tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5256665950710383563..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Q Day 2: Veepstakes!Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-14038726570265812922012-07-27T14:19:56.645-05:002012-07-27T14:19:56.645-05:00The "point or two in the VPs homestate" ...The "point or two in the VPs homestate" finding is often thrown in there to minimize the vote-getting aspect of the pick. But a point or two in a key swing state could actually be really important! A point or two in Florida or Ohio could shift a candidate's chance of winning that state by 10 or 20 percent - some back of the envelope math from Nate Silver's website suggests that that could be as much as a 2-3% increase in a candidate's chance of winning the Presidency. <br /><br />2-3% isn't much, but it's far bigger than the effect of most campaign activities.<br /><br />I think you could argue that Edwards was a win-his-home-state pick; at least I remember it being portrayed that was at the time. Not successful, obviously, but that may have been part of the intention at least.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-13923173283742679152012-07-27T12:59:25.599-05:002012-07-27T12:59:25.599-05:00Ah, excellent. Did you watch Franken on the Senate...Ah, excellent. Did you watch Franken on the Senate floor yet? I only saw the second half so far, but enjoyed it, and I'm not the world's biggest Al Franken fan.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-110132717281146672012-07-27T12:57:33.954-05:002012-07-27T12:57:33.954-05:00I read Davis' memoir a couple of years ago, so...I read Davis' memoir a couple of years ago, so I might have something to say....TNhttp://www.debris-slide.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-63505591345473863252012-07-27T11:50:11.253-05:002012-07-27T11:50:11.253-05:00Yup. The knock against Quayle on experience was to...Yup. The knock against Quayle on experience was totally a bum rap. <br /><br />OTOH, I'd probably be a lot better on this and other topics if someone had written the appreciation of Tom Davis that I've been expecting. Also the appreciation of the Al Franken tribute to Davis. <br /><br />Not that anyone should write anything they don't want to write, of course. Just saying.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-82744583958402906322012-07-27T11:26:55.442-05:002012-07-27T11:26:55.442-05:00Agnew and Palin had both been governors for just t...Agnew and Palin had both been governors for just two years, which is kind of astonishing. Edwards and Ferraro had both been in Congress for about five years when they were picked as VP. Dan Quayle, although still seeming like a callow youth, had been in Congress for 12 years; he was elected to the House at the age of 29.TNhttp://www.debris-slide.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90376995466922704592012-07-27T10:58:56.312-05:002012-07-27T10:58:56.312-05:00One candidate that you overlooked was Reagan. He p...One candidate that you overlooked was Reagan. He picked Bush, a rival candidate, but otherwise Bush's career is difficult to summarize in single word. I guess you could say he was a loyal party guy.<br /><br />In a reflection of today's "issues," I think one of Rockefeller's problems was that the base was suspicious of a rich guy.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.com