If in fact the debt limit is not raised well beyond the August 2 target date, and the economy suffers the severe blow that experts, Democratic politicians, and most Republican politicians believe is likely to happen -- the dissenting Republican politicians such as Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and Louie Gohmert (and other insiders) will not, in fact, admit that they were wrong about it. Instead, they will blame Barack Obama for implementing the debt limit badly. And they will do so no matter how he implemented it (I'd say that would include if he did it precisely how they had advised, which would be true, except that I believe their position is mathematically impossible, so it won't be happening).
What's more, and this is only slightly less obvious and slightly less certain, they will almost certainly not be penalized within the GOP for being wrong. Indeed, what's far more likely is that if, as virtually all economists and budget experts currently insist, failure to raise the debt limit causes economic disaster, the likely effect within the GOP will be to enhance the prospects of those who claim that the experts don't know what they're talking about -- and any post-limit disaster will be considered yet another sign that the experts don't know what they're talking about.
Monday, July 25, 2011
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Long time reader, first time poster here... I just had to say thanks for making the point that there's no guarantee the GOP will suffer at the polls. I've been saying for a while that this is the most frustrating political angle to the debt negotiations.
ReplyDeleteThe ability to never be wrong is something that gets exploited far too often in politics.
Having managed to confuse everybody by conflating the debt ceiling with the deficit, they'll be able to argue that they were right -- the deficit problem had to be solved RIGHT NOW, and we didn't, and that's why the economy collapsed.
ReplyDeleteDonBoy,
ReplyDeleteYes, that too. Good point.
Perhaps a little overly cynical today...
ReplyDeleteWhat is it you think will happen to what remains of the moderate and/or sensible GOP electorate? Seems you suggest they'll just go along with whatever, and while some might, I can't see that happening to all of them. As cynical as I am I know there are the rational voters out there who will either defect from GOP or begin a fight to push out the crazies or bring them in line.
And while some of the electorate might be swallowing the crazies' rhetoric, big financial contributors won't generally fund economic catastrophe, and so gives greater urgency of moderate members to wrest away the party microphone.