tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post8562999384297574371..comments2023-03-27T20:41:46.441-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Ignore Those Polls! (Small Sample Size Crosstabs Edition)Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-48841501844057027892013-11-18T16:36:04.988-06:002013-11-18T16:36:04.988-06:00Here's the number one reason the Democratic ad...Here's the number one reason the Democratic administration has to get the ACA implementation back on track: as far as I can tell, no one, most definitely including all media outlets, will let them pivot to discussing government support for the economy and job creation *until* implementation is going better. US economic confidence continues to be shot, and each day that goes by sequester budgeting seems more normalized.PFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00263515090451316188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-70213444005544103692013-11-18T16:17:38.667-06:002013-11-18T16:17:38.667-06:00Depends, of course, on the subsample.
Women? Sure...Depends, of course, on the subsample.<br /><br />Women? Sure...that's half the sample. It's not going to blow the confidence interval all that high.<br /><br />Partisans? at about 1/3 of the sample (either Dems or Reps) it's not great, but the larger sample sizes (1000) aren't so terrible here. <br /><br />Hispanics? At 10-15% of the sample (usually they're somewhat harder to reach than whites), we're talking about maybe 40-60 people in the smaller samples, and even your full gold-standard 1000 person sample gets you, at most, 150 people. That's not a very big number in your denominator. (technically, the square root of that) Actually, if your sample is 11% Latino/Hispanic, that's works out REALLY nicely to a confidence interval 3 times as large as in the full sample. So, that +/- 3 points? That's +/- 9 points for a Latino subsample. AKA an 18 point range. AKA really big.Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.com