tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post6947005072252081353..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Senate Roundup: Every Seat MattersJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-1436100507268127212012-10-27T04:56:14.905-05:002012-10-27T04:56:14.905-05:00I don't see why the latter would be less likel...I don't see why the latter would be less likely, when you're dealing with a larger pool of voters. <br /><br />Just to get the idea: It's conceivable that Obama will lose a million voters before the election. But it's mathematically impossible that Heidi Heitkamp will, because there aren't enough humans, let alone voters, in ND.Neil Sinhababuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03249327186653397250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-10632656159559051572012-10-26T07:59:15.437-05:002012-10-26T07:59:15.437-05:00Of course if Harry Reid actually follows through o...Of course if Harry Reid actually follows through on his recent pledge to reform the filibuster, then the exact size of the Democratic majority (assuming they keep it) won't matter quite as much as it now seems. But I'm not holding my breath waiting for Senators to do something logical.Ron E.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-78369376911889984072012-10-26T07:45:19.565-05:002012-10-26T07:45:19.565-05:00I continue to think 2016 will be a really interest...I continue to think 2016 will be a really interesting election on the Senate side; you have several Republican incumbents elected narrowly from blue states like IL, PA, and, to a lesser extent, WI; I would expect all of those incumbents to face very strong challenges.Chris Gnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-39482711274018317462012-10-25T15:04:59.600-05:002012-10-25T15:04:59.600-05:00I think it does matter whether Republicans control...I think it does matter whether Republicans control the House after the 2012 election by 15 or 25 or 35 seats; it might not matter much legislatively in 2013-14, but given incumbency advantages of 3 to 5 percentage points it matters for the probability that they hold they House in the 2014 election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-71385669576765615572012-10-25T14:40:47.900-05:002012-10-25T14:40:47.900-05:00The Arizona senate race is a lot more competitive ...The Arizona senate race is a lot more competitive than most outside observers are giving credit. It's been lightly polled by comparison to many of the other toss ups (mainly bc AZ will go for Romney) but there are some indications that Carmona may have a slight edge. 2 public polls have had him ahead recently and his campaign released an internal poll showing up 4 pts, 2 days ago. Although internal polls can be unreliable and Republicans naturally complained about the methodology, they're clearly worried about losing the seat. The night that internal poll was released the NRSC announced a 2.3 million ad buy for the last 2 weeks (they had previously announced that AZ was such a lock they wouldn't spend any money on it) and another outside group pledged an additional 1 million. Carmona also outraised Flake's campaign for the last month by 500k. It will undoubtedly be a close race but I'd be willing to put money on Carmona being up right now and pulling off the biggest upset of the cycle. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-27428449338752258572012-10-25T14:39:41.516-05:002012-10-25T14:39:41.516-05:00I asked this on question day, but as a practical m...I asked this on question day, but as a practical matter, is the same percentage size lead safer in a bigger state than a smaller state? Is Kaine's 3.0 percent lead in Virginia safer than Berg's 2.7 percent lead in North Dakota? Berg would need to lose about 10,000 votes to lose his race, while Kaine would need to lose more than 100,000 votes.<br /><br />It seems intuitive to me that the latter is less likely, but I don't know for sure.TNnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-9130507923709354922012-10-25T14:12:58.903-05:002012-10-25T14:12:58.903-05:00If Republicans hadn't nominated Tea Party cand...If Republicans hadn't nominated Tea Party candidates in Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware last time, they probably would have won all three. If they didn't have Akin and Mourdock to contend with, they'd have Missouri and Indiana locked up. And if they hadn't made the Senate such a hostile place for moderates, Olympia Snowe might have run for reelection or there would be a much better chance that Angus King would caucus with them. <br /><br />The Republicans will likely hold the House, and its possible Romney could win the White House, but because of their habit of nominating whackadoodles, the Senate is basically out of reach.Greghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16387816156204378075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-55512059946312341902012-10-25T14:06:36.415-05:002012-10-25T14:06:36.415-05:00One related point: Every Senate seat won by the De...One related point: Every Senate seat won by the Democrats this year is one more they won't have to hold on to in 2014, when the class of 2008 is up for re-election. If Obama is in the White House, the 2014 mid-terms might be another difficult election for the Democrats. Picking up seats in IN or AZ this year means that losses in AK or NC will be less likely to be the deciding seats in giving control to the Republicans in 2014.<br /><br />One oddity is how lopsided the classes are. Class I (2006/2012) has only 9 Republicans. Class II (2008/2014) has only 13. But Class III (2010/2016) has 24. If the Democrats can hold their own this year it will be as impressive a victory as the Republican's in 2010. Kalhttp://twitter.com/#!/Kalbelgarionnoreply@blogger.com