tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post8694118267609721961..comments2023-10-16T07:13:12.123-05:00Comments on A plain blog about politics: The Limits of CampaignsJonathan Bernsteinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-56179081829379220512012-02-23T21:01:20.595-06:002012-02-23T21:01:20.595-06:00If y'all are interested, I'm curious wheth...If y'all are interested, I'm curious whether campaign effects might make a difference in niches, if not necessarily en masse. To illustrate, there's a <a href="http://www.ricksantorum.com/pressrelease/new-santorum-television-ad-uses-romneys-own-words-describe-romneys-record-romney-sure-n" rel="nofollow">new Santorum ad</a> that attacks Romney using his own words. Most of it is pretty bland boilerplate stuff, Romney not disciplined on spending, sucking at the trough, compromised like all other politicians. A big yawn.<br /><br />The first two quotes seem a bit different, particularly in light of Nate's observation about Romney's struggles with working-class whites. The first is Romney saying he's not aligned with the NRA; the second is that he's pro-choice.<br /><br />The question: if we set aside the general stuff about spending and liberalism as just noise, might there be a specific impact in niches, such as the 2nd Amendment or Pro-Life voters paying extra attention to the Santorum ad? Has anyone studied the impact of issue-based campaign framing, and whether its impact flows through from the niche to the overall results, such as Santorum surely would like to happen in the Midwest?CSHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-34804936075161671832012-02-23T16:57:19.349-06:002012-02-23T16:57:19.349-06:00I think the voters in families with incomes above ...I think the voters in families with incomes above $200 K are more switchable than the rest of the electorate. According to the exit polls, they switched in significant numbers from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004, and then switched in large numbers to Obama in 2008 (Obama was the first Democrat to carry the highest income group polled since exit polls have been around, while Kerry lost this group by more than 3 to 2). These voters have more at stake in government decisions, and tend to be better educated and to follow politics more closely than less prosperous voters. McCain's choice of Palin likely hurt the Republican ticket with the highest income group, as did his somewhat erratic performance around the Lehman bankruptcy in September 2008.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-62712638081132037562012-02-23T15:31:02.937-06:002012-02-23T15:31:02.937-06:00Jonathan,
Have you read Lynn Vavreck's book...Jonathan,<br /> Have you read Lynn Vavreck's book "The Message Matters?"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-22754202607484852302012-02-23T15:06:04.359-06:002012-02-23T15:06:04.359-06:00Hey, Nate! Welcome to Plain Blog.
Fair enough, an...Hey, Nate! Welcome to Plain Blog.<br /><br />Fair enough, and I hope I didn't overstate your claims in what was overall an article I like (in, by the way, an edition of the NYT magazine that was outstanding). <br /><br />Truth is, though, that I'm pretty skeptical that there's any kind of effect here at all. I do think there's a plausible case for a Romney/Santorum difference, although I'm not entirely convinced that it would be the case (and, in the event, I think there's a very good chance that Santorum as nominee would turn into a disaster, making this kind of analysis irrelevant). But for an incumbent president...I definitely believe that there can be GOTV-type campaign effects produced by organization, but I'm pretty skeptical that rhetoric & positioning can make any difference at all.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-46617331047086086442012-02-23T14:28:23.248-06:002012-02-23T14:28:23.248-06:00J.B.,
There's not really any claim in the art...J.B.,<br /><br />There's not really any claim in the article about the magnitude of campaign effects. It is termed a "thought experiment" and designed for illustrative purposes. <br /><br />The meaty part of the article is simply in pointing out that white working-class voters tend to be concentrated in swing states, whereas wealthy whites very much are not. It does seem to me that there is some tenuous evidence in the polls that Romney could have some issues among working-class whites, and in the Midwest, at least as compared to how he performs against Obama nationally. (Despite the headline, the article is really more about Romney/Santorum than Obama). Even 1 or 2 points worth of difference is enough to impact the electoral math since that's roughly the margin at which the electoral math matters to begin with.<br /><br />http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/romneys-tenuous-electability-edge/Nate Silverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09242115668974631672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-4651228233605211232012-02-23T14:01:05.113-06:002012-02-23T14:01:05.113-06:00And now fixed. I'm leaving, as I noted above, ...And now fixed. I'm leaving, as I noted above, the rest of the post alone. Sorry about that, and thanks, Scott, for the catch.Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-72228786481989277102012-02-23T13:58:11.193-06:002012-02-23T13:58:11.193-06:00Argghhh. That's really ugly, isn't it. I g...Argghhh. That's really ugly, isn't it. I guess I need to go in and fix...Jonathan Bernsteinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15931039630306253241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-53571638857693605492012-02-23T13:55:19.199-06:002012-02-23T13:55:19.199-06:00I'm not sure we should accept a statistical ar...I'm not sure we should accept a statistical argument from someone who thinks $2,000 a month is equal to $48,000 a year.Scott Monjenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6926413038778731189.post-16808850278465025582012-02-23T13:55:09.366-06:002012-02-23T13:55:09.366-06:00Silver has a 'structural' bias toward trea...Silver has a 'structural' bias toward treating campaigns as Making a Difference. But perhaps he chose 10 point swings for the sake of illustration? Two points doesn't sound like very much, even though it could easily be decisive in a close race.Rickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16932015378213238346noreply@blogger.com