Of course there will be a shutdown. There's an election coming up and winning elections is what two-party governance is all about. Each side must now prove it's more intransigent/determined than the other. I expect either 2 weeks or longer or a series of short-term shutdowns (shutdown/month extension/shutdown/month extension, etc.).
I don't think there is going to be a shutdown, unless both sides are completely out of touch with the American people. With their approval ratings as low as they are, neither side would look good and it wouldn't help either of them in the coming election.
it seems like the republicans are much more reluctant to play the shutdown game after the disastrous summer default fight, because they're becoming nervous about damaging the GOP brand going into '12. BUT it isn't clear that Boehner and his leadership team have total control the Republican caucus... they probably have enough control to prevent an utter disaster, but Democrats seem to be taking advantage of that fact. so, if the Democrats see an opening to make Boehner dance and decide to take it, then it's very likely that we'll have a prolonged and very embarrassing shutdown.
I have no idea. I expected a default. I expected someone to file articles of impeachment.
So, I'm not at all confident in my abilities to predict the extremity of these guys. Also, because Obama would get some of the blame, I'm not sure that a center-out coalition isn't possible (even though I'm sure that it wouldn't be a centrist budget, a number of Dems would vote for it to have government exist).
I think there will be a shutdown, but I have no confidence at all in that prediction.
my thoughts on a shutdown are on the What Mattered This Week thread, but here's a more practical question Jonathan: in this case, can there even be a three-day shutdown? It seems too short for there to be any point to it from a GOP standpoint. That is, if no CR passes before midnight on Fri. Sept. 30, that means Republicans want it, and Dems are giving them enough rope. After making the decision to go to shutdown, neither side is going to give in on Saturday or Sunday--there's no point. Maybe you get some movement on Monday, but then a new CR has to be drafted and passed by both chambers, which takes at least 2 days, yes? That's at least 5 days. And will they be able to agree that fast?
Not soon, but possibly at year's end. Boehner is up against it with corporate GOP, who are tired of the shenanigans. When the stupor committee deadlocks, you may see something then.
My sense is that a government shutdown is on the wishlist of the Tea Party freshmen and they won't be happy until Boehner lets them check that one off. So yes I would expect a shutdown. The conservative mythology is that the reason shutdowns didn't work vs Clinton is they didn't last long enough, so I would expect any shutdown to go much longer than 3 days.
If Europe and her governments, and the central government she needs and does not have, can look even more feckless and irresponsible than the US, then the pressure from the markets is on them, and not us.
Then the petulant little Tea-Partiers will be allowed to have their snit, once it's been established not so much that the markets won't tank, or won't tank that much, or that the tanking of the markets can be laid at the feet of someone who's not the GOP.
The Republicans will come up with a budget that massively changes the spending priorities of the federal government, and Obama will threaten to veto it, and then - wait for it - he'll cave, and there will be no shutdown.
I think there will be a shutdown; it's unavoidable at this point.
To answer the last poster: no way will Obama cave now. He's out there on the stump telling people that the GOP vision will cripple America. He has to stand firm now or he'll alienate the entire left and whatever independents are left, not just the far left.
This question really doesn't matter. The corporations have framed the conversation to their satisfaction, and the meat puppets in the Congress will do what their masters want, and it ain't what the "people" need or want.
He has to stand firm now or he'll alienate the entire left and whatever independents are left, not just the far left.
I agree, but it's important to remember that the far left can't exactly bail on Obama twice. The far left bailed on him either prior to his election, or the day after he was inaugurated. Leaving in a huff is what they do.
And in electoral terms, the far left fits in a phone booth with enough room left for the cash bar and the DJ.
Yes, but not an extended one. I think the Democrats regret not pushing the Republicans before the CR passed. I think they should have and feel that the debt ceiling debate gave the GOP more freedom due to this. I think the Democrats are sick of compromising with what they see as out of control Republicans. I think the issue of disaster aid is a hard one to defend shutting the government over and its probably not in the GOP's interest to extend this too long. They'll have lots of other opportunities to make trouble for Obama.
Of course there will be a shutdown. There's an election coming up and winning elections is what two-party governance is all about. Each side must now prove it's more intransigent/determined than the other. I expect either 2 weeks or longer or a series of short-term shutdowns (shutdown/month extension/shutdown/month extension, etc.).
ReplyDeleteI don't think there is going to be a shutdown, unless both sides are completely out of touch with the American people. With their approval ratings as low as they are, neither side would look good and it wouldn't help either of them in the coming election.
ReplyDeleteit seems like the republicans are much more reluctant to play the shutdown game after the disastrous summer default fight, because they're becoming nervous about damaging the GOP brand going into '12. BUT it isn't clear that Boehner and his leadership team have total control the Republican caucus... they probably have enough control to prevent an utter disaster, but Democrats seem to be taking advantage of that fact. so, if the Democrats see an opening to make Boehner dance and decide to take it, then it's very likely that we'll have a prolonged and very embarrassing shutdown.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea. I expected a default. I expected someone to file articles of impeachment.
ReplyDeleteSo, I'm not at all confident in my abilities to predict the extremity of these guys. Also, because Obama would get some of the blame, I'm not sure that a center-out coalition isn't possible (even though I'm sure that it wouldn't be a centrist budget, a number of Dems would vote for it to have government exist).
I think there will be a shutdown, but I have no confidence at all in that prediction.
my thoughts on a shutdown are on the What Mattered This Week thread, but here's a more practical question Jonathan: in this case, can there even be a three-day shutdown? It seems too short for there to be any point to it from a GOP standpoint. That is, if no CR passes before midnight on Fri. Sept. 30, that means Republicans want it, and Dems are giving them enough rope. After making the decision to go to shutdown, neither side is going to give in on Saturday or Sunday--there's no point. Maybe you get some movement on Monday, but then a new CR has to be drafted and passed by both chambers, which takes at least 2 days, yes? That's at least 5 days. And will they be able to agree that fast?
ReplyDeleteNot soon, but possibly at year's end. Boehner is up against it with corporate GOP, who are tired of the shenanigans. When the stupor committee deadlocks, you may see something then.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is that a government shutdown is on the wishlist of the Tea Party freshmen and they won't be happy until Boehner lets them check that one off. So yes I would expect a shutdown. The conservative mythology is that the reason shutdowns didn't work vs Clinton is they didn't last long enough, so I would expect any shutdown to go much longer than 3 days.
ReplyDeleteIt's up to Angela Merkel.
ReplyDeleteIf Europe and her governments, and the central government she needs and does not have, can look even more feckless and irresponsible than the US, then the pressure from the markets is on them, and not us.
Then the petulant little Tea-Partiers will be allowed to have their snit, once it's been established not so much that the markets won't tank, or won't tank that much, or that the tanking of the markets can be laid at the feet of someone who's not the GOP.
The Republicans will come up with a budget that massively changes the spending priorities of the federal government, and Obama will threaten to veto it, and then - wait for it - he'll cave, and there will be no shutdown.
ReplyDeleteI think there will be a shutdown; it's unavoidable at this point.
ReplyDeleteTo answer the last poster: no way will Obama cave now. He's out there on the stump telling people that the GOP vision will cripple America. He has to stand firm now or he'll alienate the entire left and whatever independents are left, not just the far left.
Whatever happens, it's always entirely their fault.
ReplyDeleteThis question really doesn't matter. The corporations have framed the conversation to their satisfaction, and the meat puppets in the Congress will do what their masters want, and it ain't what the "people" need or want.
ReplyDeleteHe has to stand firm now or he'll alienate the entire left and whatever independents are left, not just the far left.
ReplyDeleteI agree, but it's important to remember that the far left can't exactly bail on Obama twice. The far left bailed on him either prior to his election, or the day after he was inaugurated. Leaving in a huff is what they do.
And in electoral terms, the far left fits in a phone booth with enough room left for the cash bar and the DJ.
Yes, but not an extended one. I think the Democrats regret not pushing the Republicans before the CR passed. I think they should have and feel that the debt ceiling debate gave the GOP more freedom due to this. I think the Democrats are sick of compromising with what they see as out of control Republicans. I think the issue of disaster aid is a hard one to defend shutting the government over and its probably not in the GOP's interest to extend this too long. They'll have lots of other opportunities to make trouble for Obama.
ReplyDelete