tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post4141419164226626317..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: More Cranky Monday BloggingJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-30465022671226954762012-05-01T11:11:44.849-05:002012-05-01T11:11:44.849-05:00I just have always found the notion that anyone wo...<i>I just have always found the notion that anyone would be persuaded by these ads incredible. ... you'd have to be a total moron to base your vote on one of these ads.</i><br /><br />I don't see how the one follows from the other. Surely you don't doubt the American electorate's capacity to act like morons?Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-91924467155023086192012-05-01T10:56:25.028-05:002012-05-01T10:56:25.028-05:00that's not about using words carefully to chan...<i>that's not about using words carefully to change peoples' minds about an issue and subsequently get them to change vote choice</i><br /><br />True, but you don't need to change people's minds <i>about an issue</i> in order to get them to change their <i>vote</i>.<br /><br />All you need to do is change their perception about what the candidates' positions are. <br /><br />Example: John Q. Senior of Ohio is a Medicare and Social Security recipient. He is terrified that these programs will be discontinued or dramatically cut in the name of deficit reduction. Romney runs an ad saying he's going to "fix" these programs. Mr. Senior likes the sound of that - because it sounds like Romney intends to preserve the programs the way they are now.<br /><br />So the ad was successful - not in changing Mr. Senior's position on preserving Medicare and Social Security, but in creating a perception that Romney is closer to Mr. Senior's position than he in fact is. And it's all due to the creative (and mendacious, to be sure) use of words.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-73403166912622049692012-04-30T22:22:44.765-05:002012-04-30T22:22:44.765-05:00And in fact, ads (and campaigns in general) in low...And in fact, ads (and campaigns in general) in low-information races can make a difference, not only by boosting name recognition but also by informing people about something that they will then like about one candidate or dislike about the other -- which turns out to have a strong effect on House voting (along with, of course, party). But that's not about using words carefully to change peoples' minds about an issue and subsequently get them to change vote choice.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-82880681771758272272012-04-30T18:20:45.447-05:002012-04-30T18:20:45.447-05:00I don't have any particular knowledge of the e...I don't have any particular knowledge of the evidence, if any, for or against the effectiveness of political ads. I just have always found the notion that anyone would be persuaded by these ads incredible. It's not the same as commercial ads, which often can be persuasive, or at the very least make you aware of the product and make it stick in your mind. But nobody needs ads to learn who's running for office, and it seems to me you'd have to be a total moron to base your vote on one of these ads.Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-92075629938146042502012-04-30T17:23:32.602-05:002012-04-30T17:23:32.602-05:00So all their advertising money is wasted? It neve...So all their advertising money is wasted? It never has any effect at all? <br /><br />I have work to do, I'm not going to stop to search for all the advertising industry literature that talks about testing techniques and verifying techniques, I'm pretty sure I found a bunch of it when I was studying advertising 10 years ago when I was contemplating a career change. Where did the focus group come from? an attempt to test advertising techniques. <br /><br />No advertising ever has any effect, am I understanding your position correctly? One of my jobs is at America's largest supermarket chain, a lot of customers come in about every day carrying coupons and looking for advertised sales prices. You don't think there's any evidence that playing creepy music associated with an image produces different emotions than triumphant music? So horror movie producers are all wet too?philosophical-ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04329015177186261224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48295225161348889432012-04-30T17:06:18.432-05:002012-04-30T17:06:18.432-05:00Oh Luntz, the hack that keeps on hacking. I came ...Oh Luntz, the hack that keeps on hacking. I came across a great example of the utter folly of trying to take this sort of focus group/polling politics to its logical extreme. It's a This American Life episode about how after 9/11 the Bush Administration tried to use Madison Avenue advertising strategies to "sell" America to the Muslim world and the total train wreck/hilarity that resulted. It's told by one of the guys who was tasked with trying to create commercials to air in the Muslim world and has a great anecdote about how focus groups can be totally pointless when dealing with complex problems like Foreign Relations or the historical interactions of Christianity, Islam and Judaism. It's the 2nd act:<br /><br />http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/322/shouting-across-the-dividelongwalkdownlyndalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13173899547449318257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-42041939345591664652012-04-30T16:03:16.196-05:002012-04-30T16:03:16.196-05:00Of course, this is probably why Republicans love t...Of course, this is probably why Republicans love term limits and dark money and hate being compared to Republicans in office.<br /><br />I've long since lost count of the number of times I pointed to a vote or position of Republicans in Congress out to a Republican voter who then denied a connection with those views.Crissahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389565751169783614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-83354811857255567862012-04-30T16:00:11.716-05:002012-04-30T16:00:11.716-05:00Since conservative voters tend to be misinformed a...Since conservative voters tend to be misinformed as much as informed - often claiming their candidate has a position 180 from the stated position of the candidate - I don't think I'd put much on polls of conservative voters.Crissahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13389565751169783614noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-72396700109052795242012-04-30T14:40:44.377-05:002012-04-30T14:40:44.377-05:00Tested scientifically? I suppose it's possible...Tested scientifically? I suppose it's possible, but most of what I read about advertising, political and otherwise, suggests that's not true.<br /><br />Anyway: I'm entirely unconvinced that using Luntz's magic words about policy moves any voters at all. If someone has evidence, I'll be glad to look at it, but I think it's all worthless hokum.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-21661098312100959112012-04-30T14:37:03.113-05:002012-04-30T14:37:03.113-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.philosophical-ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04329015177186261224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-88207653752875346552012-04-30T14:36:29.068-05:002012-04-30T14:36:29.068-05:00Which is, perhaps, why they spend millions of doll...Which is, perhaps, why they spend millions of dollars producing and airing commercials which are largely based on using Luntz's polll-selected messaging tips and misleading formulations, combined with a whole host of additional emotion-based messaging tricks (such as music and photo-morphing games), that have long been tested scientifically by advertising companies, as their primary form of campaigning and have completely moved away from calm, rational discussions of policy preferences as a form of campaigning.philosophical-ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04329015177186261224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-62022538017764528032012-04-30T14:25:07.566-05:002012-04-30T14:25:07.566-05:00Certainly "playing with words" won't...Certainly "playing with words" won't change voters' underlying policy preferences. No matter how much the GOP says they want to "fix" Medicare and make Social Security "work" better, voters will be angry if the "fix" just turns out to be massive budget cuts. The voters' initial preference - to maintain entitlement spending - would not be affected at all by the semantic games.<br /><br />But can Luntz's games manipulate voters "into changing who they vote for"? I don't see why not. A voter who hears Romney saying he wants to "fix" Medicare might think that Romney just wants to tweak reimbursement rates, or maybe he even wants to expand the program! And those would be reasonable beliefs, given how nebulous a word like "fix" is.<br /><br />The whole point of Luntz's enterprise, it seems to me, is to fool voters into believing that his candidate-client shares the same values and priorities as they do. That won't work once a pol takes office and actually starts to take action. But it sure might work to get the pol into office in the first place!Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15913245096162048743noreply@blogger.com