tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post6045488789626888735..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: What Mattered This Week?Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-21176745008182257752012-07-16T12:23:30.881-05:002012-07-16T12:23:30.881-05:00Check out "The Gloves are Off" at glover...Check out "The Gloves are Off" at gloverman.blogspot.com, great stuff on the Libor scandle and "Tax Case of the Week"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-15831266689736596682012-07-15T17:46:02.702-05:002012-07-15T17:46:02.702-05:00(Sorry, some server screw-up.)(Sorry, some server screw-up.)Xenocrypthttp://xenocrypt.dailykos.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-69297860499510141522012-07-15T17:42:23.223-05:002012-07-15T17:42:23.223-05:00So if Obama is leading now, then why does he "...So if Obama is leading now, then why does he "need" to sway additional shares of the electorate? Presumably, you think his lead might not last--but what if it degrades by more than these attacks help him? <br /><br />All I'm saying is, again, we should at least think about the potential magnitude of effects.Xenocrypthttp://xenocrypt.dailykos.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-21576456675633399952012-07-15T17:39:29.072-05:002012-07-15T17:39:29.072-05:00If he's leading, then why does he need to sway...If he's leading, then why does he need to sway additional shares of the electorate?Xenocrypthttp://xenocrypt.dailykos.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-21491184405436417232012-07-15T17:07:46.292-05:002012-07-15T17:07:46.292-05:00No, I think the idea is that Obama is leading righ...No, I think the idea is that Obama is leading right now, but just barely. There has been a great debate this election cycle about wether personality matters, and I personally think it does. The American public isn't going to vote for someone they don't trust or don't like. That is the basis of Obama's attacks. They are trying to build the framework to be "the better of two evils". <br /><br />In an election that is promising to be as close as 2012, every voter (in the swing states) counts.Battleground270http://battleground270.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-18042632495176599222012-07-15T16:51:03.381-05:002012-07-15T16:51:03.381-05:00What if the attack sways a share of the electorate...What if the attack sways a share of the electorate, but it's smaller than what Obama needs to win? Is the idea that the election, right now, is such a 50-50 tossup, that any campaign strategy by Obama that persuades anybody anywhere is necessarily going to lead to his victory?Xenocrypthttp://xenocrypt.dailykos.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-40741551329401867712012-07-15T15:17:50.235-05:002012-07-15T15:17:50.235-05:00I disagree that the events that happened this week...I disagree that the events that happened this week were inconsequential in the overall race. Sure, more voters are going to be voting based on the economy in November than on personal qualities, but they won't vote for someone they don't trust. <br /><br />The Obama campaign is very cleverly painting Romney as not just a flip-flopper, a 1%er, or a vulture capitalist; they are succeeding in portraying him as a liar. They are making the case that he has something to hide. By not releasing his taxes, Romney is opening himself up to those types of attacks all the way until November, and those attacks will sway at least a share of the electorate, and that's all President Obama really needs.Battleground270http://battleground270.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-2865455306036032032012-07-15T13:18:33.827-05:002012-07-15T13:18:33.827-05:00I tend to divide the Bain business into two aspect...I tend to divide the Bain business into two aspects: the substantive and the political. On the substantive side, I think the jury is still out but I suspect it won't develop into much. The one big point still hanging out there is the charge made by an Obama staffer that Romney signing those documents as president, CEO, and sole shareholder constituted a felony if it wasn't true. Now, of course, broadcast news being what it is, every radio and TV discussion I've heard on the subject (which, granted, hasn't been many) referred that question to a journalist or a campaign surrogate from one side or the other. Is there no expert in the law available for comment on these things? I'd like to hear a comment that does not begin with "Well, I'm no expert, but . . ."<br /><br />On the political side, I think the Bain business feeds the growing image (growing for me, at least) that on the few occasions that Romney says something specific, it isn't true.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-88624546847815560252012-07-15T13:11:06.820-05:002012-07-15T13:11:06.820-05:00The outsourcing/Bain theme may matter. Candidates ...The outsourcing/Bain theme may matter. Candidates over-perform and under-perform relative to a model's expectations. If the basic models say that Obama will win, the next question is whether the margin of an Obama victory matters. Can there be isolated or general coattails, or impacts on subsequent legislative activities? The outsourcing/Bain theme could play in both areas if voters appear to prefer one side of a debate between "company outsourcing for cheap labor benefits you" versus "company outsourcing for cheap labor impoverishes you."PJRnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-31894930612181089852012-07-15T13:02:56.704-05:002012-07-15T13:02:56.704-05:00cgw - Calling for the blacklisting of all Ron Paul...cgw - Calling for the blacklisting of all Ron Paul supporters is of trivial importance? Call me crazy, but I thought that liberal Democrats were a little more liberal and a little more democratic than that.Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-57613269478854099312012-07-15T12:29:23.569-05:002012-07-15T12:29:23.569-05:00I think if voters on the fence start to have decid...I think if voters on the fence start to have decidedly negative feelings about Romney's time as a businessman, the Romney Campaign either a)risks further alienating those groups; or b) tries to find some other way to sell their candidate. Inherent in option "b" is a late campaign image makeover, which is something that would make Romney look desperate and would pull him off message. That's why it matters.PA Politiconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-23083605284074274912012-07-15T11:00:47.893-05:002012-07-15T11:00:47.893-05:00I think there's a distinction to be made, thou...I think there's a distinction to be made, though, between "a good line of attack" and "an attack that matters."<br /><br />I was thinking about this yesterday, when people were praising/commenting on the new anti-Romney ad which talks about outsourcing, and tax shelters while Romney sings "America the Beautiful." People were calling it ruthless, a great ad, etc, and I was feeling doubtful.<br /><br />It's not that it's a bad ad-- indeed, as a liberal I basically agree with it, at least in a fair-game political spin kind of way. It's reasonably tough and I could see how it might damage the perception of Romney in the minds of a few swing voters. But is it really going to PERSUADE anyone? I have a hard time imagining anyone saying, "I was going to vote for that Romney guy, but now that I know he keeps money in the Caymans, no dice!"<br /><br />So I think it's perfectly possible for the Bain stuff to be a good tack for Obama to take against Romney-- even effective in the sense of working about as well as anything else would-- while still not really moving the dials overall. Whether that means it "matters" is largely a function of how you define the term.Robert John Burkehttp://www.burkestories.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-35609951177051413312012-07-15T10:37:18.552-05:002012-07-15T10:37:18.552-05:00Yeah, remember "the private sector is doing f...Yeah, remember "the private sector is doing fine" or "I like being able to fire people"? How many voters remember either of those things except partisans who like knowing all thw jokes theyes can make about the other candidates?Xenocrypthttp://xenocrypt.dailykos.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-81390259783625768452012-07-15T10:17:47.098-05:002012-07-15T10:17:47.098-05:00I don't know if Bain works more than a few wee...I don't know if Bain works more than a few weeks (or days), because inevitably the media is going to turn to something else in election news and in any case the vast majority of voters aren't paying attention yet (and prob won't till after summer). Why would Obama engage in the attacks if they might not matter? Because they keep the election focused on whether or not Romney is a liar instead of some other issue that might not play as well for Obama.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-42436423223773499962012-07-15T09:29:06.598-05:002012-07-15T09:29:06.598-05:00What makes this story more than trivial in importa...What makes this story more than trivial in importance? The story quotes two representatives of pro-Democratic groups (one of whom was formerly with AIPAC) criticizing this hire. Republicans have blasted the Obama Administration as being insufficiently pro-Israel. This is just some return fire (albeit with a squirtgun).cgwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10626069163536096203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-11957384400883978212012-07-15T09:17:25.114-05:002012-07-15T09:17:25.114-05:00I disagree with you about the importance of the Ba...I disagree with you about the importance of the Bain thing. I mean, why would the Obama Campaign be pounding the issue to this extent if it was so irrelevant? I think the reason it's signficant politically is that Romney wants to run for President as the bland, but shrewd businessman who knows how to get companies hiring again. He has not run on his record as Gov. from MA because so much of what he did during that time would inflame the Right. And don't rorget he only served one term, having decided not to run for reelection. <br /><br />So back to why Bain matters- it's probably true that people won't vote against Romney because of the Bain stuff, but people who are on the fence between R and O will be FAR less impressed by Romney's business bacground if his tenure at Bain Capital is viewed negatively. Romney wants to say "I understand the private sector, I'm a businessman." Yet it's getting harder and harder for him to make that argument as this Bain thing goes on, leaving him with very little to campaign on at all.<br /><br />The Bain thing is also a useful framing device. Obama economics to be viewed through a prism of fairness. Highlighting the exploits or fich private equity guys like Romney helps a lot.PA Politiconoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-66660770047373261602012-07-15T02:28:18.802-05:002012-07-15T02:28:18.802-05:00Very good insightVery good insightDubtuneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17766419605060496526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-85789295661807260392012-07-15T02:23:42.134-05:002012-07-15T02:23:42.134-05:00The latter part of the week sees a dramatic increa...The latter part of the week sees a dramatic increase in the stock exchange due to positive financial news.<br /><br />In real estate blogs I see increase in prices for <a href="http://www.ustings.com/10/posts/1-Housing/" rel="nofollow">Florida real estate</a>, <a href="http://www.ustings.com/34/posts/1-Housing/" rel="nofollow">New York Real Estate</a> and real estate all over the country. <br /><br />This all goes well for Obama. I am willing to bet that unemployment numbers will be below 8% before election day.Dubtuneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17766419605060496526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-41510580778942247202012-07-14T23:54:07.357-05:002012-07-14T23:54:07.357-05:00Romney is getting attacked by the left for associa...Romney is getting attacked by the left for associating with anti-Israel elements in his party. What did Romney do? Nothing. But the RNC hired a former Ron Paul spokesman (who, for the record, is black and has never said anything about Israel that anyone knows of):<br /><br />http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/pro-israel-voices-blast-rncs-hire-of-paul-staffer<br /><br />I always thought the left wanted an open and honest debate about our Israel policy, without demagoguery or prejudice? Now, anyone who’s ever been associated with Paul is automatically “anti-Israel.” And the GOP is attacked for not “dealing in any effective way with Ron Paul” (Read: Purge all his supporters). The funny thing is, much of the GOP establishment (including elements of the Romney campaign) are working mightily to purge any Paulite influence from their ranks. It’s interesting to know that there are Democrats who will cheer them on.<br /><br />Next up: Why won't Romney do something about all those drug traffickers and terrorists from the Ron Paul campaign?Couveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00926561539205771774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-82248190913774897952012-07-14T21:49:37.297-05:002012-07-14T21:49:37.297-05:00anon: not just that some in OH might have been swu...anon: not just that some in OH might have been swung, but that even more there and in the other close states might have been convinced to *stay home* by the Swift Boat attacks, and Kerry's ineffective defense/counterattack.<br />No, I have found no data.andrew longnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-25648486435757139122012-07-14T21:07:22.547-05:002012-07-14T21:07:22.547-05:00Actually, Abramowitz has a new model where he argu...Actually, Abramowitz has a new model where he argues that our partisan polarization limits the effects of incumbency, so in that model, Kerry in 2004 runs just about right on the prediction.<br /><br />That said, yes, that does feel an AWFUL LOT like curve-fitting (for those unaware, if you look at data and add simple variables every time your predictions are off, you can quickly make models more accurate, while not actually understanding anything...all you're doing is tricking the math). Which bothers me more than a little, since Abramowitz's original model was both my favorite AND the one that had the best theoretical justification for its variables.Matthew Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-6090255598364484832012-07-14T20:40:22.321-05:002012-07-14T20:40:22.321-05:00Yes.Yes.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-65701501253081193432012-07-14T20:40:09.068-05:002012-07-14T20:40:09.068-05:00Hmmm...well, in the current format, the focus is m...Hmmm...well, in the current format, the focus is more up to commenters than me.<br /><br />Generally, I'd say that to the extent that campaign stuff matters, it's far more likely to matter in the final few weeks than earlier. John Sides had a good post on that this week. <br /><br />And it's also still possible that earlier things matter; it's just that it's harder to find evidence for it.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-39302291456735646802012-07-14T20:37:44.612-05:002012-07-14T20:37:44.612-05:00What anon says. You don't even need the models...What anon says. You don't even need the models; you just have to assume incumbents are hard to beat during even fairly good economic times, and that by November '04 the combination of September 11, Afghanistan, and Iraq were at least a net push. <br /><br />Granted, it's possible that the Swift Boat stuff hurt Kerry but other campaign/candidate things helped him even more.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-56643571444833015922012-07-14T19:19:11.167-05:002012-07-14T19:19:11.167-05:00Question:
It seems like the things that "mat...Question:<br /><br />It seems like the things that "matter" in campaigns are those that have tangible electoral consequences, which is not the case for most gaffes/narratives/ads/etc. in general presidential elections. <br /><br />The other things that matter are those that affect governance, like what a candidate promises during a campaign. <br /><br />So is it not possible that the campaign trivia that have a negligible effect on electoral outcomes can still matter by influencing the type of promises that a candidate ends up making?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com