First thing I need to say about the emerging health care bill compromise: looks as if I was dead wrong about the Cadillac tax. I definitely underestimated White House commitment on this issue -- it'll be interesting to find out where that came from, when we get the behind the scenes stuff in whatever books people are writing about this. I also probably overestimated the degree to which the unions were committed to blocking it, although I'm not as sure about that. Basically, my analysis was the one major organized interest opposed, and no organized interest of any kind in favor, the tax couldn't survive, even more so because the immediate political effect would likely be more positive for the House's tax-the-rich plan than for this one.
At any rate, my call was wrong, so I figured I should so report.