Jindal and the GOP

Give Chris Orr credit: he's sticking to his guns with his conclusion that Bobby Jindal has no chance to win the GOP presidential nomination.

I have little to add to what Ross Douthat (in his far-more-interesting blogging incarnation) said the first time Orr trotted this one out:

If anything, I think the way the McCain campaign has finished up - and the way the media has covered it - works to Jindal's advantage in 2012: Conservatives are going to be extremely eager to prove that they only hate Obama because he's a radical, not because they're racist, and what better way to demonstrate that than to nominate a dark-skinned conservative with a funny-sounding name? Indeed, much of the current affection for Jindal among movement conservatives - and especially in talk-radio land - can be traced to precisely such a yearning for a conservative Obama: A multicultural prince who channels Ronald Reagan, and whose nomination would at least reduce the taint of racism that clings to the American Right.

A quick review of the careers of recent African American Republicans shows that Douthat is correct. Rice, Powell, Watts, Steele, Thomas -- all rapidly promoted. The only one I can think of who did not move up was Gary Franks (Member of the House from Connecticut in the 1990s, although even there Franks did win a Senate nomination). Hell, they nominated Alan Keyes for the Senate three times from two different states, and he's totally off his rocker. Yes, I'm selecting the people I can remember, so there could be a selection bias, but really: does anyone think black Republicans are underrepresented in Senate nominations, Supreme Court nominations, House leadership, cabinet posts or RNC positions? Compared, that is, to their overall participation in the party.

To be a presidential nominee someone has to capture the support of key party leaders and party-aligned interest groups. I have no idea if Jindal will do that, but I very much doubt that important leaders within the GOP will reject him based on his ethnicity.