tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post5799583487532710245..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Q Day 4: Ron Paul, 3rd Party Candidate?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37728744376209029122011-12-30T23:40:04.877-06:002011-12-30T23:40:04.877-06:00According to the Washington Post last week, Paul i...According to the Washington Post last week, Paul is presently polling 21% as a third party candidate where the major party nominees are Obama and Romney. The Republicans cannot win without Paul, which is what scares the crap out of the party machine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-82181967193120240362011-12-22T01:22:58.566-06:002011-12-22T01:22:58.566-06:00Even if Paul polls at just 5% through the spring a...Even if Paul polls at just 5% through the spring and summer, that's going to depress the GOP nominee's numbers almost exclusively. So it's going to be something like this (the Gallup Poll 2008 undecideds averaged 8% from March to Nov.):<br /><br />Obama 46%<br />Romney 41% <br />Paul 5%<br />Undecided 8%<br /><br />or<br />Obama 48%<br />Perry 40% <br />Paul 5%<br />Undecided 7%<br /><br />Those kinds of numbers are not going to appear close, especially if they are fairly steady. The conventions may provide a chance for a change of dynamic, as will the debates. But I doubt Paul's core fanatics are going to vote for anyone else.andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-40120741512622603362011-12-21T20:03:35.137-06:002011-12-21T20:03:35.137-06:00"If the election appeared close, Republicans,..."If the election appeared close, Republicans, even the most libertarian-leaning of them, would drift back to Mitt Romney or whoever the nominee was."<br /><br />I keep thinking of Ralph Nader in 2000. If he hadn't been on the ballot in Florida and, say, half of his supporters got mad that he wasn't there and stayed home but the other half voted for Gore, Bush would never have been president.<br /><br />Roy Perkins,<br /><br />True, but if Obama wins, then Paul will be finishing a term at a time when there's no incumbent president running.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-77356121510815825842011-12-21T18:38:28.263-06:002011-12-21T18:38:28.263-06:00"If Obama wins reelection, then in 2016 Rand ..."If Obama wins reelection, then in 2016 Rand Paul would have been a senator for a whole term." <br /><br />Paul will have been a senator for a whole term by 2016 regardless of who wins the Presidency next year.Roy Perkins, impartial dogcatchernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-15365238349505787072011-12-21T17:42:37.369-06:002011-12-21T17:42:37.369-06:00The Paul camp has already made significant headway...The Paul camp has already made significant headway towards his goal of establishing a libertarian movement within the GOP. The youth energy is clearly on his side (tomorrow's Congressmen) and he even has a toehold in the Republican establishment in some places (5 of 17 on the Iowa state committee are Paul supporters). It's still possible that GOP insiders could provoke him to go third party (and he's clearly holding that over their heads), but I think it's unlikely. It's probably telling that Romney and Paul have had a mutually respectful relationship so far.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-31075957491324612902011-12-21T16:26:06.314-06:002011-12-21T16:26:06.314-06:00There is one other, rather obvious rational for tr...There is one other, rather obvious rational for trying to figure out if Paul will jump from the GOP ship, he has a son who clearly wants to be president. The likelihood that if Ron Paul jumps ship would help or hurt Rand Paul in the near future might matter a lot. If Obama wins reelection, than in 2016 Rand Paul would have been a senator for a whole term. He is obviously a more mainstream candidate than his father, with a less sordid history. It is hard not to imagine him using the fund raising system created by his father, with a much higher ceiling. <br />I'm not sure if this matters, but it might be enough to keep Ron Paul from a quixotic third party race (as much as I might hope to see it).Scuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17156611887819008603noreply@blogger.com