Thursday, June 9, 2011

Waiting on Perry

Is Rick Perry basically running for president now, and is the implosion of Newt Gingrich related -- with several long-time Perry staffers leaving Newt to return to their real guy? My brother floated the wacko idea that Newt was a stalking horse for Perry back in May; that's presumably not really what was going on, but who knows?

At any rate...wait, first: mostly, this is entirely a self-indulgent post, so I'll apologize for that right now.

Where was I...oh yeah: we here don't call 'em all right*, but there's this, from November 2010 about the Intrade pricing of some longshots:
I'd say that Barbour (2%), DeMint (1%), and Perry (1%) are all seriously undervalued, and if I were placing wagers that's where my money would be.
No dice on the first two, but Perry right now is at 10% and rising, which I believe means that anyone who listened to me then can sell and make a nice profit.

Overall, by the way, the five candidates who I believe are plausible nominees -- Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, Palin, and Bush -- are still only at a combined 65%. I started saying that it was too late in the cycle for most candidates to get in back in March; at that point, I identified eight plausible nominees (the others were Barbour, Huck, and Daniels), and noted that they had a combined 72% from Intrade. So buying those eight then would still be a losing bet if you sold now...but of course in my view, you would have a winning ticket in your pocket.

Really, I'd guess that Romney, Pawlenty, and Perry combined probably have somewhere north of a 90% chance to win; I really don't think Jeb is getting in, and Palin, while still a plausible nominee, isn't getting any closer to actually winning it.

*Hey, I never said that a government shutdown over FY 2011 appropriations was certain; that was just some headline writer. I said it was very likely, or hard to see it not happening, or something like that. Oops.

1 comment:

  1. i find it hard to believe that perry will run. like you, JB, i sit here in san antonio "governed" by rick, but what strikes me is how little rick does even for a texas governor. i think rick likes the nice house, cushy hours, and wingnut love that he gets hanging in the governor's job. i could see him staying till 2022 or so. i find it really hard to picture such a lazy guy doing the hard work of campaigning for president, let alone (theoretically) doing the hard work of being president (although there is likely some cheney to do it for him, but is rick up to even the portion of the job GWB was willing to do?)


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

Who links to my website?