tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post572884662566292648..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Catch of the DayJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-64056465370368521332013-11-19T16:06:09.272-06:002013-11-19T16:06:09.272-06:00To pile on to my point, these speeches in Iowa or ...To pile on to my point, these speeches in Iowa or whatever aren't aimed at the audience they're in front of: they're aimed at the county party chairs and donors who may or may not be in that room, but are likely to hear how well the speech was received by people who opinions matter to them (either directly or because they are representative of people who do)Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75703937160351625322013-11-19T15:37:32.363-06:002013-11-19T15:37:32.363-06:00It's a fair question, Anon.
So, we know that ...It's a fair question, Anon.<br /><br />So, we know that people are end up winning the nomination tend to run essentially the whole time. Look at Romney: I would argue that his concession speech in 2008 was his first effort at 2012. Hillary resigning as Sec State could be credibly argued as her getting ready for 2016 (if only to recharge her batteries first). Now, running and preparing to run may be different things in reality, but the problem is that we only perceive these things, and their behaviors can look similar. <br /><br />When is "too late?" I don't know, but if I'm one of these folks, am I going to test that question? No. I would know that voters aren't really at all relevant either. No, to make it to the voters I have to survive the invisible primary first. I'll need the donors, the party chairs (if only to convince donors I'm legit) and the staff (if only to convince donors, party chairs & media I'm legit) lined up in advance. Even if I'm not going to need them to do anything until 2015, I need to get them in my corner before the other guy does.<br /><br />What made the war inevitable was the growth in Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta. It's not that the candidates WANT to run in 2013. It's that, well, the OTHER guys (or gals!) are going to start doing that early, so I'd better too. If those other guys are crackpots, I can keep my efforts quiet and low-key. If they're legitimate competition, I need to start lining up staff now. Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-38372677957139280802013-11-19T14:19:02.675-06:002013-11-19T14:19:02.675-06:00It's a long time before the caucus voters have...It's a long time before the caucus voters have to make up their minds, but if you wait too long to test the waters, you may find that the donors and candidates are already paired up, the experienced field managers already hired, private endorsements already made, and so on.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-58343348021079498172013-11-19T14:11:56.629-06:002013-11-19T14:11:56.629-06:00I'm considering announcing my decision not to ...I'm considering announcing my decision not to run for president, but only if I can figure out a way to get something else out of it. I'm sure there must be someone out there willing to pay to keep me out of the race.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-36196963585171920922013-11-19T12:49:49.892-06:002013-11-19T12:49:49.892-06:00But what is Warren, or Clinton, doing now that cou...But what is Warren, or Clinton, doing now that could possibly make a difference by Iowa caucus time? I can't help but think that whatever "campaigning" they're doing now is as irrelevant, as the media hype du jour over Obama is to anyone's vote in 2016. Even from the perspective of party activists it's too early to be making meaningful decisions, even they might not know who they want until primaries actually start. There is some winnowing of the Republican field in 2011, but in 2009? What happened in 2005 that was relevant to the Obama vs Clinton race that would actually shape up in 2008? What difference do a few early visits to Iowa and New Hampshire matter this early in the game?<br /><br />To put it another way, if a sufficiently credible candidate were to ignore the early part of the process and jump in at the 2-year mark, what is there to stop them? Some people are likely to attract presidential speculation under any scenario (HIllary), but that in itself surely can't constitute "running", since such a candidate has to do ..nothing at all. This year has been marked by something of a Hillary bandwagon (including some fierce critics of Obama; I do not place myself in that camp but would prefer a contested primary). But events could make that absolutely irrelevant even by this time next year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-20197329216048340162013-11-19T12:26:07.458-06:002013-11-19T12:26:07.458-06:00oh!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3FnpaWQJO0oh!<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3FnpaWQJO0andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-70112852314332169752013-11-19T12:18:52.884-06:002013-11-19T12:18:52.884-06:00Yep. I was agreeing with you.Yep. I was agreeing with you.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-45436530940066390372013-11-19T12:12:34.580-06:002013-11-19T12:12:34.580-06:00Of course, and all I'm saying is that, contra ...Of course, and all I'm saying is that, contra Scheiber, Warren *can* know right now that she is really and truly not running. Despite the strategic considerations of running. In fact, it's Scheiber and the rest of us who can't possibly know if Warren is really and truly running. Or what value she places on any of the strategic considerations we like to ponder. That's why we speculate.andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-25708817310612649252013-11-19T11:37:39.225-06:002013-11-19T11:37:39.225-06:00+1
The problem is, of course, that it is really t...+1<br /><br />The problem is, of course, that it is really tough to separate those who doth protest too much from those who protest the right amount. However, that does not mean that all those who deny running are running. <br /><br />Look, it we can credibly claim that there are people who run for president to get other things (like Fox shows or higher speaker fees or whatever), then we have to admit that we can have a mixture of types in the pool of deniers, too.<br /><br />Some people say they are running for president; of that group, we can say that some actually are while some are just trying to get something else out of it. Some people say they are not running for president; of that group, we can say that some are actually running for president but playing the coy game while others are really and truly not running for president.<br /><br />I will state here that I am not actively seeking the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. How many of you believe me? (I hope everyone, as I'd be terrible at it)Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27488481838182114452013-11-19T11:00:32.112-06:002013-11-19T11:00:32.112-06:00yes she can know, herself. because she *knows* her...yes she can know, herself. because she *knows* herself. if she has determined that she does not want to be president (or vp), or if she has determined that she does not yet have the experience necessary, then she knows, now, that she's not running. and her denials here to local reporters just last week have been unequivocal, and pointedly (but gently) pissed off. not noncommittal, not coy, not open to interpretation.andrew longnoreply@blogger.com