tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5013611409206266050..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Huck Out -- Who Remains?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-12625257984087950702011-05-15T23:55:37.927-05:002011-05-15T23:55:37.927-05:00what happened to huntsman?what happened to huntsman?Rivkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00015253679438259818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77816336798981446402011-05-15T23:16:49.094-05:002011-05-15T23:16:49.094-05:00I won't say home state connections are meaning...I won't say home state connections are meaningless. Bush probably got a couple of votes from that "Dukakis, Lt. Governor" line. ButI doubt it's much, especially if the target is a capable pol. I'm pretty sure everyone DOES I.D. Bush as a Texan, but that probably doesn't tell us much about Perry. People know how to tell state mates apart. If Oerry is very similar to Bush and connected to him, that doesn't help, nut that's more about Perry than Texas.Colbyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14262426400735202537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-43803779496789036142011-05-15T20:55:37.572-05:002011-05-15T20:55:37.572-05:00I think being from Texas will have significance in...I think being from Texas will have significance in a way that CA wouldn't. Remember their old travel ads; "it's like a whole 'nother country." Texas and Texans are associated together in a way that other states/residents aren't. I think Perry would definitely suffer as a Texan so soon after Bush, especially because of how similar they seem as Couves said.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-19042909498235397032011-05-15T19:42:56.255-05:002011-05-15T19:42:56.255-05:00Jonathan,
Watching Perry’s CPAC speech, he remind...Jonathan,<br /><br />Watching Perry’s CPAC speech, he reminded me of GW so much that it was almost distracting. Maybe I’m making too much of this and maybe it wouldn’t matter to primary voters anyway, but I’m sure the comparisons would be made.<br /><br />CTH -- If popularity in one’s home state directly translated into the GOP Presidential primary, then Gary Johnson would be leading with Mitt Romney bringing up the rear.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-63855155290911750842011-05-15T13:38:35.950-05:002011-05-15T13:38:35.950-05:00Pareene seems poorly informed on the subject. Bibl...Pareene seems poorly informed on the subject. Biblical literalism is not the only basis for religious objections to Darwinism. That human intelligence is the result of a material process requiring neither guiding intelligence nor supernatural power is problematic for Thomist theology. Catholic intellectuals and scientists have been significant contributors to the 'intelligent design' movement.David Tomlinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-50387074225150485312011-05-15T13:24:52.393-05:002011-05-15T13:24:52.393-05:00Being a Californian after Nixon didn't hurt Ro...Being a Californian after Nixon didn't hurt Ronald Reagan.Richard Skinnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-68292505512584348552011-05-15T13:16:07.782-05:002011-05-15T13:16:07.782-05:00FWIW,
I don't really understand the idea that...FWIW,<br /><br />I don't really understand the idea that being a Texan after Bush would be a negative for Perry. I don't think people work that way; if Perry had run (or still winds up running), he would be Rick Perry, not some Texan -- and I don't think people really associate Bush with Texas all that strongly. I'm not sure that political science has much to say about it one way or another, but I just don't see it.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-92155544523343951122011-05-15T13:07:54.554-05:002011-05-15T13:07:54.554-05:00I'd guess Tim Pawlenty's happy about Hucka...I'd guess Tim Pawlenty's happy about Huckabee's decision. It increases the likelihood that the "social conservative" bloc in Iowa will split several ways (including some to Pawlenty), as opposed to uniting around Huckabee.<br /><br />I'd say Pawlenty and Romney currently have the clearest path forward through the first four states, though there's lots of time for things to change.massappealhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17883213166005005577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-57141321911275724622011-05-15T12:44:44.411-05:002011-05-15T12:44:44.411-05:00I think Christie's cratering approval rating (...I think Christie's cratering approval rating (38% in the latest SurveyUSA poll) means his not taking a longshot run for the nomination. It seems to me this is gonna come down to Pawlenty, Romney and maybe Daniels. Palin doesn't look to be running and couldn't win it if she was. Bush would have a lock on the nomination if his last name was Smith. Perry makes some sense but there is not indication that he is running.<br /><br />If it's Pawlenty & Romney, everything I know about the GOP's nomination history leads me to Romney but he seems so damaged at this point. The brutal Wall Street Journal editorial the other day was startling. If Romney has lost the Journal, who does he have anymore? I guess that leaves me with Pawlenty who seems to d**n boring to win but then again, the Democrats did nominate Dukakis once upon a time. Pawlenty has to win Iowa though. Only way he can do this and his odds went up after Huckabee dropped out.CTHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10928983745917493342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-57029809524043369342011-05-15T10:35:36.029-05:002011-05-15T10:35:36.029-05:00I saw Christy give an AEI speech on cspan recently...I saw Christy give an AEI speech on cspan recently. I was impressed -- he spoke to our fiscal problems in a way that came across as intelligent, conversational and post-partisan. He’d be a good conduit for voter anger and he’s far more personable than either Romney or Obama -- good qualities for a candidate in our economic times.<br /><br />The name of the game is beating Obama and I think a strong Christy entry into the race would cause a lot of people to quickly drop Romney. Yes, Bush and Perry look good on paper. But the idea of running another Bush or Texan so soon after the last one would have an “Are you kidding me?” quality that even party elites can’t miss.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20291449463619537732011-05-15T10:02:34.609-05:002011-05-15T10:02:34.609-05:00Everything that has happened since Obama's ele...Everything that has happened since Obama's election points to the GOP nominating a Goldwater or Reagan as their 2012 candidate. I have a hard time seeing how any bland blue state governor (especially the one who is a Mormon who passed universal health care with an individual mandate) can win. I guess that means Gingrich or Palin (if she decides to run) would be the ones I see as most likely to win the nomination.Ron E.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-49594823602073330832011-05-14T23:10:51.060-05:002011-05-14T23:10:51.060-05:00Interesting that both Huckabee and Palin seem to b...Interesting that both Huckabee and Palin seem to be deciding that they would rather be conservative celebrities than actual presidential candidates. A failed run might hurt their earning potential -- I wonder what Rudy Giuliani's speaking fees are like these days. <br /><br />Republicans seem to be able to earn more in the lecture-circuit / book-publishing / talk-radio / cable-news sphere. Can anyone think of a prominent Democrat who has followed a similar course? I wouldn't put Al Gore in the same category, since he seems to act more like an ex-president than a prospective one. Maybe Howard Dean?<br /><br />This also bring our attention to a longstanding issues facing career politicians without personal wealth. Public office doesn't pay well, at least by the standards of those with whom officeholders often associate.Richard Skinnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-58406867491525518702011-05-14T23:05:34.893-05:002011-05-14T23:05:34.893-05:00Alex Pareene interprets Christie's recent refu...Alex Pareene interprets Christie's recent refusal to say whether or not he <a href="http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/05/13/signs_republican_candidate/index.html" rel="nofollow">believes in evolution</a> as a possible sign he might be preparing to enter the race. The reason? Because that's not the sort of thing a well-educated New Jersey politician from either party would say, but it is the type of thing a Republican presidential candidate would say. Or so Pareene thinks. I dunno. Any thoughts?Kylopodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06932528611103718373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90237338816228927772011-05-14T22:30:43.200-05:002011-05-14T22:30:43.200-05:00Couves,
Perhaps; and perhaps he winds up a lot mo...Couves,<br /><br />Perhaps; and perhaps he winds up a lot more appealing in the abstract than in fact. We don't know how good he'd be at fundraising, or at winning elite support; we don't know how he'd do on national issues, and on the national stage. Given that he was going to be a late starter at any point (Pawlenty and Romney have both been running since before Christie was elected), I think it's a lot easier to overestimate his chances.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48404511011227123292011-05-14T21:51:27.876-05:002011-05-14T21:51:27.876-05:00Christie has left little doubt that he's not r...Christie has left little doubt that he's not running, but I think he'd be a formidable candidate if he got in. Tea party/fiscal conservatives love him and he's moderate enough to draw strong support from independents.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-81213245574476510732011-05-14T21:22:43.156-05:002011-05-14T21:22:43.156-05:00How do you run a campaign with no Tea Party suppor...How do you run a campaign with no Tea Party support in this political climate? All I see is a bunch of boring mainstream Republicans with no grassroots appeal, with the exception of Palin (who has been flailing lately). Surely this presents opportunities for the likes of Gingrich, Bachmann, and even Trump. I can't believe Republicans are going to act like Democrats in 2004 and pick the boring sensible establishment figure--not without a fight first.wkdeweyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10868091938156254671noreply@blogger.com