14:54:15.148-06:00Maybe I've missed it in previous posts, but co...Maybe I've missed it in previous posts, but could you explain a bit more about what you mean about spin post Iowa and how that impacts the actual nomination contest? In general you seem to be skeptical of spin and the impacts on voters. How is this different - elite signaling?iagnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-65585859974124374322011-12-16T14:15:23.530-06:002011-12-16T14:15:23.530-06:00I'm not sure I can agree that 'totally ign...I'm not sure I can agree that 'totally ignoring other polls' is right - certainly their predictive value is vastly overstated, but that's much a function of the media which is trying to sell papers/spike ratings points/increase web hits.<br /><br />For one thing, I do think South Carolina polls have a function of ranking the candidates - even after IA and NH shake up the field, I think it's fair to say that Gingrich would have an advantage if he's one of the top tier coming out of the first two contests.<br /><br />If for example, Newt and Ron Paul come out of NH more or less even in the "not Romney" race, you'd have to give the edge to Gingrich based on prior polling of SC and FL show that those states are more favorable for him.<br /><br />Perhaps using Paul is something of an anomaly considering his relatively unique base of support, but it goes to a discussion I've been having: my contention is that IA and NH are set up as two of Ron Paul's best states.<br /><br />While winning both contests would in theory give a candidate a huge push nationally, I don't believe Paul will be able to take advantage, simply because the campaign is then moving to states which are much more unattuned to Paul's message. (As was shown in part last night, when Paul was arguing foreign policy against every other campaign, and the moderators.)<br /><br />Yes, the polls will undergo a major shakeup after Iowa and New Hampshire, but candidates doing well in other states now, figure to retain that advantage if their campaign stays in the top tier after the first contests.JSnoreply@blogger.com