tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post4997719085524991205..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Means Less Than ZeroJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-57577756445823932972010-07-20T22:41:45.039-05:002010-07-20T22:41:45.039-05:00In 1996 Pat Buchanan was the runner-up, which goes...In 1996 Pat Buchanan was the runner-up, which goes a long way toward explaining the Bush nomination.David Tomlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2195237349467418072010-07-20T18:12:55.245-05:002010-07-20T18:12:55.245-05:00To put it another way . . . there have only been a...<i>To put it another way . . . there have only been a handful of GOP contests without a clear "next in line." 2012 will be one of those.</i><br /><br />I disagree. Romney is next in line. That doesn't mean he will win, but if he doesn't the 'next in line' hypothesis will have been falsified for this cycle.<br /><br /><i>It will be easy after the fact to argue that Palin or Romney (or Jeb Bush) was next in line if one of them wins . . .</i><br /><br />Jeb Bush is clearly a dark horse, and neither Bush nor Palin have run in presidential primaries before.David Tomlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-5051299591664789322010-07-20T13:45:05.442-05:002010-07-20T13:45:05.442-05:00Kylopod,
Yes and no. When there's a consensu...Kylopod,<br /><br />Yes and no. When there's a consensus candidate among party leaders (interpreted broadly), that candidate is going to get nominated. That's been true for the GOP a whole lot of times. But it's not quite as simple to figure out the decision rule for who will be the consensus candidate, and so it isn't "predictable" in that sense. <br /><br />To put it another way...there have only been a handful of GOP contests without a clear "next in line." 2012 will be one of those. It will be easy after the fact to argue that Palin or Romney (or Jeb Bush) was next in line if one of them wins, but that doesn't help us know now what is going to happen. And there haven't really been enough of these types of years to make it clear what will happen.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-74682402120875434492010-07-20T12:55:03.925-05:002010-07-20T12:55:03.925-05:00But isn't it true that past GOP presidential c...But isn't it true that past GOP presidential contests in modern times have usually been more or less predictable? Often the one nominated is someone who had been the front-runner for a long time. This is even true of McCain in '08, whose campaign appeared to collapse at one point. Furthermore, the GOP usually nominates someone who has run for president before. If I'm not mistaken, this has been true in every race in the past 50 years except Nixon in 1960, who was the incumbent vp; Ford in '76, who was the incumbent president; and George W. Bush, the son of a former president. In other words, the GOP usually chooses an establishment favorite who has waited their "turn," and it does seem like it would be Romney's turn in '12.Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-72787927456948689822010-07-20T09:15:42.845-05:002010-07-20T09:15:42.845-05:00I remember during the 2004 campaign saying to a fr...I remember during the 2004 campaign saying to a friend of mine that I couldn't wait to see the day when the next Presidential cycle began before the current was even over (i.e.- the 2016 race beginning before the 2012 general election). My friend then pointed to Romney and McCain appearing on stage with Bush and saying it's already happened.Colbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14262426400735202537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77959089101950239462010-07-20T02:15:22.056-05:002010-07-20T02:15:22.056-05:00I would say Palin is the joint creation of the con...I would say Palin is the joint creation of the conservative grass roots and the <i>Weekly Standard</i>. There was already a buzz about Palin before McCain chose her, which I would guess was a big part of the reason for the choice. Of course the VP campaign gave her a big boost, but without it I think she would still have come to national prominence eventually.David Tomlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-29346641921750130472010-07-19T21:24:02.000-05:002010-07-19T21:24:02.000-05:00I don't think Palin is media-created; she'...I don't think Palin is media-created; she's McCain created, and has been interested in and very good at using the media once she got created. <br /><br />The other thing that I can say is...well, whatever created her, she sure brings traffic.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-6297826978377739342010-07-19T19:38:30.325-05:002010-07-19T19:38:30.325-05:00Thanks for this. Honestly, our media has been hash...Thanks for this. Honestly, our media has been hashing out the next presidential election since Nov. 5 2008. I find it really, really irksome. I realize our media are political junkies, and I'm a political junkie too but for crying out loud that doesn't mean I want to hash out one election after another, ad nauseum. I'm interested in policy issues and other things that don't have that horse-race element.<br /><br />Sarah Palin is a wholly media-created phenomenon. That she has any political aspirations at all is a testament to the utter failure of our national news media, who have consistently misread the tea leaves and the mood of the country in their craven search for a "star." Palin is photogenic, and that's about it. Yet every Tweet and Facebook post is pounced upon by our media as if it were serious policy discussion.<br /><br />I don't care about Sarah Palin. I refuse to get wrapped up in some manufactured outrage over her latest Tweet. It's all so phony, so obviously orchestrated, the modern-day version of bread and circuses. Sarah Palin is America's Vuvuzela and frankly I don't have time for the BS.Litzz11@yahoo.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08843479112124843471noreply@blogger.com