tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5402970248046412145..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Friday Baseball PostJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-4721868366916767982013-10-26T10:26:17.823-05:002013-10-26T10:26:17.823-05:00I can see the case that they have a lot of slots t...I can see the case that they have a lot of slots to fill, but it's hard for me to imagine that this is anywhere close to the market rate for Lincecum.<br /><br />It's the hometeam anti-discount. The Giants had to overpay, because if they just gave him a qualifying offer, he probably wouldn't be back, even if he couldn't find a better deal elsewhere (see Lohse and the Cards last year).Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03293070603428186814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-62818906673137663512013-10-25T22:35:28.444-05:002013-10-25T22:35:28.444-05:00Perhaps. But Colon was 40 in 2013, and his GS (goi...Perhaps. But Colon was 40 in 2013, and his GS (going backwards) have been 30, 24, 26, 0, 12, 7...the odds that he starts 60 games (let alone 66) in 2014-2015 have to be about zilch, and the odds that he can take the ball 50 times aren't very good. <br /><br />Kazmir is youngish, but he's only reached 30 starts twice in his career, the last time in his 23 year old season. And he wasn't actually all that much better than the Freak this year.<br /><br />Granted, we don't know what either will go for. But we also don't know if either would want to be in San Francisco. <br /><br />And, at any rate, the Giants still have two open rotation spots; if Colon or Kazmir or even both is willing to come to China Basin for not much, Sabean could still do that. Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-66246584544743555182013-10-25T21:27:02.713-05:002013-10-25T21:27:02.713-05:00IMO there are at least twelve better free agent pi...IMO there are at least twelve better free agent pitchers. But I don't know what the demand will be. Maybe the Giants know what they are doing, but if pitchers like Colon and Kazmir go fo significantly less they will look bad.Morgan Conradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08488994506896975339noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48266660662617556662013-10-25T21:02:35.176-05:002013-10-25T21:02:35.176-05:00I dunno, I was originally in the camp that thought...I dunno, I was originally in the camp that thought 2012 was flukey and he'd mostly bounce back to being an above average pitcher. But his velocity is down for two years in a row now, with this year's barely staying above 90. For a pitcher with a pedestrian BB/9, losing your velocity will pretty quickly render you replacement level. He is going to 30 in June, so I don't see him turning his velocity issues around. Maybe he can morph into more of a finesse pitcher the way kenny rogers did in the latter half of his career. But Im bearish.<br /><br />That being said, it's a pretty low risk deal for an organization like the Giants. Drewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-56528126882428177462013-10-25T20:11:52.110-05:002013-10-25T20:11:52.110-05:00Its interesting, I was looking at Lincecum's s...Its interesting, I was looking at Lincecum's stats in the link above, and I was trying to determine who would be a good comp for a pitcher who was Cy Young quality, high-100s for ERA+ in his early 20s, and dropped back to double digits as he turned the corner to age 30?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zitoba01.shtml" rel="nofollow">Barry Zito</a>. Which example doesn't bode terribly well for Lincecum. Wondering, though, whether a Nate Silver type has looked at this systematically - early 20s CYA quality, drops back by age 30 - is Zito the norm or the exception?CSHnoreply@blogger.com