tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5228216379528094382..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: House Budget Follies Very Unlikely To Yield Shutdown CrisisJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-40469700631052746412012-03-14T18:32:14.742-05:002012-03-14T18:32:14.742-05:00I think you need to decide once and for all if Rom...I think you need to decide once and for all if Romney has a problem with his base in the general election or not. You say here, jokingly, that the GOP base will learn to love Romney, and then you jest about it and say well, not "love" but close enough. So which is it -- will they learn to love their nominee, as in most past elections, or not? Just talking to my politically alert friends, I find that this theme comes up a lot, that "ohh, they'll rally around him." But the differences at the margin will matter a lot here! Of course many Republicans will learn to hold their nose or even become downright enthusiastic about Romney -- but if it's 80% of the potentially die-hard voters rather than the usual 90% (assuming you never actually get 100% of any given group to vote), then that's 2 points in the electoral percentages, and suddenly Romney doesn't have a chance at all.<br /><br />Among liberal bloggers, you're probably the most warily bullish on Romney as a candidate in the general election of anyone I can think of. I grant that the poli-sci thinking you're throwing at the problem has a lot of validity to it, and I do appreciate the bracing reminders, but I still think you're playing footsie a bit. <br /><br />You said a week or two ago that Romney was likely to be an "adequate" nominee in the general election. I myself think that Romney is a poorer campaigner than you've credited him for. To a certain degree, poli-sci as a discipline seems to assume that all candidates are ipso facto adequate, because we all know that the economy and other external factors are what really drive election results yada yada. I'm simplifying here to make the point. <br /><br />So my questions to you are: what candidates since 1972 have actually been inadequate -- in other words, what's the bar that you're expecting Romney to clear here? Better or worse than Kerry, Dukakis, GHWB in '92, Dole, McCain, what? I'd be curious.<br /><br />And the other question is, is there anything in these primary results lately that (a) is authentically worrisome for Romney, and (b) is somewhat unprecedented for an eventual nominee? All I've heard from you so far on this subject is that Romney will be the nominee and that the general election is a tossup. In my humble opinion, what we've seen so far may be a bit more historically unusual than that, and a touch more hopeful for Obama. And if I've misrepresented you on anything here, I do apologize.Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18440356770947146690noreply@blogger.com