tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post644613730921641437..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Catch of the DayJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-32849540677003768242011-06-19T01:52:08.367-05:002011-06-19T01:52:08.367-05:00Mr Depalma needs to truly read electoral history. ...Mr Depalma needs to truly read electoral history. Since he surely identifies with the Tea Party types, who appear to be composed of many, many, wingnuts, (ie', they see all who disagree with them as Unamerican-which are true fighting words to me), then maybe he will be willing, once he stops frothing at the mouth with his anti-Obama rants, explain exactly what his ideas are to improve the economy.. and DON"T you dare say, "cut taxes". We all know that the tax rate is at lowest level in 60 years, and we have seen where good ole Georgie's tax cuts got us. The mess we are in right now. See you in 2012, with the electoral college vote in my victorious back pocketAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-64145430905964826462011-06-18T14:05:10.173-05:002011-06-18T14:05:10.173-05:00Please. I keep hearing how much trouble Obama is i...Please. I keep hearing how much trouble Obama is in, yet he's never dropped below 46% approval and the last 6 months he's steadily floated between 52%-46%, depending on whether he's currently running "Hot" or not. This the economy is bad, and yes the voters are not pleased with Obama's performance on the econmomy, but whats the alternative? Mr. Bain Capital Mitt Romney? Mr. Tax cuts for the rich will save us? <br />Again ...... Please. The election is shaping up for a close one, and if you look at all the states in play, and assume Obama is very likely to hold the Kerry states, from electoral college alone, he has a fairly wide path to reelection, not even needing Florida or Ohio. Electorally speaking, he's in surprisingly good shape, but the economy must improve some, otherwise it really doesn't matter.Matthew J Holdenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16258484425670085360noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-83938175135480703142011-06-18T13:43:37.093-05:002011-06-18T13:43:37.093-05:00Interesting . . . I seem to recall that, during th...Interesting . . . I seem to recall that, during the 2004 and 2008 election cycles, conservatives argued that the only thing that mattered in choosing a president is how they would deal with the whole al Queda/terror/war/foreign policy issue. Funny we don't hear much now about any of that . . . with the exception of GOPers complaining about the Libya war (a legal dispute, really, so hard to sell to voters as a Obama failure). We do hear the interesting whine that Obama "coddles our enemies and angers our friends." Uh, yeah . . . Osama surely felt coddled . . . . Even the claim that Obama "sold out Israel" (which continues to receive billions of dollars in aid, despite Netanyahu's intransigence) seem to have fallen largely on deaf ears, since the polling shows that a strong majority of voters think Obama has the balance "just right" between the Israelis and the Palestinians.<br /><br />The reality is that the performance of the economy will be one of MANY things considered when people vote. It will be the economic performance AND voter perception of Obama's culpability in it; we know from the WSJ poll last week that 62% of those surveyed know he was dealt a bad hand. I suspect THAT accounts for the fact that Obama's approval ratings are above 50% if you look at all the polls and don't cherry pick Rasmussen . .. which,I might add, has him at about 46% approval. Not bad considering.<br /><br />What else will voters consider? How his efforts have played out. Interestingly, Obamacare is not all that popular, but there is also no alternative on the table. I would love to hear the return to tomorrow argument from GOPers and how that would play out; I would bet a steak dinner that that would be less popular than Obamacare is. The auto bailout . . . you won't be hearing much about that from GOPers, or about how great RyanCare would be for everyone.<br /><br />What else goes into the mix? Obama's opponent. This is where it really sucks for GOPers -- they are not enthusiastic about their own candidates, and most of them (Romney, Santorum, Pawlenty, Bachmann, Gingrich, etc.) could not carry their own home state against Obama. Couple that with unpopular GOPer governors in swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida) and you have a recipe for GOP disaster. The only GOPer hope at this point is NOT that the economy stay where it is, but that it gets much worse.<br /><br />No, I think Obama wins re-election. And the weakness of the GOP field tells me that they, too, think he will be re-elected. I predict they will soon start arguing that the most important thing is to take the Senate and hold the House.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37525900343094808942011-06-18T10:26:53.429-05:002011-06-18T10:26:53.429-05:00The economic problems noted above are all a part o...The economic problems noted above are all a part of the Republican legacy. Not all voters have forgotten.Jacquesenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03432992090830534636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-39899118242589265882011-06-18T09:28:23.349-05:002011-06-18T09:28:23.349-05:00Forget Mr. Obama's general approval rating. L...Forget Mr. Obama's general approval rating. Look instead at his deeply underwater economic job approval and voters who say they will vote to reelect Obama. Voters disapprove of Obama's economic performance by a nearly 2:1 ratio and a heavy pluralities say they will definitely vote against the President.<br /><br />When you juxtapose Mr. Obama's mediocre general approval rating against his underwater reelect numbers, the voters appear to be saying: "Barry we like you personally, but you have been a disaster. Don't let the door hit you in the rear as you leave."Bart DePalmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07059093309718767384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-19229659084246853332011-06-18T08:43:37.194-05:002011-06-18T08:43:37.194-05:00Obama's unemployment bogie isn't 9%, or ev...Obama's unemployment bogie isn't 9%, or even 8%, it's less than that. <br /><br />If he shows up on the 2012 ballot with a stagflated economy and massive debt and high misery index and high inflation and 7% unemployment, plus Bailouts, Porkulus, Cap and Tax and Obamacare as his only "achievements", then he's toast. <br /><br />He needs 3% real economic growth to arrive, and fast. That's the only thing that can save him now. His problem is that everything he's doing is helping stifle potential growth.<br /><br />He could make like Bill Clinton, who accepted that 18% of GDP is an acceptable level of spending and who signed a welfare reform bill. Obama could sign off on major entitlement reform, with broad bipartisan acceptance, but he doesn't appear willing to do that.<br /><br />He's toast unless he changes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-13213179539852181452011-06-16T18:04:37.458-05:002011-06-16T18:04:37.458-05:00Anonymous:
Sorry about the reading fail. Read the ...Anonymous:<br />Sorry about the reading fail. Read the post: it clearly states that if the economy gets getter, Obama likely wins, and if it gets worse, he likely loses.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-50125015177390627132011-06-16T17:42:38.055-05:002011-06-16T17:42:38.055-05:00It is not surprising that any Republican is not be...It is not surprising that any Republican is not beating the President at the moment. The key poll for the President now is his approval, which has been trending down. <br />As for Jay Cost's column, I would argue he is right. If unemployment is above 9% then I think the President is highly unlikely to get re-elected. Progressive bloggers can debate about how voter seems to like Obama, but it will be irrelevant. The economy will have a huge impact on the President's reelection despite what you and other progressives write.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com