tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post665970435673226243..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Assessing the Effects of Votes in CongressJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-75014019786730083952011-04-05T12:01:35.894-05:002011-04-05T12:01:35.894-05:00Dave Brady has been saying for years that various ...Dave Brady has been saying for years that various votes (note: always votes on Democratic policy!) have affected vote shares. At MPSA last week, he claimed that ACA votes cost Dems 20-25 seats (if I remember correctly...I think his range was somewhat smaller, but it was in there). However, he then made precisely your point: all we can do is compare no to yes votes in the world where it passed. We really don't have much info on what would have happened to the yes/no voters if it had failed.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-45465013344279027012011-04-05T08:08:34.553-05:002011-04-05T08:08:34.553-05:00There could also be game changers between now and ...There could also be game changers between now and 2012. There haven't been any stories about the health care law hurting anyone (like what happened with HMO's), and when people hear more about what's in it they tend to like it.<br /><br />And the debate has switched to the debt/budget. Even the Republican's aren't talking about HCR right now. But that could change during the election.<br /><br />I know the paper looked at several issues (including TARP which was passed under Bush) but right now I don't think people are going to base their vote in 2012 on HCR.roseonpoliticshttp://roseonpolitics.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.com