tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post6907319838597364381..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Yes, It's Still Romney, Probably EasilyJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-55829793828629570362012-02-08T21:19:43.954-06:002012-02-08T21:19:43.954-06:00It’s still very important to note that Santorum ha...It’s still very important to note that Santorum has nowhere near the resources he’ll need to seriously contest the 13 states on the 28th and super Tuesday. I know he bragged that he raised 250k overnight after his sweep on Tuesday, which sounds like a lot to you or me, but that will barely get him out the gate to buy TV points in a major market like Phoenix or Detroit, and that still leaves the rest of those states and the other 11 states untouched. Let alone the money and staff to cover all that ground with offices, field staff, advance people ect. Romney is simply on a different level of campaign resources than Santorum and unless that changes it will be very, very hard for him to compete.longwalkdownlyndalehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13173899547449318257noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-80558423330770855112012-02-08T18:04:24.736-06:002012-02-08T18:04:24.736-06:00Scott - you're obviously right about Pawlenty....Scott - you're obviously right about Pawlenty. Don't know about anyone else, but I have the impression that my own egregious stream of consciousness goofs are correlated with the enjoyment of writing the wrong thing.<br /><br />For example, its so much more fun to write "the sitting Republican governor" (with appropriate venom when spitting out "sitting") than the more accurate "some guy who used to be governor".CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-73021767356554453462012-02-08T16:09:19.510-06:002012-02-08T16:09:19.510-06:00I was already wondering how comparisons to Dole an...I was already wondering how comparisons to Dole and McCain were supposed to make him feel better. You make it even more depressing for him.<br /><br />Just a minor quibble. Pawlenty isn't the sitting governor. He stepped down after two terms in 2010, and a Democrat is governor now.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-60000541301612058502012-02-08T16:02:24.690-06:002012-02-08T16:02:24.690-06:00Romney has had too many failures; failure swirls a...Romney has had too many failures; failure swirls around in his mind just like Black Obama strips out a teabaggers' reason (oxymoron? well some kind of moron, for sure). He's now given to gaffes like never before which indicates panic and reactionism. He will blunder again. Open convention seems more and more likely. If Jeb is stupid enough to take a brokered nomination, Romney is his VP. Such precise death spirals are rare and have a unique beauty about them that cause the observers to gasp in wonder.<br /><br />ShirtAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-91131727184405231192012-02-08T14:30:16.264-06:002012-02-08T14:30:16.264-06:00I don't think anyone can beat Romney before th...I don't think anyone can beat Romney before the convention, but I do think the possibility of Romney not having a majority of delegates in hand before the convention has increased.BrianTHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-16826051102411115362012-02-08T13:43:12.179-06:002012-02-08T13:43:12.179-06:00It could just be that this is what nominating a ve...It could just be that this is what nominating a very weak candidate looks like. There will be hints and intimations of his weakness along the way, even as he (mostly) dominates the nominating contest -- en route to getting crushed in the general.<br /><br />Or not! We'll see. :-)Jeffnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-28471836080272303752012-02-08T13:03:47.380-06:002012-02-08T13:03:47.380-06:00While I agree that Romney seems the likely nominee...While I agree that Romney seems the likely nominee, I base that on my (limited) knowledge of precedent; it strikes me that we may believe in the past because we're not sure which side of the looking glass we're on. FWIW, I find the historic comparisons to last night entirely unpersuasive; Dole barely lost NH and a couple of incongruous early caucuses (one he didn't contest), Bush's 3 included the obvious NH and even more obvious Arizona, and 2 of McCain's losses were Mormon-friendly Wyoming and Nevada. None compares with the bizarre shellacking Romney took last night.<br /><br />Here's a frame that may be useful: going into last night's caucuses, let's assume that 90% or so of the Minnesota GOP either actively (or grudgingly) recognized Romney Inevitability, either because they believed it in their minds or read about it on blogs such as this. Perhaps 5% of the Minnesota GOP believed in Santorum, with the last 5 split between Gingrich and Paul.<br /><br />No big deal so far, after all Romney carried the state in '08, he had the endorsement of the sitting Republican governor, and he outspent Santorum <i>40 to 1</i>, (regardless of the spin today that he "didn't try"!). Last night they caucused, and as nervous Romney-endorser John Hinderaker reminds us, only 5% of the Minnesota GOP put up with listening to their neighbors to cast a vote.<br /><br />Santorum got 45% of that vote, or roughly 2% of the state GOP (2% ~ 45%*5%). Romney got 17% of that vote, or around 1% of the state GOP (1% ~ 17%*5%).<br />Thus, about 40% of the Santorum believers (40% = 2%/5%) put up with last night's caucus; while a mere 1% of the Romney believers did (1% = 1%/90%).<br /><br />Given Romney's money advantage, endorsement advantage, and prior electoral success advantage, it occurs to me that's a result almost unlike anything we've ever seen before, and certainly not in the last 3 contested cycles. What happens next?<br /><br />I don't think anyone really knows.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-8689529836181172752012-02-08T12:05:50.296-06:002012-02-08T12:05:50.296-06:00I'm not so sure why people are confident about...I'm not so sure why people are confident about Mitt in Michigan. Yeah, his dad was governor, but he is not his dad. <br /><br />If I were Santorum I would run an endless loop of Romney's comments about the Detroit auto industry (if I had the money!) and see what happens. It seems like Santorum's social conservatism mixed with the Rust Belt economic populism would play well with Michigan Republicans.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-73202195498527347082012-02-08T12:01:57.486-06:002012-02-08T12:01:57.486-06:00But it's not the destination that counts, it&#...But it's not the destination that counts, it's the journey. The fix is still in for Mr. Inevitable, but the more he gets beat up in the primaries, the less he gets to keep his mouth shut before he tries to swing to the center after the convention.Robert Fishellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14223452469890424434noreply@blogger.com