tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post8581906164364461512..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: Ignore Those Polls!Jonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-13131168451643574522013-12-09T18:30:11.836-06:002013-12-09T18:30:11.836-06:00HR isn't gong to remind you -- we don't ca...HR isn't gong to remind you -- we don't care. The IRS will remind you -- they are the ones assessing the penalties. HR falls under their company mandates with respect to the number of full time employees. They will take care of you under their company mandates period. Heathcare.gov is more of an entitlement program management system -- why buy from a government program when if you are not receiving a subsidy and can afford your own heathcare -- go to the open market better deals and way more options. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-71768372710140317772013-12-08T17:36:58.125-06:002013-12-08T17:36:58.125-06:00@backyard, I hope there was irony in your use of &...@backyard, I hope there was irony in your use of "Top 10 List whinging." JB whinges with much, much firmer standing than you do.ModeratePolihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01721945380057992971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-81153535994363209552013-12-07T09:17:06.774-06:002013-12-07T09:17:06.774-06:00If 40% of employees voluntarily opt out of their c...If 40% of employees voluntarily opt out of their companies' large group plans, then it is almost certainly the case that the vast majority of them receive insurance through a spouse or parent. For some context, according to gallup, 44.5% of Americans receive insurance through their employers, and 25.6% through government programs generally only available to retirees and low income families that don't have access to affordable insurance through employers, like Medicare, Medicaid, and CHIP (http://www.gallup.com/poll/160676/fewer-americans-getting-health-insurance-employer.aspx). The combined 28% of uninsured and individual market insured is not nearly high enough for nearly 40% of American workers who are offered health insurance through their employers to be under-30's who think they're invincible and don't want health insurance. Heck, I'm doubtful there are even that many under-30's working, much less working at jobs that offer them insurance!<br /><br />Anyway, if the government mandated that auto insurance companies charge the same amount for everyone and then mandated that everyone buy insurance or face large fines, then we would all still have insurance. Even the young invincibles... who, incidentally, already face higher insurance rates today for auto insurance, yet still generally get their cars insured.Joshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-17642069630915681212013-12-07T06:17:38.346-06:002013-12-07T06:17:38.346-06:00If you've specialized in any industry, you kno...If you've specialized in any industry, you know that a lot of laypeople believe that they have something figured out that could really improve your industry. They're almost always really wrong. JB consistently whines about polling questions, but never posts about how he spoke to X from Y polling company who was dazzled by his ideas. My guess: the polling experts have good reasons to word their polls as they do and JB is being painfully ignorant. Until he explains his interactions with them, it's best to view these posts of his as Top 10 List whinging from the comment section.backyardfoundrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-6598810959284475342013-12-07T00:56:51.161-06:002013-12-07T00:56:51.161-06:00It seems to me there are ways to make health insur...It seems to me there are ways to make health insurance more attractive to younger people, like some kind of discount applied to federal student loans. If one house of Congress wasn't controlled by a party with no interest in the health of American citizens or of the American economy, such possibilities could be entertained.Captain Futurehttp://dreamingup.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-8922163879307560482013-12-06T16:53:14.410-06:002013-12-06T16:53:14.410-06:00Mostly, this is just one where we'll wait and ...Mostly, this is just one where we'll wait and see what happens, so I guess arguing it is a bit pointless. Still...insurance companies aren't exactly without advertising resources, and neither is the federal government. <br /><br />My basic feeling is by age 30 or so, most people, including healthy people, would like to have health insurance. Sure, some won't get around to it, but lots of people tried and failed in the bad old days, and they'll try and succeed (mostly) now.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-90615981184437363382013-12-06T16:05:56.281-06:002013-12-06T16:05:56.281-06:00Honestly, I don't expect many folks to sign up...Honestly, I don't expect many folks to sign up this year. The whole concept of the ACA is built on the individual mandate; it's the only way the goodies get paid for. That mandate is enforced by the IRS.....in April. The self-employed don't have HR to remind them to sign up. Those without insurance had not yet chosen to buy some, whether because of CSH's logic or because of Anonymous @1:04's. They need SOMETHING to push them into it; I really and truly doubt Cooper's #2 as just plain denialist fantasy. (Similarly, nothing about #1, 5, or 6 changed either the day ACA passed or on 1/1/14).<br /><br />No, people will sign up when the IRS makes them or they find out from friends or whatever that there are subsidies and health care is now somewhat affordable.<br /><br />This is why the conservative push to delegitimize it are so important. If conservatives can make it seem like the coverage sucks or it's too expensive, then nothing will have changed in the lives of the uninsured, so why would they change their behavior? (They're completely barking up the wrong tree with the creepy Uncle Sam tactics of "it's bad for you/takes away your freedom": they're taking the sermon meant for the choir and trying to ply that in the town square)<br /><br />Young folks will sign up when either convinced to or forced to. That will take a while, and that lag may end up really killing Obamacare. Until they sign up, Obamacare is all goodies (coverage, pre-existing, etc.) with no way to pay for it. I'm not crying for insurance companies (they do fine without my help), but if people don't start showing up in a couple of years, it's bad. Matt Jarvisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-89100388125560818902013-12-06T14:02:49.793-06:002013-12-06T14:02:49.793-06:00Discounting it appropriately would mean discountin...Discounting it appropriately would mean discounting your position on the matter completely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-87515683632060500042013-12-06T13:48:10.923-06:002013-12-06T13:48:10.923-06:00Alas, as I said above, I can't recall the repo...Alas, as I said above, I can't recall the report of the stat, much less the source. Like any unsubstantiated, semi-anonymous claim on the tubes, you'll have to discount it appropriately and subject it primarily to your own common sense.<br /><br />If it matters, I do hope that I'm wrong about all this. Not just because, in Plain Blog world, "Wrong is the new Right" (though that's pretty cool), but mostly because if I am wrong that will be all for the best.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-47250071124460109842013-12-06T13:11:29.559-06:002013-12-06T13:11:29.559-06:00Maybe you should consider getting into professiona...Maybe you should consider getting into professional heckling, as that's all you seem to do around here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-67070371577255669332013-12-06T13:04:05.209-06:002013-12-06T13:04:05.209-06:00I'm a Millenial who now has affordable health ...I'm a Millenial who now has affordable health insurance thanks to the ACA. I could not go on my parents' plan, as they live in a country with actual universal healthcare, and couldn't get insurance through an employer as I am self-employed.<br /><br />The thing is, I wouldn't have even bothered with any of it if I hadn't had an accident that landed me in the hospital for almost two weeks while I was in college. The hospital bill was larger than all the money I had earned up to that point in my life. I was financially ruined before I was even able to start a career.<br /><br />That was a lesson learned, and in my case it showed me the value of health insurance. That being said, most everyone I know could care less about getting insurance, because they've mostly never had to deal with a medical emergency like I did. Obamacare or healthcare.gov are absolutely the last things on their minds, and, as you said, they probably won't sign up for anything unless their parents nag them. I know anecdotal evidence is worth pretty much nothing, but most people I know who are my age would rather just pay the penalty and not bother with getting health insurance that will end up costing more in the long run.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-30383361257045156912013-12-06T12:38:32.830-06:002013-12-06T12:38:32.830-06:00JB,
Have you considered getting into polling? You...JB,<br /><br />Have you considered getting into polling? You seem dead convinced that you could do it better than the people who already do. backyardfoundrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-37311166901856262812013-12-06T12:32:27.130-06:002013-12-06T12:32:27.130-06:00@CSH if you want to assert "that those 40% wo...@CSH if you want to assert "that those 40% would be comprised of almost entirely young invincibles" you will need to provide the poll/survey/study that supports this claim. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-58031162280095822782013-12-06T11:01:29.061-06:002013-12-06T11:01:29.061-06:00Somewhat in reply to Kal above, I've been thin...Somewhat in reply to Kal above, I've been thinking a bit how different health insurance is from auto or homeowners insurance. Even though the actuarial probability of a significant auto or home-related expense is much less predictable than a significant health-related expense, auto and home insurers nevertheless go to much greater lengths to customize their policies on actuarial differences.<br /><br />Jonathan's correct of course that polls don't tell us how kids will behave. I can't recall the cite, but I remember reading recently that as many as 40% of employees voluntarily opt out of their companies' large group plans. In spite of significant employer subsidies, in spite of no alternative spousal large group plan, in spite of the hostility from HR. We don't need a poll to know that those 40% would be comprised of almost entirely young invincibles, do we?<br /><br />I'm a grump on this topic, but my fear is that we are collectively avoiding the moose on the table that will bite us badly in the arse. Kal's linked article from Sarah Kliff above is a great example; Kliff reports that the people who have tried to get on the health care website have been really committed. I'm sure that's true! Kliff went on to cite a couple examples, and in spite of the zeitgeist, didn't feel compelled to note the obvious: <i>she clearly wasn't referring to young invincibles</i>. (Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...)<br /><br />Basically, the reason why Obamacare will succeed among young invincibles is that the actuarial disadvantage to them is offset by the protection on the smallish chance that their assumption of invincibility is wrong. By that logic, everyone should be willing to pay the same full boat price for their auto or homeowners insurance, shouldn't they?<br /><br />Leaves a question for those convinced that the young invincibles will willingly absorb the actuarial disadvantage in exchange for protection from an extreme health outcome: why do you think State Farm sacrices profit in exchange for the "Discount daaable-check"? Couldn't GEICO think of something better to do in those 15 minutes than saving low-risk consumers 15%?<br /><br />I want to be pro-Obamacare, and to Anastasios' point a while back, we're stuck with it...but seriously, assuming young healthies will willingly absorb their actuarial disadvantage runs pretty contrary to human behavior as we otherwise observe it.CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-61010866571085719252013-12-06T10:14:58.560-06:002013-12-06T10:14:58.560-06:00I'm suspicious of poll results that say that p...I'm suspicious of poll results that say that people would rather go uninsured than go through the exchanges or even explore their options. Sarah Kliff <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/05/its-hard-to-sign-up-for-obamacare-its-much-worse-to-be-uninsured/" rel="nofollow">wrote</a> a great reminder yesterday (and Zerlina Maxwell has made this point, too) that regardless of how badly Hearthcare.gov functions, being without insurance is even worse. <br /><br />Presumably, many of these young people had health insurance before, when they were children, and there is some expectation that they should see a doctor and dentist at least once a year. It's difficult to fathom <i>choosing</i> to do without insurance when affordable options are available. Kalhttps://twitter.com/kalbelgarionnoreply@blogger.com