tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post449421314130422289..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: What Kind of Crazy Are the GOP?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27821464343267240452013-01-20T18:58:30.677-06:002013-01-20T18:58:30.677-06:00On the Drezner comments about Hagel, I think he un...On the Drezner comments about Hagel, I think he underestimates the level of anger among Likudniks and other conservative, pro-Israeli Jews about Hagel's comments that "the Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up here [on Capitol hill]" and that "I'm an American Senator, not an Israeli Senator." While Romney won only 30% of the Jewish vote last November, according to exit polls, Likudnik Jewish Republicans, foremost among them Sheldon Adelson, are very important parts of the Republican fund-raising establishment, and are furiously opposed to the Hagel nomination. To allow a man who made such comments about AIPAC and Israel to become Secretary of Defense without putting up a fight would seriously alienate this group from the Republican Party. Republicans made a little progress in 2012 in converting some of the strongest supporters of Israel among the Jewish community to vote against Obama, who won Jews by only 69-30% after winning them by 78-22% in 2008, and hope to continue this progress by their campaign against Hagel. So it certainly makes sense to utilize this opening Obama has given Republicans to make further inroads into the Jewish community by strongly opposing Hagel's confirmation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-32461481974815119002013-01-19T08:37:36.731-06:002013-01-19T08:37:36.731-06:00(Cleaned up version with fewer mistakes.)
Yes, th...(Cleaned up version with fewer mistakes.)<br /><br />Yes, the delay is a sign of rationality, but I'm not sure how much that bit of rationality has matured.<br /><br />Let's use a chess analogy: Are they starting to think one move ahead, or two, or more? With the fiscal cliff and the SS tax cut extension last year, the GOP pretty much got to the day of the vote before they realized their strategy wasn't working. So this awareness on the debt ceiling issue an improvement. <br /><br />However, is their new strategy to give Obama 3 months to set out his budget and name cuts? What's their plan if they hate Obama's budget? (Haha, IF they hate Obama's budget.)<br /><br />It's not at all clear that they have a plan for that extremely likely contingency. As I said, I hope they have a new plan that's better and at least one move deeper than the old plan.<br /><br />There's one reason to think that they will have a better plan--they'll look like real idiots if they wasted the entire three months to be back at the same point.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-32020853800905218612013-01-19T08:30:08.612-06:002013-01-19T08:30:08.612-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77826729923061850172013-01-19T07:26:43.206-06:002013-01-19T07:26:43.206-06:00I would add that by pushing the debt ceiling back ...I would add that by pushing the debt ceiling back by three months, they can hold that threat in reserve while they see how the bargaining (or threatening) over the next budget extension goes. That may be how Boehner got the Tea Partyers to agree to drop the debt ceiling issue for now. If so, then it is an example of instrumental rationality.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-24964273700334785362013-01-19T00:59:41.959-06:002013-01-19T00:59:41.959-06:00I'm a little surprised by the misses in the an...I'm a little surprised by the misses in the analysis on the debt ceiling punt. It's a three month delay so the GOP can try to get their act together. They winged it on the fiscal cliff, and that was a disaster for them, so for this confrontation they're going to give themselves a few months prep time. <br /><br />They are going to be damn busy because <b><a href="http://moderatepoli.blogspot.com/2013/01/bad-news-for-spending-cuts-part-2.html" rel="nofollow">their previous plan</a></b> (demand Obama name his cuts) isn't going to work. At least they figured that out. <br /><br />I don't know what their new plan will be, but it probably won't be as lame. Well, maybe it will be. I won't be making any bets on it being noticeably better, but I'll be hoping for it.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-51835550648121438652013-01-18T17:12:20.123-06:002013-01-18T17:12:20.123-06:00Democrats, by and large, take governing seriously....Democrats, by and large, take governing seriously. Republicans, not so much. Ayn Randism has taken so much hold that for many GOP elite types, a (high paying!) gig on Fox may well look like a promotion. So on a personal level, who has any real interest in pushing back against the crazy? The incentives, including money, all support embracing it.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-14830098384982763712013-01-18T16:47:39.602-06:002013-01-18T16:47:39.602-06:00Because she doesn't have that much control.Because she doesn't have that much control.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-74146653204603916552013-01-18T16:36:09.211-06:002013-01-18T16:36:09.211-06:00But it begins to look more complicated once you re...But it begins to look more complicated once you realize that most of the GOP party administrators and politicians have worked hand-in-glove with irresponsible media entertainers to rouse and mold a crazy party base, providing little concerted pushback or course-correction. That's where their lack of instrumental rationality comes in.<br /><br />In contrast, consider how much energy Democratic party actors devote to shaping and educating opinion among left-of-center constituencies toward mainstream and reasonable modes of thinking and assessing possibilities.PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-54795886113236753382013-01-18T16:27:07.728-06:002013-01-18T16:27:07.728-06:00Because she secretly admires Boehner and wishes sh...Because she secretly admires Boehner and wishes she could help him and his caucus save face?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-38745433466161875702013-01-18T15:53:00.577-06:002013-01-18T15:53:00.577-06:00I take Pelosi's talk to be pure bluster.I take Pelosi's talk to be pure bluster.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-56940602780180881762013-01-18T15:18:16.849-06:002013-01-18T15:18:16.849-06:00Okay, but the Democrats have said that they won...Okay, but the Democrats have said that they won't vote for anything but a clean debt limit. So Pelosi will ensure that no Democrats vote for this bill. So if only 12 Republicans opt out, Boehner can't even do this. I'm imagining the rational Republicans thinking to themselves, "And then we do this again in April?" I don't think Boehner will get it done.<br /><br />It would work great if they could get the Democrats to bite. I think that their margin is too thin, and their crazy is to great, to do this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27982329619121270262013-01-18T14:58:03.803-06:002013-01-18T14:58:03.803-06:00Kudos to Chait on that. Hadn't even thought ab...Kudos to Chait on that. Hadn't even thought about it violating our most recent amendment!<br /><br />I suspect the Texas Board of Ed is going to write Jefferson out of the history books entirely! (as this amendment was actually his idea, and was originally part of the Bill of Rights, just one that didn't get passed for 200 years!)<br /><br />Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-61407426530832240672013-01-18T14:50:05.246-06:002013-01-18T14:50:05.246-06:00Well looks like the GOP caved, so I guess they are...Well looks like the GOP caved, so I guess they aren't all that crazy. Also a potential catch of the day to Jonathan Chait for pointing out that one of the GOP's new main qualifiers (not letting members of either body get paid if their isn't a budget agreement) for raising the debt ceiling is blatantly unconstitutional: "Also, the part about making Congress go without pay turns out to violate the Constitution (“No law, varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives, shall take effect, until an election of Representatives shall have intervened”)."<br /><br />http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/01/debt-ceiling-hostage-crisis-over.htmllongwalkdownlyndalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13173899547449318257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-86440072728555378962013-01-18T12:43:33.190-06:002013-01-18T12:43:33.190-06:00if Obama did decide to cave he couldn't even a...<i>if Obama did decide to cave he couldn't even agree to their demands</i><br /><br />I don' think that is quite true: What they are demanding is precisely that Obama specify cuts, so he can take the blame for them.<br /><br />In the bigger picture, I think most of the GOP is dysfunctional rather than outright crazy. After all, for most GOP House members the biggest threat is getting primaried from the right, not losing a general election. <br /><br />So from their perspective, endless losing debt limit battles do no harm, so long as they themselves get to vote on the side of the Lord (i.e., against raising the limit). Even if the GOP's unpopularity rose to the point where the Dems win the House, most individual GOP members would still have their own seats.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-62155678745362845832013-01-18T11:47:05.937-06:002013-01-18T11:47:05.937-06:00I'd also point out that the GOP has yet to eve...I'd also point out that the GOP has yet to even announce what specific cuts they even want in exchange for raising the debt limit. They keep throwing out big numbers but have yet to announce specifically what they want, so if if Obama did decide to cave he couldn't even agree to their demands, because they have yet to formalize what those demands are outsize of vague platitudes about "controlling spending" and the occasional big number. Which is both an example of political dysfunction (we don't even know what we want) and the policy gap that JB talked about at Plumline yesterday.longwalkdownlyndalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13173899547449318257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-19337548315539561002013-01-18T11:43:01.035-06:002013-01-18T11:43:01.035-06:00Seems to me that Drezner is way overreading the th...Seems to me that Drezner is way overreading the three-month proposal. The source he quotes says it's coming from the House leadership, which at the moment has the task of trying to get the House GOP rank and file to agree to lift the debt ceiling. So they're trying to sell strategic defeat on that issue as a mere tactical delay, is my guess. It's not like they have some plan to actually continue provoking a new losing confrontation every three months. In that sense, they're not being crazy. They are, however, dealing with people who (crazily) think that this debt-ceiling thing can still work, and who may be dumb enough to be persuaded that there's a still a big victory waiting for them just around the corner.Jeffnoreply@blogger.com